FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. EDT, Friday, August 13, 1999 CB-99-154 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES June 1999 Notice of Revised Estimates. The adjusted and unadjusted monthly retail and wholesale estimates for sales and inventories were revised base results from the 1997 Census of Retail Trade data and the 1997 Census of Wholesale Trade data, respectively. Manufacturing estimates were no Sales. The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments for June, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were estimated at $829.2 billion, up 0.9 percent (+ or -0.2%) from May and were up 6.9 percent (+ or -0.3%) from June 1998. Total durable goods were up 0.5 percent (+ or -0.3%) from May and were up 7.4 percent (+ or -0.6%) from June 1998. Total nondurable goods increased 1.3 percent (+ or -0.2%) from May and were up 6.4 percent (+ or -0.4%) from June 1998. Inventories. Manufacturers' and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,112.7 billion, up 0.3 percent (+ or -0.1%) from May and up 3.2 percent (+ or -0.3%) from June 1998. Total durable goods were up 0.5 percent (+ or -0.2%) from May and were up 4.0 percent (+ or -0.5%) from June 1998. Total nondurable goods increased 0.1 percent (+ or -0.2%) from May and were up 1.9 percent (+ or -0.5%) from June 1998. Inventories/Sales Ratio. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of June was 1.34. The June 1998 ratio was 1.39. Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales and Inventories for Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers (In millions of dollars) Sales Inventories(1) Inventories/Sales Ratios Jun. 99 May 99 Jun 99 Jun. 99 May 99 Jun. 98 Jun. 99 May 99 Jun 98 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Adjusted (2) Total business.............. 829,248 821,761 775,648 1,112,714 1,108,901 1,078,506 1.34 1.35 1.39 Durable........................ 425,671 423,364 396,367 677,400 674,236 651,476 1.59 1.59 1.64 Nondurable..................... 403,577 398,397 379,281 435,314 434,665 427,030 1.08 1.09 1.13 Manufacturers(3)............ 354,284 350,624 335,110 463,316 463,742 466,701 1.31 1.32 1.39 Durable........................ 201,169 199,425 186,536 291,853 292,403 295,143 1.45 1.47 1.58 Nondurable..................... 153,115 151,199 148,574 171,463 171,339 171,558 1.12 1.13 1.15 Retailers................... 246,841 247,228 229,878 358,423 354,943 332,924 1.45 1.44 1.45 Durable........................ 102,904 103,884 96,092 194,829 192,144 174,289 1.89 1.85 1.81 Nondurable..................... 143,937 143,344 133,786 163,594 162,799 158,635 1.14 1.14 1.19 Merchant wholesalers 228,123 223,909 210,660 290,975 290,216 278,881 1.28 1.30 1.32 Durable........................ 121,598 120,055 113,739 190,718 189,689 182,044 1.57 1.58 1.60 Nondurable..................... 106,525 103,854 96,921 100,257 100,527 96,837 0.94 0.97 1.00 Not Adjusted Total business.............. 869,438 825,802 813,712 1,099,998 1,108,300 1,066,165 1.27 1.34 1.31 Durable........................ 458,889 425,316 429,019 675,730 681,122 649,752 1.47 1.60 1.51 Nondurable..................... 410,549 400,486 384,693 424,268 427,178 416,413 1.03 1.07 1.08 Manufacturers............... 379,596 349,625 358,824 461,207 467,701 464,495 1.21 1.34 1.29 Durable........................ 219,513 198,773 204,742 290,526 295,610 293,750 1.32 1.49 1.43 Nondurable..................... 160,083 150,852 154,082 170,681 172,091 170,745 1.07 1.14 1.11 Retailers................... 252,321 254,372 234,836 351,198 352,260 325,913 1.39 1.38 1.39 Durable........................ 110,969 109,416 103,681 193,650 194,212 173,201 1.75 1.77 1.67 Nondurable..................... 141,352 144,956 131,155 157,548 158,048 152,712 1.11 1.09 1.16 Merchant wholesalers. 237,521 221,805 220,052 287,593 288,339 275,757 1.21 1.30 1.25 Durable........................ 128,407 117,127 120,596 191,554 191,300 182,801 1.49 1.63 1.52 Nondurable..................... 109,114 104,678 99,456 96,039 97,039 92,956 0.88 0.93 0.93 See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3. Table 2. Percent Changes for Sales and Inventories -- Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers Adjusted Not Adjusted Sales Inventories Sales Inventories Jun 99/ May 99/ Jun 99/ Jun 99/ May 99/ Jun 99/ Jun 99/ May 99/ Jun 99/ Jun 99/ May 99/ Jun 99/ May 99 Apr 99 Jun 98 May 99 Apr 99 Jun 98 May 99 Apr 99 Jun 98 May 99 Apr 99 Jun 98 Total business.............. 0.9 1.2 6.9 0.3 0.3 3.2 5.3 2.1 6.8 -0.7 -0.4 3.2 Durable........................ 0.5 1.5 7.4 0.5 0.4 4.0 7.9 1.8 7.0 -0.8 0.1 4.0 Nondurable..................... 1.3 0.9 6.4 0.1 0.1 1.9 2.5 2.4 6.7 -0.7 -1.2 1.9 Manufacturers............... 1.0 0.9 5.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.7 8.6 1.7 5.8 -1.4 0.5 -0.7 Durable........................ 0.9 1.1 7.8 -0.2 0.0 -1.1 10.4 2.1 7.2 -1.7 0.5 -1.1 Nondurable..................... 1.3 0.6 3.1 0.1 0.3 -0.1 6.1 1.2 3.9 -0.8 0.4 0.0 Retailers................... -0.2 1.0 7.4 1.0 0.6 7.7 -0.8 4.8 7.4 -0.3 -1.1 7.8 Durable........................ -0.9 1.9 7.1 1.4 1.0 11.8 1.4 5.2 7.0 -0.3 -1.1 11.8 Nondurable..................... 0.4 0.3 7.6 0.5 0.1 3.1 -2.5 4.5 7.8 -0.3 -1.0 3.2 Merchant wholesalers. 1.9 1.8 8.3 0.3 0.2 4.3 7.1 -0.3 7.9 -0.3 -1.1 4.3 Durable........................ 1.3 1.6 6.9 0.5 0.6 4.8 9.6 -1.6 6.5 0.1 0.5 4.8 Nondurable..................... 2.6 2.0 9.9 -0.3 -0.5 3.5 4.2 1.2 9.7 -1.0 -4.3 3.3 Table 3. Estimated Monthly Retail Sales, Inventories, and Inventories/Sales Ratios, by Kind of Business (In millions of dollars) SIC Sales Inventories(1) Percent Change Inventories/Sales Code Kind of Business In Inventories Ratios Jun. 99 May 99 Jun 99 Jun 1999 May 1999 Jun 1998 Jun. 99/ May 99/ Jun 99/ Jun 99 May 99 Jun 98 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) May 99 Apr 99 Jun. 98 Adjusted(2) Retail trade, total...... 246,841 247,228 229,878 358,423 354,943 332,924 1.0 0.6 7.7 1.45 1.44 1.45 Total (excl. auto deal 185,593 185,484 172,609 251,338 250,231 241,797 0.4 0.2 3.9 1.35 1.35 1.40 Durable goods, total..... 102,904 103,884 96,092 194,829 192,144 174,289 1.4 1.0 11.8 1.89 1.85 1.81 52 Building materials group stores.. 14,970 15,215 13,630 28,448 28,493 25,757 -0.2 0.3 10.4 1.90 1.87 1.89 55 Automotive dealers............... 61,248 61,744 57,269 107,085 104,712 91,127 2.3 1.5 17.5 1.75 1.70 1.59 57 Furniture group stores........... 13,552 13,476 12,539 25,625 25,415 24,757 0.8 -1.2 3.5 1.89 1.89 1.97 Nondurable goods, total.. 143,937 143,344 133,786 163,594 162,799 158,635 0.5 0.1 3.1 1.14 1.14 1.19 53 General merchandise group stores. 31,560 31,386 29,252 60,884 61,138 59,829 -0.4 0.1 1.8 1.93 1.95 2.05 531 Dept. strs. (excl. leased dept 24,706 24,558 23,021 49,672 49,938 49,169 -0.5 0.2 1.0 2.01 2.03 2.14 54 Food group stores................ 38,241 38,264 36,496 30,413 30,278 29,576 0.4 0.9 2.8 0.80 0.79 0.81 56 Apparel and accessory stores..... 11,413 11,459 10,564 26,098 26,017 25,515 0.3 0.3 2.3 2.29 2.27 2.42 Not Adjusted Retail trade, total...... 252,321 254,372 234,836 351,198 352,260 325,913 -0.3 -1.1 7.8 1.39 1.38 1.39 Total (excl. auto deal 184,605 188,266 171,532 244,183 245,201 234,674 -0.4 -0.6 4.1 1.32 1.30 1.37 Durable goods, total..... 110,969 109,416 103,681 193,650 194,212 173,201 -0.3 -1.1 11.8 1.75 1.77 1.67 52 Building materials group stores.. 17,518 17,916 16,028 29,045 29,690 26,298 -2.2 -0.2 10.4 1.66 1.66 1.64 55 Automotive dealers............... 67,716 66,106 63,304 107,015 107,059 91,239 0.0 -2.0 17.3 1.58 1.62 1.44 57 Furniture group stores........... 12,942 12,631 11,986 24,626 24,576 23,767 0.2 -2.3 3.6 1.90 1.95 1.98 Nondurable goods, total.. 141,352 144,956 131,155 157,548 158,048 152,712 -0.3 -1.0 3.2 1.11 1.09 1.16 53 General merchandise group stores. 30,135 31,241 27,639 57,709 59,020 56,705 -2.2 -1.0 1.8 1.92 1.89 2.05 531 Dept. strs. (excl. leased dept 23,298 24,411 21,502 46,990 48,290 46,514 -2.7 -1.0 1.0 2.02 1.98 2.16 54 Food group stores................ 38,155 39,260 36,198 29,951 29,738 29,123 0.7 0.3 2.8 0.78 0.76 0.80 56 Apparel and accessory stores..... 10,601 11,200 9,844 24,950 25,002 24,367 -0.2 -1.5 2.4 2.35 2.23 2.48 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (s) Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment. No revisions were made to Not Adjusted data. (1) Inventories are on a non-LIFO basis as of the end of the month. (2) Adjusted for seasonal variations and, in the case of sales, for trading- day differences and holiday variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment and inventory estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-11 program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the current and previous month estimates and for retail and wholesale estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance estimates (published one month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the advance month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year ago. (3) Manufacturers sales refers to the value of shipments by manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as well as for any variations in the length of the reporting period. Note: The Manufacturing and Trade Inventory and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The sampling variability for retailers and merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent confidence interval for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will cover the true estimate. These intervals are given in parentheses for the estimates on the front page. If, for example, the estimate is up 0.8 percent and the margin of sampling error is +/-1.2 percent, the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.4 percent to +2.0 percent. If the range contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. Manufacturers do not contribute to estimates of sampling variability because the manufacturer's mail panel is not a probability sample from a known frame and standard errors of the industry estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also subject to nonsampling errors which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such errors include coverage error (failure to accurately represent all population units in the sample), response errors, coding errors, and nonresponse. Although no direct measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the collection, processing, and tabulation of the data to minimize their influence.