FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. EDT, WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 1998 CB-98-168 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES July 1998 SALES The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments for July, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at $773.8 billion, down 0.1 percent (+/-0.2%) from June but were up 2.5 percent (+/-0.4%) above July 1997. Total durable goods decreased 0.6 percent (+/-0.4%) from June but were 2.8 percent (+/-0.5%) above July 1997. Total nondurable goods increased 0.4 percent (+/-0.2%) from June and were up 2.1 percent (+/- 0.6%) above July 1997. INVENTORIES Manufacturers' and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,070.7 billion, virtually unchanged (+/-0.5%) from June but were up 3.5 percent (+/-0.4%) above July 1997. Total durable goods decreased 0.1 percent (+/-0.2%) from June but were up 3.0 percent (+/-0.7%) above July 1997. Total nondurable goods increased 0.2 percent (+/-0.2%) from June and were up 4.4 percent (+/-0.6%) above July 1997. INVENTORIES/SALES RATIO The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of July was 1.38. The July 1997 ratio was 1.37. Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales and Inventories for Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers (In millions of dollars) Sales Inventories/1 Inventories/Sales Ratios Jul. 1998 Jun. 199Jul. 199Jul. 1998 Jun. 1998 Jul. 1997 Jul. 1998Jun. 19Jul. 1997 Adjusted/2 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Total business............ 773,770 774,639 755,088 1,070,696 1,070,515 1,034,478 1.38 1.38 1.37 Durable...................... 393,934 396,214 383,203 648,650 649,408 630,037 1.65 1.64 1.64 Nondurable................... 379,836 378,425 371,885 422,046 421,107 404,441 1.11 1.11 1.09 Manufacturers/3........... 334,861 335,110 331,331 468,057 466,701 449,657 1.40 1.39 1.36 Durable...................... 185,885 186,536 183,484 296,010 295,143 283,723 1.59 1.58 1.55 Nondurable................... 148,976 148,574 147,847 172,047 171,558 165,934 1.15 1.15 1.12 Retailers................. 224,372 225,625 214,935 325,741 326,296 321,304 1.45 1.45 1.49 Durable...................... 93,285 95,284 88,589 171,129 171,952 172,870 1.83 1.80 1.95 Nondurable................... 131,087 130,341 126,346 154,612 154,344 148,434 1.18 1.18 1.17 Merchant wholesalers...... 214,537 213,904 208,822 276,898 277,518 263,517 1.29 1.30 1.26 Durable...................... 114,764 114,394 111,130 181,511 182,313 173,444 1.58 1.59 1.56 Nondurable................... 99,773 99,510 97,692 95,387 95,205 90,073 0.96 0.96 0.92 Not Adjusted Total business............ 747,433 812,179 727,616 1,061,413 1,058,236 1,024,803 1.42 1.30 1.41 Durable...................... 371,991 428,483 361,237 645,887 647,388 626,855 1.74 1.51 1.74 Nondurable................... 375,442 383,696 366,379 415,526 410,848 397,948 1.11 1.07 1.09 Manufacturers............. 302,251 358,824 298,607 469,411 464,495 451,052 1.55 1.29 1.51 Durable...................... 158,589 204,742 156,192 297,493 293,750 285,204 1.88 1.43 1.83 Nondurable................... 143,662 154,082 142,415 171,918 170,745 165,848 1.20 1.11 1.16 Retailers................. 228,893 230,837 218,017 315,892 319,330 311,224 1.38 1.38 1.43 Durable...................... 98,040 103,255 92,904 164,570 170,985 166,004 1.68 1.66 1.79 Nondurable................... 130,853 127,582 125,113 151,322 148,345 145,220 1.16 1.16 1.16 Merchant wholesalers...... 216,289 222,518 210,992 276,110 274,411 262,527 1.28 1.23 1.24 Durable...................... 115,362 120,486 112,141 183,824 182,653 175,647 1.59 1.52 1.57 Nondurable................... 100,927 102,032 98,851 92,286 91,758 86,880 0.91 0.90 0.88 See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3. (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (s) Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment. No revisions were made to Not Adjusted data. Table 2. Percent Changes for Sales and Inventories -- Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers Adjusted Not Adjusted Sales Inventories Sales Inventories Jul. 98/ Jun. 98/Jul. 98/Jul. 98/ Jun. 98/ Jul. 98/ Jul. 98/ Jun. 98Jul. 98Jul. 98Jun. 98Jul. 98 Jun. 98 May 98 Jul. 97 Jun. 98 May 98 Jul. 97 Jun. 98 May 98Jul. 97Jun. 98May 98Jul. 97 Total business............ -0.1 0.3 2.5 0.0 0.0 3.5 -8.0 4.7 2.7 0.3 -1.1 3.6 Durable...................... -0.6 0.5 2.8 -0.1 -0.3 3.0 -13.2 8.2 3.0 -0.2 -1.5 3.0 Nondurable................... 0.4 0.0 2.1 0.2 0.5 4.4 -2.2 1.0 2.5 1.1 -0.3 4.4 Manufacturers............. -0.1 0.4 1.1 0.3 0.2 4.1 -15.8 7.6 1.2 1.1 -1.1 4.1 Durable...................... -0.3 0.4 1.3 0.3 0.3 4.3 -22.5 10.2 1.5 1.3 -1.3 4.3 Nondurable................... 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 3.7 -6.8 4.4 0.9 0.7 -0.8 3.7 Retailers................. -0.6 0.1 4.4 -0.2 -0.1 1.4 -0.8 -0.7 5.0 -1.1 -1.3 1.5 Durable...................... -2.1 0.1 5.3 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 -5.1 3.1 5.5 -3.8 -2.4 -0.9 Nondurable................... 0.6 0.1 3.8 0.2 0.9 4.2 2.6 -3.5 4.6 2.0 0.1 4.2 Merchant wholesalers...... 0.3 0.2 2.7 -0.2 -0.1 5.1 -2.8 5.8 2.5 0.6 -0.7 5.2 Durable...................... 0.3 1.1 3.3 -0.4 -0.5 4.7 -4.3 9.4 2.9 0.6 -1.0 4.7 Nondurable................... 0.3 -0.7 2.1 0.2 0.7 5.9 -1.1 1.8 2.1 0.6 -0.1 6.2 Table 3. Estimated Monthly Retail Sales, Inventories, and Inventories/Sales Ratios, by Kind of Business (In millions of dollars) SIC Kind of Business Code Sales Inventories/1 Percent change in Inventories/Sales Inventories Ra Jul. 1998 Jun. 199Jul. 199Jul. 1998 Jun. 1998 Jul. 1997 Jul. 98/ Jun. 98Jul. 98Jul. 98Jun. 98Jul. 97 Adjusted/2 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Jun. 98 May 98Jul. 97 Retail trade, total.......... 224,372 225,625 214,935 325,741 326,296 321,304 -0.2 -0.1 1.4 1.45 1.45 1.49 Total (excl. auto group)... 170,385 169,302 162,353 239,105 238,521 230,638 0.2 0.9 3.7 1.40 1.41 1.42 Durable goods, total..... 93,285 95,284 88,589 171,129 171,952 172,870 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 1.83 1.80 1.95 52 Building materials group stor 13,825 13,643 12,591 26,034 25,943 24,409 0.4 1.2 6.7 1.88 1.90 1.94 55 Automotive group............. 53,987 56,323 52,582 86,636 87,775 90,666 -1.3 -2.8 -4.4 1.60 1.56 1.72 57 Furniture group stores....... 13,349 13,195 12,233 25,740 25,292 25,465 1.8 0.7 1.1 1.93 1.92 2.08 Nondurable goods, total... 131,087 130,341 126,346 154,612 154,344 148,434 0.2 0.9 4.2 1.18 1.18 1.17 53 General merchandise group str 29,355 29,431 27,826 59,546 59,430 58,736 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.03 2.02 2.11 531 Dept. strs. (exc. leased dep 23,166 23,208 21,907 49,183 48,902 47,971 0.6 0.7 2.5 2.12 2.11 2.19 54 Food group stores............ 37,050 36,899 35,765 30,040 29,932 28,840 0.4 0.8 4.2 0.81 0.81 0.81 56 Apparel and accessory stores. 10,476 10,338 9,959 25,354 25,310 23,519 0.2 1.7 7.8 2.42 2.45 2.36 Not Adjusted Retail trade, total.......... 228,893 230,837 218,017 315,892 319,330 311,224 -1.1 -1.3 1.5 1.38 1.38 1.43 Total (excl. auto group)... 171,074 168,105 161,859 234,562 231,109 226,130 1.5 0.0 3.7 1.37 1.37 1.40 Durable goods, total..... 98,040 103,255 92,904 164,570 170,985 166,004 -3.8 -2.4 -0.9 1.68 1.66 1.79 52 Building materials group stor 15,489 16,103 14,175 26,112 26,540 24,482 -1.6 -0.7 6.7 1.69 1.65 1.73 55 Automotive group............. 57,819 62,732 56,158 81,330 88,221 85,094 -7.8 -4.5 -4.4 1.41 1.41 1.52 57 Furniture group stores....... 13,032 12,564 11,869 24,736 24,204 24,421 2.2 -0.4 1.3 1.90 1.93 2.06 Nondurable goods, total... 130,853 127,582 125,113 151,322 148,345 145,220 2.0 0.1 4.2 1.16 1.16 1.16 53 General merchandise group str 27,368 27,793 25,691 57,636 56,494 56,847 2.0 -0.6 1.4 2.11 2.03 2.21 531 Dept. strs. (exc. leased dep 21,336 21,653 19,935 47,511 46,408 46,340 2.4 -0.9 2.5 2.23 2.14 2.32 54 Food group stores............ 38,753 36,599 37,054 29,433 29,366 28,262 0.2 0.9 4.1 0.76 0.80 0.76 56 Apparel and accessory stores. 9,845 9,611 9,208 25,329 24,070 23,495 5.2 0.7 7.8 2.57 2.50 2.55 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (s) Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment. No revisions were made to Not Adjusted data. (1) Inventories are on a non-LIFO basis as of the end of the month. (2) Adjusted for seasonal variations and, in the case of sales, for trading- day differences and holiday variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment and inventory estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-11 program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the current and previous month estimates and for retail and wholesale estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance estimates (published one month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the advance month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year ago. (3) Manufacturers sales refers to the value of shipments by manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as well as for any variations in the length of the reporting period. Note: The Manufacturing and Trade Inventory and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The sampling variability for retailers and merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent confidence interval for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will cover the true estimate. These intervals are given in parentheses for the estimates on the front page. If, for example, the estimate is up 0.8 percent and the margin of sampling error is +/-1.2 percent, the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.4 percent to +2.0 percent. If the range contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. Manufacturers do not contribute to estimates of sampling variability because the manufacturer's mail panel is not a probability sample from a known frame and standard errors of the industry estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also subject to nonsampling errors which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such errors include coverage error (failure to accurately represent all population units in the sample), response errors, coding errors, and nonresponse. Although no direct measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the collection, processing, and tabulation of the data to minimize their influence.