FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. EDT, Friday, August 14, 98 CB-98-147 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES June 98 ******************************************************************************************************************* Notice: The estimates shown in this report reflect revisions to the unadjusted and adjusted monthly estimates to manufacturing shipments and inventories. Revisions to the adjusted sales and inventory estimates begin with January 1992. Revisions to the unadjusted sales estimates begin with January 1993 and revisions to the unadjusted inventory estimates begin with January 1995. ******************************************************************************************************************* SALES The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments for June, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at $774.3 billion, up 0.2 percent (+/-0.2%) from May and were 3.6 percent (+/-0.4%) above June 97. Total durable goods increased 0.5 percent (+/-0.3%) from May and were 5.1 percent (+/-0.7%) above June 97. Total nondurable goods decreased 0.1 percent (+/-0.2%) from May but were up 2.2 percent (+/- 0.5%) above June 97. INVENTORIES Manufacturers' and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,070.7 billion, up 0.1 percent (+/-0.1%) from May and were up 3.7 percent (+/-0.4%) from June 97. Total durable goods decreased 0.3 percent (+/-0.1%) from May but were up 3.1 percent (+/-0.7%) from June 97. Total nondurable goods increased 0.6 percent (+/-0.1%) from May and were up 4.5 percent (+/-0.4%) from June 97. INVENTORIES/SALES RATIO The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of June was 1.38. The June 97 ratio was 1.38. Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales and Inventories for Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers (In millions of dollars) Sales Inventories(1) Inventories/Sales ratios Jun 98 May 98 Jun 98 Jun 98 May 98 Jun 97 Jun 98 May 98 Jun97 Adjusted(2) (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Total business............ 774,290 772,405 747,005 1,070,680 1,070,022 1,032,838 1.38 1.39 1.38 Durable...................... 396,232 394,140 376,969 649,121 651,158 629,434 1.64 1.65 1.67 Nondurable................... 378,058 378,265 370,036 421,559 418,864 403,404 1.12 1.11 1.09 Manufacturers(3).......... 334,650 333,622 326,118 466,593 465,729 447,947 1.39 1.40 1.37 Durable...................... 186,299 185,789 180,038 295,125 294,375 282,013 1.58 1.58 1.57 Nondurable................... 148,351 147,833 146,080 171,468 171,354 165,934 1.16 1.16 1.14 Retailers................. 225,611 225,370 212,343 326,153 326,594 319,883 1.45 1.45 1.51 Durable...................... 95,510 95,187 86,968 171,636 173,633 171,883 1.80 1.82 1.98 Nondurable................... 130,101 130,183 125,375 154,517 152,961 148,000 1.19 1.17 1.18 Merchant wholesalers...... 214,029 213,413 208,544 277,934 277,699 265,008 1.30 1.30 1.27 Durable...................... 114,423 113,164 109,963 182,360 183,150 175,538 1.59 1.62 1.60 Nondurable................... 99,606 100,249 98,581 95,574 94,549 89,470 0.96 0.94 0.91 Not Adjusted Total business............ 811,271 776,074 773,519 1,058,601 1,069,564 1,020,978 1.30 1.38 1.32 Durable...................... 427,892 396,064 400,995 647,250 657,355 627,442 1.51 1.66 1.56 Nondurable................... 383,379 380,010 372,524 411,351 412,209 393,536 1.07 1.08 1.06 Manufacturers............. 357,930 333,343 349,240 464,465 469,773 445,734 1.30 1.41 1.28 Durable...................... 204,090 185,809 197,434 293,802 297,637 280,596 1.44 1.60 1.42 Nondurable................... 153,840 147,534 151,806 170,663 172,136 165,138 1.11 1.17 1.09 Retailers................. 230,696 232,369 213,929 319,395 323,443 313,552 1.38 1.39 1.47 Durable...................... 103,262 100,113 91,512 170,890 175,248 171,243 1.65 1.75 1.87 Nondurable................... 127,434 132,256 122,417 148,505 148,195 142,309 1.17 1.12 1.16 Merchant wholesalers...... 222,645 210,362 210,350 274,741 276,348 261,692 1.23 1.31 1.24 Durable...................... 120,540 110,142 112,049 182,558 184,470 175,603 1.51 1.67 1.57 Nondurable................... 102,105 100,220 98,301 92,183 91,878 86,089 0.90 0.92 0.88 See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3. (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (s) Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasoNo revisions were made to Not Adjusted data. Table 2. Percent Changes for Sales and Inventories -- Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers Adjusted Not Adjusted Sales Inventories Sales Inventories Jun 98/ May 98/Jun 98/ Jun 98/ May 98/ Jun 98/ Jun 98/ May 98/ Jun 98/Jun 98/May 98/Jun 98/ May 98 Apr. 98 Jun 97 May 98 Apr. 98 Jun 97 May 98 Apr. 98 Jun 97 May 98 Apr 98 Jun 97 Total business............ 0.2 0.0 3.7 0.1 0.0 3.7 4.5 0.8 4.9 -1.0 -0.6 3.7 Durable...................... 0.5 -0.1 5.1 -0.3 -0.2 3.1 8.0 0.4 6.7 -1.5 -0.4 3.2 Nondurable................... -0.1 0.2 2.2 0.6 0.2 4.5 0.9 1.3 2.9 -0.2 -1.1 4.5 Manufacturers............. 0.3 -0.6 2.6 0.2 0.2 4.2 7.4 0.2 2.5 -1.1 0.6 4.2 Durable...................... 0.3 -0.6 3.5 0.3 0.3 4.6 9.8 0.5 3.4 -1.3 0.9 4.7 Nondurable................... 0.4 -0.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 3.3 4.3 0.0 1.3 -0.9 0.0 3.3 Retailers................. 0.1 1.2 6.2 -0.1 -1.0 2.0 -0.7 5.1 7.8 -1.3 -2.3 1.9 Durable...................... 0.3 1.8 9.8 -1.2 -1.6 -0.1 3.1 5.1 12.8 -2.5 -3.0 -0.2 Nondurable................... -0.1 0.7 3.8 1.0 -0.3 4.4 -3.6 5.0 4.1 0.2 -1.5 4.4 Merchant wholesalers...... 0.3 -0.2 2.6 0.1 0.6 4.9 5.8 -2.6 5.8 -0.6 -0.7 5.0 Durable...................... 1.1 -1.0 4.1 -0.4 0.3 3.9 9.4 -3.7 7.6 -1.0 0.3 4.0 Nondurable................... -0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 6.8 1.9 -1.4 3.9 0.3 -2.5 7.1 Table 3. Estimated Monthly Retail Sales, Inventories, and Inventories/Sales Ratios, by Kind of Business (In millions of dollars) SIC Kind of Business Code Sales Inventories(1) Percent Change Inventories/Sales in Inventories Ratios Jun 98 May 98 Jun 97 Jun 98 May 98 Jun 97 Jun 98/ May 98/ Jun 98/Jun 98 May 98Jun 97 Adjusted(2) (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) May 98 Apr. 98 Jun 97 Retail trade, total.......... 225,611 225,370 212,343 326,153 326,594 319,883 -0.1 -1.0 2.0 1.45 1.45 1.51 Total (excl. auto group)... 169,005 169,109 161,092 238,634 236,327 229,470 1.0 -0.6 4.0 1.41 1.40 1.42 Durable goods, total..... 95,510 95,187 86,968 171,636 173,633 171,883 -1.2 -1.6 -0.1 1.80 1.82 1.98 52 Building materials group stor 13,627 13,849 12,539 25,947 25,642 24,383 1.2 -1.9 6.4 1.90 1.85 1.94 55 Automotive group............. 56,606 56,261 51,251 87,519 90,267 90,413 -3.0 -2.0 -3.2 1.55 1.60 1.76 57 Furniture group stores....... 13,140 13,063 12,106 25,228 25,128 25,044 0.4 -1.4 0.7 1.92 1.92 2.07 Nondurable goods, total... 130,101 130,183 125,375 154,517 152,961 148,000 1.0 -0.3 4.4 1.19 1.17 1.18 53 General merchandise group str 29,479 29,484 27,535 59,401 59,010 58,902 0.7 -1.2 0.8 2.02 2.00 2.14 531 Dept. strs. (exc. leased dep 23,258 23,333 21,694 48,851 48,577 48,168 0.6 -1.2 1.4 2.10 2.08 2.22 54 Food group stores............ 36,796 36,779 35,541 29,948 29,694 28,931 0.9 0.1 3.5 0.81 0.81 0.81 56 Apparel and accessory stores. 10,299 10,412 9,862 25,356 24,896 23,418 1.8 0.4 8.3 2.46 2.39 2.37 Not Adjusted Retail trade, total.......... 230,696 232,369 213,929 319,395 323,443 313,552 -1.3 -2.3 1.9 1.38 1.39 1.47 Total (excl. auto group)... 167,970 172,197 158,721 231,263 231,092 222,416 0.1 -1.5 4.0 1.38 1.34 1.40 Durable goods, total..... 103,262 100,113 91,512 170,890 175,248 171,243 -2.5 -3.0 -0.2 1.65 1.75 1.87 52 Building materials group stor 16,094 16,158 14,211 26,544 26,719 24,919 -0.7 -2.1 6.5 1.65 1.65 1.75 55 Automotive group............. 62,726 60,172 55,208 88,132 92,351 91,136 -4.6 -4.4 -3.3 1.41 1.53 1.65 57 Furniture group stores....... 12,572 12,298 11,386 24,194 24,299 24,042 -0.4 -1.9 0.6 1.92 1.98 2.11 Nondurable goods, total... 127,434 132,256 122,417 148,505 148,195 142,309 0.2 -1.5 4.4 1.17 1.12 1.16 53 General merchandise group str 27,789 29,373 26,220 56,494 56,833 56,032 -0.6 -2.4 0.8 2.03 1.93 2.14 531 Dept. strs. (exc. leased dep 21,653 23,193 20,479 46,408 46,828 45,760 -0.9 -2.5 1.4 2.14 2.02 2.23 54 Food group stores............ 36,521 37,981 35,170 29,370 29,110 28,399 0.9 -1.0 3.4 0.80 0.77 0.81 56 Apparel and accessory stores. 9,587 10,152 9,111 24,088 23,900 22,247 0.8 -1.8 8.3 2.51 2.35 2.44 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (s) Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment. No revisions were made to Not Adjusted data. (1) Inventories are on a non-LIFO basis as of the end of the month. (2) Adjusted for seasonal variations and, in the case of sales, for trading- day differences and holiday variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment and inventory estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-11 program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the current and previous month estimates and for retail and wholesale estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance estimates (published one month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the advance month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year ago. (3) Manufacturers sales refers to the value of shipments by manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as well as for any variations in the length of the reporting period. Note: The Manufacturing and Trade Inventory and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The sampling variability for retailers and merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent confidence interval for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will cover the true estimate. These intervals are given in parentheses for the estimates on the front page. If, for example, the estimate is up 0.8 percent and the margin of sampling error is +/-1.2 percent, the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.4 percent to +2.0 percent. If the range contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. Manufacturers do not contribute to estimates of sampling variability because the manufacturer's mail panel is not a probability sample from a known frame and standard errors of the industry estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also subject to nonsampling errors which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such errors include coverage error (failure to accurately represent all population units in the sample), response errors, coding errors, and nonresponse. Although no direct measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the collection, processing, and tabulation of the data to minimize their influence.