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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: MARCH 2009
CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased
0.2 percent in March, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The index has
decreased 0.4 percent over the last year, the first 12 month decline since
August 1955.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U decreased 0.1 percent in
March after rising 0.4 percent in February. The decrease was due to a
downturn in the energy index, which declined 3.0 percent in March after
rising 3.3 percent the previous month. All the energy indexes decreased,
particularly the indexes for fuel oil, natural gas, and motor fuel. The
food index declined 0.1 percent for the second straight month to virtually
the same level as October 2008. The food at home index declined 0.4
percent, the second straight such decrease, as the index for dairy and
related products continued to decline.
The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent
for the third month in a row. An 11.0 percent increase in the index for
tobacco and smoking products accounted for over sixty percent of the March
rise, with a 0.6 percent increase in the new vehicles index also
contributing. In contrast, the indexes for lodging away from home, used
cars and trucks, and airline fares continued to decline. The index for
all items less food and energy has risen 1.8 percent over the past year.
Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)
Seasonally adjusted
Expenditure Compound
Category Changes from preceding month annual Un-
rate adjusted
3-mos. 12-mos.
Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. ended ended
2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 Mar. 2009 Mar. 2009
All items.......... .0 -.8 -1.7 -.8 .3 .4 -.1 2.2 -.4
Food and beverages .5 .4 .2 .1 .1 -.1 -.1 -.7 4.3
Housing........... -.1 .0 -.1 .0 .0 .0 -.1 -.5 1.4
Apparel........... -.3 -.7 .1 -.6 .3 1.3 -.2 5.3 1.4
Transportation.... -.1 -4.8 -9.7 -5.0 1.3 1.9 -1.1 8.8 -13.1
Medical care...... .3 .2 .2 .3 .4 .3 .2 4.0 2.8
Recreation........ .2 .2 .0 -.2 .0 .4 .0 1.8 1.7
Education and
communication.. .1 .2 .2 .3 .3 .2 .2 2.9 3.6
Other goods and
services....... .2 .3 .0 .0 .3 .2 2.7 13.5 5.7
Special indexes:
Energy............ -1.0 -7.8 -16.9 -9.3 1.7 3.3 -3.0 7.9 -23.0
Food.............. .5 .4 .2 .0 .1 -.1 -.1 -.8 4.4
All items less
food and energy .1 .0 .1 .0 .2 .2 .2 2.2 1.8
The food and beverages index declined 0.1 percent in March, the same
decrease as in February. A 0.4 percent decrease in the food at home index
more than offset 0.1 percent increases in the indexes for food away from
home and for alcoholic beverages. Within food at home, the indexes for
three of the six major grocery store food groups declined. The largest
decline was in the dairy and related products index, which fell 2.4
percent in March, the same decrease as in February, as the milk index
declined 4.4 percent. The index for meats, poultry, fish and eggs
decreased 0.9 percent, the fifth straight monthly decline, as the index
for eggs fell 4.6 percent and the beef index declined 1.4 percent. The
index for cereals and bakery products also declined in March, while the
other food at home index was virtually unchanged. Registering increases
in March were the indexes for fruits and vegetables and for nonalcoholic
beverages. The food index has increased 4.4 percent over the past year,
with the food at home index up 4.3 percent.
After being virtually unchanged in February, the housing index
declined 0.1 percent in March. The shelter index was virtually unchanged
in March. The indexes for rent and owners' equivalent rent both rose 0.2
percent, but these increases were offset by a 2.4 percent decrease in the
index for lodging away from home. This was the sixth straight monthly
decline in that index, which has fallen 7.8 percent over the past year.
The index for household energy decreased 1.8 percent in March. The
indexes for fuel oil and natural gas, which have been falling since last
summer, continued to decline in March, with the fuel oil index falling 8.5
percent and the index for natural gas decreasing 4.8 percent. The
electricity index turned down in March, falling 0.2 percent after rising
0.5 percent in February. The index for household furnishings and
operations rose 0.3 percent in March. Over the past year, the housing
index has risen 1.4 percent, with the shelter index up 1.5 percent and the
household energy index down 0.5 percent.
The index for transportation declined 1.1 percent in March after
rising 1.9 percent in February. The gasoline index, which rose 8.3
percent in February, declined 4.0 percent in March. (Prior to seasonal
adjustment, gasoline prices rose 1.0 percent in March.) The index for new
and used motor vehicles was virtually unchanged in March, as a 0.6 percent
increase in the new vehicles index offset a 1.7 percent decline in the
index for used cars and trucks. The index for public transportation
declined 1.0 percent in March as the airline fare index fell 2.3 percent.
This was the seventh straight monthly decline for the airline fares index;
it has decreased 7.7 percent over the last 12 months. The transportation
index has declined 13.1 percent since March 2008, with the index for
gasoline down 39.3 percent.
Among other CPI groups, the index for apparel turned down in March,
declining 0.2 percent after rising 1.3 percent in February. (On a not
seasonally adjusted basis, apparel prices rose 3.1 percent in March and
were up 1.4 percent over the past year.) The medical care index rose 0.2
percent in March and has increased 2.8 percent over the past year. The
index for recreation was virtually unchanged in March and was up 1.7
percent over the past year. The index for education and communication
rose 0.2 percent in March, with the education index up 0.5 percent and the
communication index virtually unchanged. The index for other goods and
services rose 2.7 percent in March due to the 11.0 percent increase in the
tobacco and smoking products index.
Year-to-Date Change
For the first three months of 2009, consumer prices increase at a
seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 2.2 percent. This compares
to a 0.1 percent increase for all of 2008. The index for energy, which
fell 21.3 percent in 2008, advanced at a 7.9 SAAR in the first quarter of
2009. Petroleum-based energy costs rose at a 29.1 percent rate and energy
services decreased at an 8.5 percent rate. The food index fell at a SAAR
of 0.8 percent in the first quarter of 2009 after rising 5.9 percent
during 2008. The food at home index, which rose 6.6 percent during 2008,
fell at a 3.6 percent SAAR in the first quarter of 2009.
Excluding food and energy, the CPU-U rose at a 2.2 percent SAAR
during the first quarter of 2009 after increasing 1.8 percent during 2008.
Advances during the first quarter in the indexes for tobacco, new
vehicles, medical care, and apparel contributed to the rise, while
declines in the indexes for lodging away from home and public
transportation mitigated the increase.
Percentage change 12 months ended in December
SAAR 3
mos.
ended
Mar.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
All items........... 2.4 1.9 3.3 3.4 2.5 4.1 0.1 2.2
Food and beverages 1.5 3.5 2.6 2.3 2.2 4.8 5.8 -.7
Housing............ 2.4 2.2 3.0 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.4 -.5
Apparel............ -1.8 -2.1 -.2 -1.1 .9 -.3 -1.0 5.3
Transportation..... 3.8 .3 6.5 4.8 1.6 8.3 -13.3 8.8
Medical care....... 5.0 3.7 4.2 4.3 3.6 5.2 2.6 4.0
Recreation......... 1.1 1.1 .7 1.1 1.0 .8 1.8 1.8
Education and
communication..... 2.2 1.6 1.5 2.4 2.3 3.0 3.6 2.9
Other goods and
services.......... 3.3 1.5 2.5 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.4 13.5
Special indexes:
Energy............. 10.7 6.9 16.6 17.1 2.9 17.4 -21.3 7.9
Energy commodities 23.7 6.9 26.7 16.7 6.1 29.4 -40.5 29.1
Energy services... .4 6.9 6.8 17.6 -.6 3.4 7.7 -8.5
All items less
energy............ 1.8 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.8 2.4 1.7
Food.............. 1.5 3.6 2.7 2.3 2.1 4.9 5.9 -.8
All items less food
and energy........ 1.9 1.1 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.4 1.8 2.2
CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers
(CPI-W) increased 0.2 percent in March, prior to seasonal adjustment. The
index value of 207.218 was 0.9 percent lower than in March 2008. On a
seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-W decreased 0.1 percent in March.
Table B. Percent changes in CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)
Seasonally adjusted
Expenditure Compound
Category Changes from preceding month annual Un-
rate adjusted
3-mos. 12-mos.
Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. ended ended
2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 Mar. 2009 Mar. 2009
All items.......... .0 -1.0 -2.1 -1.0 .3 .4 -.1 2.6 -.9
Food and beverages .5 .4 .2 .1 .0 -.2 -.1 -1.1 4.4
Housing........... -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 -.1 -.1 1.8
Apparel........... .0 -1.0 .0 -.6 .6 1.0 -.3 5.4 1.1
Transportation.... -.1 -5.3 -10.9 -5.6 1.5 2.0 -1.3 8.8 -15.2
Medical care...... .3 .1 .2 .3 .4 .4 .2 4.1 2.9
Recreation........ .2 .1 .0 -.1 .0 .4 .0 1.9 1.5
Education and
communication.. .0 .2 .2 .3 .2 .2 .2 2.2 3.3
Other goods and
services....... .2 .3 .1 .1 .4 .2 3.9 19.5 7.6
Special indexes:
Energy............ -.8 -8.2 -17.8 -9.7 1.9 3.6 -3.1 9.5 -24.0
Food.............. .5 .4 .2 .1 .0 -.2 -.1 -1.1 4.5
All items less
food and energy .1 .0 .1 .0 .2 .2 .2 2.6 1.8
Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U)
The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U)
increased 0.2 percent in March on a not seasonally adjusted basis. The
index has decreased 0.8 percent over the past year. Please note that the
indexes for the post-2007 period are subject to revision.
Upcoming release
Consumer Price Index data for April are scheduled for release on Friday,
May 15, 2009, at 8:30 A.M. (EDT).
Facilities for Sensory Impaired
Information from this release will be made available to sensory
impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200, Federal
Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.
Brief Explanation of the CPI
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in
prices over time of goods and services purchased by households. The
Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPIs for two population groups: (1)
the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which covers
households of wage earners and clerical workers that comprise
approximately 32 percent of the total population and (2) the CPI for All
Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained CPI for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-
U), which cover approximately 87 percent of the total population and
include in addition to wage earners and clerical worker households, groups
such as professional, managerial, and technical workers, the self-
employed, short-term workers, the unemployed, and retirees and others not
in the labor force.
The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, and fuels,
transportation fares, charges for doctors' and dentists' services, drugs,
and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living.
Prices are collected in 87 urban areas across the country from about
50,000 housing units and approximately 23,000 retail establishments-
department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other
types of stores and service establishments. All taxes directly associated
with the purchase and use of items are included in the index. Prices of
fuels and a few other items are obtained every month in all 87 locations.
Prices of most other commodities and services are collected every month in
the three largest geographic areas and every other month in other areas.
Prices of most goods and services are obtained by personal visits or
telephone calls of the Bureau's trained representatives.
In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each
location are averaged together with weights, which represent their
importance in the spending of the appropriate population group. Local
data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average. For the CPI-U and
CPI-W separate indexes are also published by size of city, by region of
the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size
classes, and for 27 local areas. Area indexes do not measure differences
in the level of prices among cities; they only measure the average change
in prices for each area since the base period. For the C-CPI-U data are
issued only at the national level. It is important to note that the CPI-U
and CPI-W are considered final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in
preliminary form and subject to two annual revisions.
The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For
the CPI-U and the CPI-W the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100.0. The
reference base for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals 100.
An increase of 16.5 percent from the reference base, for example, is shown
as 116.5. This change can also be expressed in dollars as follows: the
price of a base period market basket of goods and services in the CPI has
risen from $10 in 1982-84 to $11.65.
For further details visit the CPI home page on the Internet at
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ or contact our CPI Information and Analysis
Section on (202) 691-7000.
Note on Sampling Error in the Consumer Price Index
The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error
because it is based upon a sample of retail prices and not the complete
universe of all prices. BLS calculates and publishes estimates of the 1-
month, 2-month, 6-month and 12-month percent change standard errors
annually, for the CPI-U. These standard error estimates can be used to
construct confidence intervals for hypothesis testing. For example, the
estimated standard error of the 1 month percent change is 0.06 percent for
the U.S. All Items Consumer Price Index. This means that if we repeatedly
sample from the universe of all retail prices using the same methodology,
and estimate a percentage change for each sample, then 95% of these
estimates would be within 0.12 percent of the 1 month percentage change
based on all retail prices. For a 1-month change of 0.2 percent in the
All Items CPI for All Urban Consumers, we are 95 percent confident that
the actual percent change based on all retail prices would fall between
0.08 and 0.32 percent. For the latest data, including information on how
to use the estimates of standard error, see "Variance Estimates for
Changes in the Consumer Price Index, January 2005- December 2005" in the
CPI Detailed Report, February 2006. These data are available on the CPI
home page (http://www.bls.gov/cpi), using the following link
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpivar2006.pdf
Calculating Index Changes
Movements of the indexes from one month to another are usually
expressed as percent changes rather than changes in index points, because
index point changes are affected by the level of the index in relation to
its
base period while percent changes are not. The example below illustrates
the computation of index point and percent changes.
Percent changes for 3-month and 6-month periods are expressed as
annual rates and are computed according to the standard formula for
compound growth rates. These data indicate what the percent change would
be if the current rate were maintained for a 12-month period.
Index Point Change
CPI
202.416
Less previous index
201.800
Equals index point change
.616
Percent Change
Index point difference
.616
Divided by the previous index
201.800
Equals
0.003
Results multiplied by one hundred
0.003x100
Equals percent change
0.3
Regions Defined
The states in the four regions shown in Tables 3 and 6 are listed below.
The Northeast--Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York,
New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
The Midwest--Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota,
Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
The South--Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky,
Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina,
Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia.
The West--Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana,
Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.
A Note on Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data
Because price data are used for different purposes by different
groups, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes seasonally adjusted as
well as unadjusted changes each month.
For analyzing general price trends in the economy, seasonally
adjusted changes are usually preferred since they eliminate the effect of
changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same
magnitude every year--such as price movements resulting from changing
climatic conditions, production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and
sales.
The unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned
about the prices they actually pay. Unadjusted data also are used
extensively for escalation purposes. Many collective bargaining contract
agreements and pension plans, for example, tie compensation changes to the
Consumer Price Index before adjustment for seasonal variation.
Seasonal factors used in computing the seasonally adjusted indexes
are derived by the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Method. Seasonally
adjusted indexes and seasonal factors are computed annually. Each year,
the last 5 years of seasonally adjusted data are revised. Data from
January 2004 through December 2008 were replaced in January 2009.
Exceptions to the usual revision schedule were: the updated seasonal data
at the end of 1977 replaced data from 1967 through 1977; and, in January
2002, dependently seasonally adjusted series were revised for January 1987-
December 2001 as a result of a change in the aggregation weights for
dependently adjusted series. For further information, please see
"Aggregation of Dependently Adjusted Seasonally Adjusted Series," in the
October 2001 issue of the CPI Detailed Report.
The seasonal movement of all items and 54 other aggregations is
derived by combining the seasonal movement of 73 selected components.
Each year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon
certain statistical criteria. If any of the 73 components change their
seasonal adjustment status from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally
adjusted, not seasonally adjusted data will be used in the aggregation of
the dependent series for the last 5 years, but the seasonally adjusted
indexes will be used before that period. Note: 47 of the 73 components
are seasonally adjusted for 2009.
Seasonally adjusted data, including the all items index levels, are
subject to revision for up to five years after their original release.
For this reason, BLS advises against the use of these data in escalation
agreements.
Effective with the calculation of the seasonal factors for 1990, the
Bureau of Labor Statistics has used an enhanced seasonal adjustment
procedure called Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment for some CPI
series. Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment allows for better
estimates of seasonally adjusted data. Extreme values and/or sharp
movements which might distort the seasonal pattern are estimated and
removed from the data prior to calculation of seasonal factors. Beginning
with the calculation of seasonal factors for 1996, X-12-ARIMA software was
used for Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment.
For the seasonal factors introduced in January 2009, BLS adjusted 29
series using Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment, including selected
food and beverage items, motor fuels, electricity and vehicles. For
example, this procedure was used for the Motor fuel series to offset the
effects of events such as damage to oil refineries from Hurricane Katrina.
For a complete list of Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment
series and explanations, please refer to the article "Intervention
Analysis Seasonal Adjustment", located on our website at
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpisapage.htm.
For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI, please
write to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Division of Consumer Prices and
Price Indexes, Washington, DC 20212 or contact Jeff Wilson at (202) 691-
6968, or by e-mail at Wilson.Jeff@bls.gov. If you have general questions
about the CPI, please call our information staff at (202) 691-7000.
.
