FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. EDT, Thursday, July 15, 1999 CB-99-136 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES May 1999 Intention to Revise: Revisions to the adjusted and unadjusted monthly estimates for sales and inventories have been rescheduled for release follows: Retail the week of July 26, Wholesale the week of August 2. Manufacturing estimates will not be revised. Revisions to the Retail an Wholesale estimates will be reflected in the June 1999 Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Report. Sales. The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments for May, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were estimated at $819.5 billion, up 1.2 percent (+/-0.2%) from April and were up 6.3 percent (+/-0.4%) from May 1998. Total durable goods were up 1.5 percent (+/-0.4%) from April and were up 7.6 percent (+/-0.6%) from May 1998. Total nondurable goods increased 0.8 percent (+/-0.2%) from April and were up 5.0 percent (+/-0.7%) from May 1998. Inventories. Manufacturers' and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,101.2 billion, up 0.3 percent (+/-0.1%) from April and up 3.0 percent (+/-0.9%) from May 1998. Total durable goods were up 0.4 percent (+/-0.2%) from April and were up 3.1 percent (+/-1.3%) from May 1998. Total nondurable goods increased 0.2 percent (+/-0.2%) from April and were up 2.7 percent (+/-0.7%) from May 1998. Inventories/Sales Ratio. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of May was 1.34. The May 1998 ratio was 1.39. Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales and Inventories for Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers (In millions of dollars) Sales Inventories1 Inventories/Sales Ratios May 99 Apr. 99 May 98 May 99 Apr. 99 May 98 May 99Apr. 99May 98 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Adjusted2 Total business.............. 819,521 810,005 770,842 1,101,166 1,097,779 1,069,568 1.34 1.36 1.39 Durable........................ 422,985 416,754 393,199 670,835 668,456 650,673 1.59 1.60 1.65 Nondurable..................... 396,536 393,251 377,643 430,331 429,323 418,895 1.09 1.09 1.11 Manufacturers3.............. 350,856 347,568 333,622 463,960 463,194 465,729 1.32 1.33 1.40 Durable........................ 199,699 197,246 185,789 292,461 292,415 294,375 1.46 1.48 1.58 Nondurable..................... 151,157 150,322 147,833 171,499 170,779 171,354 1.13 1.14 1.16 Retailers................... 243,165 240,170 224,576 347,562 345,703 326,093 1.43 1.44 1.45 Durable........................ 103,794 101,442 94,604 189,325 187,837 173,474 1.82 1.85 1.83 Nondurable..................... 139,371 138,728 129,972 158,237 157,866 152,619 1.14 1.14 1.17 Merchant wholesalers 225,500 222,267 212,644 289,644 288,882 277,746 1.28 1.30 1.31 Durable........................ 119,492 118,066 112,806 189,049 188,204 182,824 1.58 1.59 1.62 Nondurable..................... 106,008 104,201 99,838 100,595 100,678 94,922 0.95 0.97 0.95 Not Adjusted Total business.............. 824,617 807,161 776,074 1,100,654 1,105,178 1,069,564 1.33 1.37 1.38 Durable........................ 425,518 417,271 396,064 677,858 677,619 657,355 1.59 1.62 1.66 Nondurable..................... 399,099 389,890 380,010 422,796 427,559 412,209 1.06 1.10 1.08 Manufacturers............... 350,410 343,780 333,343 467,830 465,450 469,773 1.34 1.35 1.41 Durable........................ 199,280 194,694 185,809 295,586 294,019 297,637 1.48 1.51 1.60 Nondurable..................... 151,130 149,086 147,534 172,244 171,431 172,136 1.14 1.15 1.17 Retailers................... 250,193 238,326 232,369 345,000 348,774 323,443 1.38 1.46 1.39 Durable........................ 109,270 103,675 100,113 191,374 193,774 175,248 1.75 1.87 1.75 Nondurable..................... 140,923 134,651 132,256 153,626 155,000 148,195 1.09 1.15 1.12 Merchant wholesalers. 224,014 225,055 210,362 287,824 290,954 276,348 1.28 1.29 1.31 Durable........................ 116,968 118,902 110,142 190,898 189,826 184,470 1.63 1.60 1.67 Nondurable..................... 107,046 106,153 100,220 96,926 101,128 91,878 0.91 0.95 0.92 See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3. Table 2. Percent Changes for Sales and Inventories -- Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers Adjusted Not Adjusted Sales Inventories Sales Inventories May 99/ Apr 99/ May 99/ May 99/ Apr 99/ May 99/ May 99/Apr 99/May 99/May 99/Apr 99/May 99/ Apr 99 Mar 99 May 98 Apr 99 Mar 99 May 98 Apr 99 Mar 99 May 98 Apr 99 Mar 99 May 98 Total business.............. 1.2 0.0 6.3 0.3 0.2 3.0 2.2 -4.7 6.3 -0.4 0.7 2.9 Durable........................ 1.5 -0.3 7.6 0.4 0.0 3.1 2.0 -6.9 7.4 0.0 0.9 3.1 Nondurable..................... 0.8 0.4 5.0 0.2 0.4 2.7 2.4 -2.3 5.0 -1.1 0.4 2.6 Manufacturers............... 0.9 -0.4 5.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 1.9 -6.9 5.1 0.5 0.6 -0.4 Durable........................ 1.2 -0.5 7.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.7 2.4 -9.6 7.2 0.5 0.5 -0.7 Nondurable..................... 0.6 -0.3 2.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.4 -3.0 2.4 0.5 0.9 0.1 Retailers................... 1.2 0.5 8.3 0.5 0.6 6.6 5.0 -0.7 7.7 -1.1 1.3 6.7 Durable........................ 2.3 -0.2 9.7 0.8 1.0 9.1 5.4 -1.3 9.1 -1.2 2.1 9.2 Nondurable..................... 0.5 1.0 7.2 0.2 0.1 3.7 4.7 -0.2 6.6 -0.9 0.3 3.7 Merchant wholesalers. 1.5 0.2 6.0 0.3 0.2 4.3 -0.5 -5.5 6.5 -1.1 0.1 4.2 Durable........................ 1.2 -0.1 5.9 0.4 -0.4 3.4 -1.6 -7.0 6.2 0.6 0.3 3.5 Nondurable..................... 1.7 0.6 6.2 -0.1 1.1 6.0 0.8 -3.7 6.8 -4.2 -0.3 5.5 Table 3. Estimated Monthly Retail Sales, Inventories, and Inventories/Sales Ratios, by Kind of Business (In millions of dollars) SIC Sales Inventories1 Percent Change Inventories/Sales Code Kind of Business In Inventories Ratios May 99 Apr. 99 May 98 May 99 Apr. 99 May 98 May 99 Apr. 99May 99 May 99 Apr 99 May 98 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Apr. 99 Mar. 99May 98 Adjusted2 Retail trade, total...... 243,165 240,170 224,576 347,562 345,703 326,093 0.5 0.6 6.6 1.43 1.44 1.45 Total (excl. auto deal 181,881 180,977 168,853 246,203 245,688 235,926 0.2 0.2 4.4 1.35 1.36 1.40 Durable goods, total..... 103,794 101,442 94,604 189,325 187,837 173,474 0.8 1.0 9.1 1.82 1.85 1.83 52 Building materials group stores.. 15,390 15,394 13,791 28,734 28,631 25,716 0.4 0.7 11.7 1.87 1.86 1.86 55 Automotive dealers............... 61,284 59,193 55,723 101,359 100,015 90,167 1.3 1.4 12.4 1.65 1.69 1.62 57 Furniture group stores........... 14,189 14,090 13,039 25,868 26,216 25,128 -1.3 0.9 2.9 1.82 1.86 1.93 Nondurable goods, total.. 139,371 138,728 129,972 158,237 157,866 152,619 0.2 0.1 3.7 1.14 1.14 1.17 53 General merchandise group stores. 31,564 31,459 29,354 60,864 60,686 58,920 0.3 0.1 3.3 1.93 1.93 2.01 531 Dept. strs. (excl. leased dept 24,685 24,622 23,216 49,730 49,533 48,476 0.4 0.0 2.6 2.01 2.01 2.09 54 Food group stores................ 38,732 38,271 36,758 30,519 30,262 29,610 0.8 -0.5 3.1 0.79 0.79 0.81 56 Apparel and accessory stores..... 11,203 11,125 10,355 25,617 25,589 24,844 0.1 -0.3 3.1 2.29 2.30 2.40 Not Adjusted Retail trade, total...... 250,193 238,326 232,369 345,000 348,774 323,443 -1.1 1.3 6.7 1.38 1.46 1.39 Total (excl. auto deal 184,478 175,708 172,197 241,284 242,927 231,092 -0.7 1.0 4.4 1.31 1.38 1.34 Durable goods, total..... 109,270 103,675 100,113 191,374 193,774 175,248 -1.2 2.1 9.2 1.75 1.87 1.75 52 Building materials group stores.. 18,034 16,882 16,158 29,855 30,005 26,719 -0.5 2.1 11.7 1.66 1.78 1.65 55 Automotive dealers............... 65,715 62,618 60,172 103,716 105,847 92,351 -2.0 1.9 12.3 1.58 1.69 1.53 57 Furniture group stores........... 13,327 12,827 12,298 25,040 25,639 24,299 -2.3 2.7 3.0 1.88 2.00 1.98 Nondurable goods, total.. 140,923 134,651 132,256 153,626 155,000 148,195 -0.9 0.3 3.7 1.09 1.15 1.12 53 General merchandise group stores. 31,380 29,201 29,373 58,705 59,217 56,833 -0.9 1.1 3.3 1.87 2.03 1.93 531 Dept. strs. (excl. leased dept 24,512 22,874 23,193 48,039 48,443 46,828 -0.8 1.0 2.6 1.96 2.12 2.02 54 Food group stores................ 39,727 37,594 37,981 30,006 29,911 29,110 0.3 -1.3 3.1 0.76 0.80 0.77 56 Apparel and accessory stores..... 10,909 10,582 10,152 24,618 25,077 23,900 -1.8 -0.5 3.0 2.26 2.37 2.35 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (s) Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment. No revisions were made to Not Adjusted data. (1) Inventories are on a non-LIFO basis as of the end of the month. (2) Adjusted for seasonal variations and, in the case of sales, for trading- day differences and holiday variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment and inventory estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-11 program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the current and previous month estimates and for retail and wholesale estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance estimates (published one month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the advance month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year ago. (3) Manufacturers sales refers to the value of shipments by manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as well as for any variations in the length of the reporting period. Note: The Manufacturing and Trade Inventory and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The sampling variability for retailers and merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent confidence interval for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will cover the true estimate. These intervals are given in parentheses for the estimates on the front page. If, for example, the estimate is up 0.8 percent and the margin of sampling error is +/-1.2 percent, the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.4 percent to +2.0 percent. If the range contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. Manufacturers do not contribute to estimates of sampling variability because the manufacturer's mail panel is not a probability sample from a known frame and standard errors of the industry estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also subject to nonsampling errors which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such errors include coverage error (failure to accurately represent all population units in the sample), response errors, coding errors, and nonresponse. Although no direct measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the collection, processing, and tabulation of the data to minimize their influence.