Table 1. Comparison of the Natural History Outcomes from the Microsimulation Screening Analysis (MISCAN) and Simulation Model of Colorectal Cancer (SimCRC) Models
| Outcome |
MISCAN, by Age, %* |
SimCRC, by Age, %* |
| 40 y |
50 y |
60 y |
40 y |
50 y |
60 y |
| Adenoma prevalence |
10.9 |
28.7 |
36.7 |
10.2 |
18.3 |
29.5 |
| Size distribution of adenomas |
| ≤5 mm |
60.9 |
64.8 |
52.6 |
59.3 |
53.9 |
51.1 |
| 6—9 mm |
20.9 |
19.0 |
25.3 |
31.6 |
34.4 |
35.8 |
| ≥10 mm |
18.2 |
16.2 |
22.1 |
9.1 |
11.7 |
13.0 |
| Location of adenomas |
| Proximal |
34.3 |
34.3 |
34.3 |
62.0 |
62.4 |
62.8 |
| Distal |
34.5 |
34.5 |
34.5 |
30.5 |
30.4 |
30.3 |
| Rectum |
31.2 |
31.2 |
31.2 |
7.5 |
7.2 |
6.8 |
| Cumulative CRC incidence |
| 10 y |
0.2 |
0.7 |
1.6 |
0.2 |
0.7 |
1.4 |
| 20 y |
0.9 |
2.3 |
4.0 |
0.9 |
2.1 |
3.4 |
| Lifetime |
7.3 |
7.1 |
6.4 |
6.2 |
5.9 |
5.3 |
| Stage distribution of CRC cases |
| Stage I |
16.6 |
21.1 |
19.3 |
24.0 |
21.9 |
19.4 |
| Stage II |
23.0 |
28.3 |
31.4 |
39.6 |
35.1 |
34.8 |
| Stage III |
33.7 |
26.3 |
26.1 |
20.0 |
22.2 |
22.6 |
| Stage IV |
26.7 |
24.4 |
23.2 |
16.4 |
20.7 |
23.2 |
CRC = colorectal cancer.
* Because of rounding, not all percentages add to 100%.
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