Bibliography - Michael Winton

1. Griffies, Stephen, Robert W Hallberg, A Pirani, Bonita L Samuels, and Michael Winton, et al., January 2009: Coordinated ocean-ice reference experiments (COREs). Ocean Modelling, 26(1-2), doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2008.08.007.
   [ Abstract ]

   Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs) are presented as a tool to explore the behaviour of global ocean-ice models under forcing from a common atmospheric dataset. We highlight issues arising when designing coupled global ocean and sea ice experiments, such as difficulties formulating a consistent forcing methodology and experimental protocol. Particular focus is given to the hydrological forcing, the details of which are key to realizing simulations with stable meridional overturning circulations. The atmospheric forcing from [Large, W., Yeager, S., 2004. Diurnal to decadal global forcing for ocean and sea-ice models: the data sets and flux climatologies. NCAR Technical Note: NCAR/TN-460+STR. CGD Division of the National Center for Atmospheric Research] was developed for coupled-ocean and sea ice models. We found it to be suitable for our purposes, even though its evaluation originally focussed more on the ocean than on the sea-ice. Simulations with this atmospheric forcing are presented from seven global ocean-ice models using the CORE-I design (repeating annual cycle of atmospheric forcing for 500 years). These simulations test the hypothesis that global ocean-ice models run under the same atmospheric state produce qualitatively similar simulations. The validity of this hypothesis is shown to depend on the chosen diagnostic. The CORE simulations provide feedback to the fidelity of the atmospheric forcing and model configuration, with identification of biases promoting avenues for forcing dataset and/or model development.

2. Winton, Michael, K Takahashi, and Isaac Held, in press: Importance of ocean heat uptake efficacy to transient climate change. Journal of Climate. 3/09.
3. Winton, Michael, December 2008: Sea ice - Albedo feedback and nonlinear Arctic climate change In Arctic Sea Ice Decline, Washington, DC, American Geophysical Union, 111-131.
   [ Abstract PDF ]

   The potential for sea ice-albedo feedback to give rise to nonlinear climate change in the Arctic Ocean defined as a nonlinear relationship between polar and global temperature change or, equivalently, a time-varying polar amplification is explored in IPCC AR4 climate models. Five models supplying SRES A1B ensembles for the 21st century are examined and very linear relationships are found between polar and global temperatures (indicating linear Arctic Ocean climate change), and between polar temperature and albedo (the potential source of nonlinearity). Two of the climate models have Arctic Ocean simulations that become annually sea ice-free under the stronger CO₂ increase to quadrupling forcing. Both of these runs show increases in polar amplification at polar temperatures above -5°C and one exhibits heat budget changes that are consisten with the small ice cap instability of simple energy balance models. Both models show linear warming up to a polar temperature of -5° well above the disappearance of their September ice covers at about -9°C. Below -5°C, surface albedo decreases smoothly as reductions move, progressively, to earlier parts of the sunlit period. Atmospheric heat transport exerts a strong cooling effect during the transition to annually ice-free conditions. Specialized experiments with atmosphere and coupled models show that the main damping mechanism for sea ice region surface temperature is reduced upward heat flux through the adjacent ice-free oceans resulting in reduced atmospheric heat transport into the region.

4. Balaji, Ventakramani, Thomas L Delworth, Robert W Hallberg, Hiram Levy II, Ronald J Stouffer, and Michael Winton, 2007: Toward a new generation of ice sheet models. EOS, 88(52), 578-579.
5. Delworth, Thomas L., Anthony J Broccoli, Anthony Rosati, Ronald J Stouffer, Ventakramani Balaji, J A Beesley, W F Cooke, Keith W Dixon, John Dunne, Krista A Dunne, J W Durachta, Kirsten L Findell, Paul Ginoux, Anand Gnanadesikan, C Tony Gordon, Stephen Griffies, Rich Gudgel, Matthew J Harrison, Isaac Held, Richard S Hemler, Larry Horowitz, Stephen A Klein, Thomas R Knutson, P J Kushner, A R Langenhorst, H C Lee, Shian-Jiann Lin, Jian Lu, S Malyshev, P C D Milly, V Ramaswamy, J L Russell, M Daniel Schwarzkopf, Elena Shevliakova, Joseph J Sirutis, Michael J Spelman, William F Stern, Michael Winton, Andrew T Wittenberg, Bruce Wyman, Fanrong Zeng, and Rong Zhang, 2006: GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part I: Formulation and Simulation Characteristics. Journal of Climate, 19(5), doi:10.1175/JCLI3629.1.
   [ Abstract ]

   The formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled climate models developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) are described. The models were designed to simulate atmospheric and oceanic climate and variability from the diurnal time scale through multicentury climate change, given our computational constraints. In particular, an important goal was to use the same model for both experimental seasonal to interannual forecasting and the study of multicentury global climate change, and this goal has been achieved. Two versions of the coupled model are described, called CM2.0 and CM2.1. The versions differ primarily in the dynamical core used in the atmospheric component, along with the cloud tuning and some details of the land and ocean components. For both coupled models, the resolution of the land and atmospheric components is 2° latitude × 2.5° longitude; the atmospheric model has 24 vertical levels. The ocean resolution is 1° in latitude and longitude, with meridional resolution equatorward of 30° becoming progressively finer, such that the meridional resolution is 1/3° at the equator. There are 50 vertical levels in the ocean, with 22 evenly spaced levels within the top 220 m. The ocean component has poles over North America and Eurasia to avoid polar filtering. Neither coupled model employs flux adjustments. The control simulations have stable, realistic climates when integrated over multiple centuries. Both models have simulations of ENSO that are substantially improved relative to previous GFDL coupled models. The CM2.0 model has been further evaluated as an ENSO forecast model and has good skill (CM2.1 has not been evaluated as an ENSO forecast model). Generally reduced temperature and salinity biases exist in CM2.1 relative to CM2.0. These reductions are associated with 1) improved simulations of surface wind stress in CM2.1 and associated changes in oceanic gyre circulations; 2) changes in cloud tuning and the land model, both of which act to increase the net surface shortwave radiation in CM2.1, thereby reducing an overall cold bias present in CM2.0; and 3) a reduction of ocean lateral viscosity in the extratropics in CM2.1, which reduces sea ice biases in the North Atlantic. Both models have been used to conduct a suite of climate change simulations for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report and are able to simulate the main features of the observed warming of the twentieth century. The climate sensitivities of the CM2.0 and CM2.1 models are 2.9 and 3.4 K, respectively. These sensitivities are defined by coupling the atmospheric components of CM2.0 and CM2.1 to a slab ocean model and allowing the model to come into equilibrium with a doubling of atmospheric CO2. The output from a suite of integrations conducted with these models is freely available online (see http://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov/). Manuscript received 8 December 2004, in final form 18 March 2005

6. Gnanadesikan, Anand, Keith W Dixon, Stephen Griffies, Ventakramani Balaji, M Barreiro, J A Beesley, W F Cooke, Thomas L Delworth, R Gerdes, Matthew J Harrison, Isaac Held, William J Hurlin, H C Lee, Z Liang, G Nong, Ronald C Pacanowski, Anthony Rosati, J L Russell, Bonita L Samuels, Qian Song, Michael J Spelman, Ronald J Stouffer, C Sweeney, G A Vecchi, Michael Winton, Andrew T Wittenberg, Fanrong Zeng, Rong Zhang, and John Dunne, 2006: GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part II: The baseline ocean simulation. Journal of Climate, 19(5), doi:10.1175/JCLI3630.1.
   [ Abstract ]

   The current generation of coupled climate models run at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) as part of the Climate Change Science Program contains ocean components that differ in almost every respect from those contained in previous generations of GFDL climate models. This paper summarizes the new physical features of the models and examines the simulations that they produce. Of the two new coupled climate model versions 2.1 (CM2.1) and 2.0 (CM2.0), the CM2.1 model represents a major improvement over CM2.0 in most of the major oceanic features examined, with strikingly lower drifts in hydrographic fields such as temperature and salinity, more realistic ventilation of the deep ocean, and currents that are closer to their observed values. Regional analysis of the differences between the models highlights the importance of wind stress in determining the circulation, particularly in the Southern Ocean. At present, major errors in both models are associated with Northern Hemisphere Mode Waters and outflows from overflows, particularly the Mediterranean Sea and Red Sea.

7. Stouffer, Ronald J., Thomas L Delworth, Keith W Dixon, Rich Gudgel, Isaac Held, Richard S Hemler, Thomas R Knutson, M Daniel Schwarzkopf, Michael J Spelman, Michael Winton, Anthony J Broccoli, H C Lee, Fanrong Zeng, and Brian J Soden, 2006: GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part IV: Idealized Climate Response. Journal of Climate, 19(5), doi:10.1175/JCLI3632.1.
   [ Abstract ]

   The climate response to idealized changes in the atmospheric CO2 concentration by the new GFDL climate model (CM2) is documented. This new model is very different from earlier GFDL models in its parameterizations of subgrid-scale physical processes, numerical algorithms, and resolution. The model was constructed to be useful for both seasonal-to-interannual predictions and climate change research. Unlike previous versions of the global coupled GFDL climate models, CM2 does not use flux adjustments to maintain a stable control climate. Results from two model versions, Climate Model versions 2.0 (CM2.0) and 2.1 (CM2.1), are presented. Two atmosphere–mixed layer ocean or slab models, Slab Model versions 2.0 (SM2.0) and 2.1 (SM2.1), are constructed corresponding to CM2.0 and CM2.1. Using the SM2 models to estimate the climate sensitivity, it is found that the equilibrium globally averaged surface air temperature increases 2.9 (SM2.0) and 3.4 K (SM2.1) for a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. When forced by a 1% per year CO2 increase, the surface air temperature difference around the time of CO2 doubling [transient climate response (TCR)] is about 1.6 K for both coupled model versions (CM2.0 and CM2.1). The simulated warming is near the median of the responses documented for the climate models used in the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I Third Assessment Report (TAR). The thermohaline circulation (THC) weakened in response to increasing atmospheric CO2. By the time of CO2 doubling, the weakening in CM2.1 is larger than that found in CM2.0: 7 and 4 Sv (1 Sv 106 m3 s−1), respectively. However, the THC in the control integration of CM2.1 is stronger than in CM2.0, so that the percentage change in the THC between the two versions is more similar. The average THC change for the models presented in the TAR is about 3 or 4 Sv; however, the range across the model results is very large, varying from a slight increase (+2 Sv) to a large decrease (−10 Sv).

8. Winton, Michael, 2006: Amplified Arctic climate change: What does surface albedo feedback have to do with it? Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L03701, doi:10.1029/2005GL025244.
   [ Abstract PDF ]

   A group of twelve IPCC fourth assessment report (AR4) climate models have Arctic (60N–90N) warmings that are, on average, 1.9 times greater than their global warmings at the time of CO2 doubling in 1%/year CO2 increase experiments. Forcings and feedbacks that impact the warming response are estimated for both Arctic and global regions based on standard model diagnostics. Fitting a zero-dimensional energy balance model to each region, an expression is derived that gives the Arctic amplification as a function of these forcings and feedbacks. Contributing to Arctic amplification are the Arctic-global differences in surface albedo feedback (SAF), longwave feedback and the net top-of-atmosphere flux forcing (the sum of the surface flux and the atmospheric heat transport convergence). The doubled CO2 forcing and non-SAF shortwave feedback oppose Arctic amplification. SAF is shown to be a contributing, but not a dominating, factor in the simulated Arctic amplification and its intermodel variation.

9. Winton, Michael, 2006: Does the Arctic sea ice have a tipping point? Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L23504, doi:10.1029/2006GL028017.
   [ Abstract PDF ]

   Two IPCC fourth assessment report climate models have Arctic Ocean simulations that become sea-ice-free year around in 1%/year CO2 increase to quadrupling experiments. These runs are examined for evidence of accelerated climate change associated with the removal of sea ice, particularly due to increasing surface albedo feedback. Both models become seasonally ice-free at an annual mean polar temperature of −9°C without registering much impact on the surface albedo feedback or disturbing the linear relationship between Arctic Ocean climate change and that of the surrounding region. When the polar temperature rises above −5°C, however, there is a sharp increase in the surface albedo feedback of one of the models, driving an abrupt elimination of Arctic ice and an increase in temperature above that expected from warming of the surrounding region. The transition to ice-free conditions is more linear in the other model, with ocean heat flux playing the primary driving role.

10. Winton, Michael, 2006: Surface Albedo Feedback Estimates for the AR4 Climate Models. Journal of Climate, 19(3), 359-365.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    A technique for estimating surface albedo feedback (SAF) from standard monthly mean climate model diagnostics is applied to the 1% yr−1 carbon dioxide (CO2)-increase transient climate change integrations of 12 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report (AR4) climate models. Over the 80-yr runs, the models produce a mean SAF at the surface of 0.3 W m−2 K−1 with a standard deviation of 0.09 W m−2 K−1. Relative to 2 × CO2 equilibrium run estimates from an earlier group of models, both the mean SAF and the standard deviation are reduced. Three-quarters of the model mean SAF comes from the Northern Hemisphere in roughly equal parts from the land and ocean areas. The remainder is due to Southern Hemisphere ocean areas. The SAF differences between the models are shown to stem mainly from the sensitivity of the surface albedo to surface temperature rather from the impact of a given surface albedo change on the shortwave budget.

11. Griffies, Stephen, Anand Gnanadesikan, Keith W Dixon, John Dunne, R Gerdes, Matthew J Harrison, Anthony Rosati, J L Russell, Bonita L Samuels, Michael J Spelman, Michael Winton, and Rong Zhang, 2005: Formulation of an ocean model for global climate simulations. Ocean Science, 1, 45-79.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    This paper summarizes the formulation of the ocean component to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL) climate model used for the 4th IPCC Assessment (AR4) of global climate change. In particular, it reviews the numerical schemes and physical parameterizations that make up an ocean climate model and how these schemes are pieced together for use in a state-of-the-art climate model. Features of the model described here include the following: (1) tripolar grid to resolve the Arctic Ocean without polar filtering, (2) partial bottom step representation of topography to better represent topographically influenced advective and wave processes, (3) more accurate equation of state, (4) three-dimensional flux limited tracer advection to reduce overshoots and undershoots, (5) incorporation of regional climatological variability in shortwave penetration, (6) neutral physics parameterization for representation of the pathways of tracer transport, (7) staggered time stepping for tracer conservation and numerical efficiency, (8) anisotropic horizontal viscosities for representation of equatorial currents, (9) parameterization of exchange with marginal seas, (10) incorporation of a free surface that accomodates a dynamic ice model and wave propagation, (11) transport of water across the ocean free surface to eliminate unphysical "virtual tracer flux" methods, (12) parameterization of tidal mixing on continental shelves. We also present preliminary analyses of two particularly important sensitivities isolated during the development process, namely the details of how parameterized subgridscale eddies transport momentum and tracers.

12. Herweijer, C, R Seager, Michael Winton, and A C Clement, 2005: Why ocean heat transport warms the global mean climate. Tellus A, 57(4), doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00121.
    [ Abstract ]

    Observational and modelling evidence suggest that poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) can vary in response to both natural climate variability and greenhouse warming. Recent modelling studies have shown that increased OHT warms both the tropical and global mean climates. Using two different coupled climate models with mixed-layer oceans, with and without OHT, along with a coupled model with a fixed-current ocean component in which the currents are uniformly reduced and increased by 50%, an attempt is made to explain why this may happen. OHT warms the global mean climate by 1 to 1.6 K in the atmospheric general circulation (AGCM) ML model and 3.5 K in the AGCM fixed current model. In each model the warming is attributed to an increase in atmospheric greenhouse trapping, primarily clear-sky greenhouse trapping, and a reduction in albedo. This occurs as OHT moistens the atmosphere, particularly at subtropical latitudes. This is not purely a thermodynamic response to the reduction in planetary albedo at these latitudes. It is a change in atmospheric circulation that both redistributes the water vapour and allows for a global atmospheric moistening—a positive 'dynamical' water vapour feedback. With increasing OHT the atmospheric water vapour content increases as atmospheric convection spreads out of the deep tropics. The global mean planetary albedo is decreased with increased OHT. This change is explained by a decrease in subtropical and mid-latitude low cloudiness, along with a reduction in high-latitude surface albedo due to decreased sea ice. The climate models with the mixed layer oceans underestimate both the subtropical low cloud cover and the high-latitude sea ice/surface albedo, and consequently have a smaller warming response to OHT.

13. Winton, Michael, 2005: Simple optical models for diagnosing surface-atmosphere shortwave interactions. Journal of Climate, 18(18), 3796-3805.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    A technique is developed for diagnosing effective surface and atmospheric optical properties from climate model shortwave flux diagnostics. These properties can be used to distinguish the contributions of surface and atmospheric optical property changes to shortwave flux changes at the surface and top of the atmosphere. In addition to the four standard shortwave flux diagnostics (upward, downward, surface, and top of atmosphere), the technique makes use of surface-down and top-up fluxes over a zero-albedo surface obtained from an auxiliary online shortwave calculation. The simple model optical properties, when constructed from the time-mean fluxes, are effective optical properties, useful for predicting the time-mean response to optical property changes. The technique is tested against auxiliary online shortwave calculations at four validation albedos and shown to predict the monthly mean surface absorption with an rms error of less than 2% over the globe. The reasons for the accuracy of the technique are explored. Less accurate techniques that make use of existing shortwave diagnostics are presented and compared.

14. Winton, Michael, 2003: On the climatic impact of ocean circulation. Journal of Climate, 16(17), 2875-2889.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    Integrations of coupled climate models with mixed-layer and fixed-current ocean components are used to explore the climatic response to varying magnitudes of ocean circulation. Four mixed-layer ocean experiments without ocean heat transports are performed using two different atmosphere-land components--the new GFDL AM2 and the GFDL Manabe Climate Model (MCM)--and two different sea ice components, one dynamic and one thermodynamic. Both experiments employing the dynamic sea ice component develop unstable growth of sea ice while the experiments with a thermodynamic sea ice component develop very large but stable ice covers. The global cooling ranges from modest to extreme in the four experiments. Using the fixed-current climate model, a trio of 100-yr integrations are made with control currents from a GFDL R30 ocean simulation, same currents reduced by 50%, and same currents increased by 50%. This suite is performed with two coupled models again employing the two atmosphere-land components, AM2 and MCM, for a total of six experiments. Both models show a large sensitivity of the sea ice extent to the magnitude of currents with increased currents reducing the extent and warming the high latitudes. Low cloud cover also responds to circulation changes in both models but in the opposite sense. In the AM2-based model, low cloudiness decreases as ocean circulation increases, reinforcing the sea ice changes in reducing the planetary reflectivity, and warming the climate. This cloudiness change is associated with a reduction in lower-atmospheric stability over the ocean. Because the AM2-based model is able to simulate the observed seasonal low cloud-stability relationship and the changes in these quantities with altered ocean circulation are consistent with this relationship, the AM2 interpretation of the cloud changes is favored.

15. Cubasch, U, G A Meehl, G J Boer, Ronald J Stouffer, M R Dix, A Noda, C A Senior, S C B Raper, K S Yap, A Abe-Ouchi, S Brinkop, M Claussen, M Collins, J Evans, I Fischer-Bruns, J C Fyfe, A Ganopolski, J M Gregory, Z-Z Hu, F Joos, Thomas R Knutson, R Knutti, C Landsea, L Mearns, P C D Milly, J F B Mitchell, T Nozawa, H Paeth, J Räisänen, R Sausen, S Smith, T F Stocker, A Timmermann, U Ulbrich, A J Weaver, J Wegner, P Whetton, T M L Wigley, Michael Winton, and F Zwiers, 2001: Projections of future climate change In Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press, 526-582.
16. Gregory, J M., J A Church, G J Boer, Keith W Dixon, G M Flato, D R Jackett, J A Lowe, S P O'Farrell, M M Rienecker, G Russell, Ronald J Stouffer, and Michael Winton, 2001: Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900-2100. Climate Dynamics, 18(3/4), 225-240.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario 1892a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990-2090 it amounts to 0.20-0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modeling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements.

17. Winton, Michael, 2000: A reformulated three-layer sea ice model. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 17(4), 525-531.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    A model is presented that provides an efficient approximation to sea ice thermodynamics for climate studies. Semtner's three-layer framework is used, but the brine content of the upper ice is represented with a variable heat capacity as is done in more physically based models. A noniterative fully implicit time-stepping scheme is used for calculation of ice temperature. The results of the new model are compared to those of Semtner's original model.

18. Winton, Michael, 1999: Polar water column stability. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 29(6), 1368-1371.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    An expression is derived for the surface salt input needed to induce complete convective overturning of a polar water column consisting of 1) a layer of sea ice, 2) a freezing temperature mixed layer, 3) a pycnocline with linearly varying temperature and salinity, and 4) deep water with fixed temperature and salinity. This quantity has been termed the bulk stability by Martinson. The bulk stability is found to consist of three components. The first two make up Martinson's salt deficit and are the salt input needed to increase the density of the mixed layer and the pycnocline layer to that of the deep water (the mixed layer stability and pycnocline layer stability, respectively). The third component is Martinson's thermal barrier: the potential for pycnocline heat to melt ice, reducing the surface salinity. It is found that when the pycnocline density gradient due to temperature offsets more than one half of that due to salinity, the pycnocline layer stability is negative. Consequently, it is possible for a stably stratified water column to have zero or negative bulk stability.

19. Martinson, D G., D S Battisti, R Bradley, J Cole, R Fine, M Ghil, Y Kushnir, Syukuro Manabe, M S McCartney, P McCormick, M J Prather, E Sarachik, P P Tans, L Thompson, and Michael Winton, 1998: Decade-to-Century-Scale Climate Variability and Climate Change: A Science Strategy, Washington, D.C.: National Research Council, 42 pp.
20. Winton, Michael, Robert W Hallberg, and Anand Gnanadesikan, 1998: Simulation of density-driven frictional downslope flow in z-coordinate ocean models. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 28(11), 2163-2174.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    An important component of the ocean's thermohaline circulation is the sinking of dense water from continental shelves to abyssal depths. Such downslope flow is thought to be a consequence of bottom stress retarding the alongslope flow of density-driven plumes. In this paper the authors explore the potential for explicitly simulating the simple mechanism in z-coordinate models. A series of experiments are performed using a twin density-coordinate model simulation as a standard of comparison. The adiabatic nature of the experiments and the importance of bottom slope make it more likely that the density-coordinate model will faithfully reproduce the solution. The difficulty of maintaining the density signal as the plume descends the slope is found to be the main impediment to accurate simulation in the z-coordinate model. The results of process experiments suggest that the model solutions will converge when the z-coordinate model has sufficient vertical resolution to resolve the bottom viscous layer and horizontal grid spacing equal to its vertical grid spacing divided by the maximum slope. When this criterion is met it is shown that the z-coordinate model converges to an analytical solution for a simple two-dimensional flow.

21. Winton, Michael, 1997: The damping effect of bottom topography on internal decadal-scale oscillations of the thermohaline circulation. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 27(1), 203-208.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    By comparing the response of flat and bowl-shaped basins to fixed heat fluxes of various magnitudes, it is determined that coastal topography has a considerable damping influence upon internal decadal oscillations of the thermohaline circulation. It is proposed that this is because the adjustment of baroclinic currents to the no-normal-flow boundary condition at weakly stratified coasts is aided in the topography case by the generation of substantial barotropic flow.

22. Winton, Michael, 1997: The effect of cold climate upon North Atlantic Deep Water formation in a simple ocean-atmosphere model. Journal of Climate, 10(1), 37-51.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    The sensitivity of North Atlantic Deep Water formation to variations in mean surfae temperature is explored with a meridional-vertical plane ocean model coupled to an energy balance atmosphere. It is found that North Atlantic Deep Water formation is favored by a warm climate, while cold climates are more likely to produce Southern Ocean deep water or deep-decoupling oscillations (when the Southern sinking region is halocline covered). This behavior is traced to a cooling-induced convective instability near the North Atlantic sinking region, that is, to unstable horizontal spreading of a halocline that stratifies part of the region. Under the convective instability it is found that climate cooling is generally equivalent to increased freshwater forcing. This is because in a cold climate, high-latitude water masses approach the temperature of maximum density and the convection-driving, upward thermal buoyancy flux induced by surface cooling becomes insufficient to overcome the stratifying effect of surface freshening (a downward buoyancy flux). An extensive halocline is then formed and this halocline interferes with the heat loss necessary for the steady production of North Atlantic Deep Water.

23. Winton, Michael, 1996: The role of horizontal boundaries in parameter sensitivity and decadal-scale variability of coarse-resolution ocean general circulation models. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 26(3), 289-304.
    [ Abstract PDF ]

    Coarse-resolution f-plane and beta-plane frictional geostrophic models are used to study the response to restored surface buoyancies and fixed surface buoyancy fluxes. With restored surface buoyancies it is found that the overturning and meridional buoyancy transport generally follow the scaling from thermal wind and vertical advective-diffusive balance. When maximum midbasin rather than maximum overall streamfunction is used as the metric, the sensitivity of overturning magnitude to vertical diffusivity agrees quite closely with that of a two-dimensional Rayleigh frictional model that follows an analogous scaling. This measure of meridional overturning, as well as the meridional buoyancy transport, also roughly follow the predicted f ^-1/3 scaling and are relatively insensitive to variations in beta and horizontal viscosity. The sensitivity experiments indicate that the coarse-resolution model overturning and thermodynamic structure are well characterized by the adjustment of a uniformly rotating viscous fluid to boundaries parallel to the surface forcing gradient. This adjustment is examined in more detail with linear and nonlinear models. In stratified regions, thermal wind currents normal to the coast initiate the adjustment by forcing pycnocline depth anomalies in the coastal (horizontal) Ekman layer. These anomalies propagate around the coast in the Kelvin wave direction, setting up geostrophic currents parallel to the coast. In a model initialized with a high-latitude baroclinic jet, a warm (cold) boundary signal spreads around the poleward (equatorward) part of the basin, initiating geostrophic currents connecting the flow onto the coast in the east with that away from the coast in the west to form two gyres. The warm coastal signal propagates slowly along the weakly stratified polar wall. In steady circulations, strong damping inhibits warm signal propagation, and the warm water on the poleward part of the eastern coast is forced to downwell. Self-sustaining decadal-scale oscillation is a robust feature of the models when forced with fixed buoyancy fluxes. This variability is inherently three-dimensional (it does not occur in a two-dimensional frictional model) and involves the periodic growth and decay of a baroclinic jet in the poleward eastern corner. Decay occurs when a jetlike disturbance, normal to the coast, propagates cyclonically around the basin replacing the cold water along the boundary with warm. Forcing of thermal wind currents normal to weakly stratified coasts and weak damping of the resulting propagating boundary disturbances are found to be conducive to oscillations.

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