FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. EDT, Wednesday, July 15,1998 CB-98-119 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES May 1998 ******************************************************************************************************************* ******************************************************************************************************************* Intention to Revise Estimates: Revisions to the unadjusted and adjusted monthly estimates of manufacturing shipments and inventories are scheduled for release the week of July 20. Revisons will be reflected in the August 14th release of this report. ******************************************************************************************************************* SALES The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments for May, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at $774.2 billion, up 0.1 percent (+/-0.3%) from April and were 4.3 percent (+/-0.4%) above May 1997. Total durable goods were virtually unchanged from April but were 6.6 percent (+/-0.6%) above May 1997. Total nondurable goods increased 0.2 percent (+/-0.4%) from April and were up 2.1 percent (+/-0.4%) from May 1997. INVENTORIES Manufacturers' and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,065.8 billion, down 0.1 percent (+/-0.1%) from April but were up 4.2 percent (+/-0.5%) from May 1997. Total durable goods decreased 0.2 percent (+/-0.2%) from April but were up 4.3 percent (+/-0.3%) from May 1997. Total nondurable goods increased 0.1 percent (+/-0.2%) from April and were up 4.0 percent (+/-0.5%) from May 1997. INVENTORIES/SALES RATIO The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of May was 1.38. The May 1997 ratio was 1.38. Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales and Inventories for Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers (In millions of dollars) Sales Inventories/1 Inventories/Sales Ratios Adjusted/2 May 98 Apr. 98 May 98 May 98 Apr. 98 May 97 May 98 Apr 98 May 97 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Total business............ 774,196 773,414 742,069 1,065,803 1,067,019 1,023,284 1.38 1.38 1.38 Durable...................... 394,955 394,837 370,609 647,500 649,153 620,946 1.64 1.64 1.68 Nondurable................... 379,241 378,577 371,460 418,303 417,866 402,338 1.10 1.10 1.08 Manufacturers/3........... 335,486 336,807 323,567 461,564 461,132 443,460 1.38 1.37 1.37 Durable...................... 186,789 187,052 175,900 290,526 290,105 278,084 1.56 1.55 1.58 Nondurable................... 148,697 149,755 147,667 171,038 171,027 165,376 1.15 1.14 1.12 Retailers................. 225,464 222,707 210,532 326,699 329,954 319,566 1.45 1.48 1.52 Durable...................... 95,111 93,460 85,906 173,849 176,500 171,460 1.83 1.89 2.00 Nondurable................... 130,353 129,247 124,626 152,850 153,454 148,106 1.17 1.19 1.19 Merchant wholesalers...... 213,246 213,900 207,970 277,540 275,933 260,258 1.30 1.29 1.25 Durable...................... 113,055 114,325 108,803 183,125 182,548 171,402 1.62 1.60 1.58 Nondurable................... 100,191 99,575 99,167 94,415 93,385 88,856 0.94 0.94 0.90 Not Adjusted Total business............ 777,494 771,004 757,260 1,065,590 1,073,034 1,023,516 1.37 1.39 1.35 Durable...................... 396,366 394,881 378,488 653,693 656,427 627,211 1.65 1.66 1.66 Nondurable................... 381,128 376,123 378,772 411,897 416,607 396,305 1.08 1.11 1.05 Manufacturers............. 334,801 333,837 325,261 465,727 463,636 447,620 1.39 1.39 1.38 Durable...................... 186,255 185,289 176,839 293,883 291,727 281,375 1.58 1.57 1.59 Nondurable................... 148,546 148,548 148,422 171,844 171,909 166,245 1.16 1.16 1.12 Retailers................. 232,404 221,166 220,869 323,598 331,193 316,787 1.39 1.50 1.43 Durable...................... 100,049 95,261 92,679 175,417 180,730 173,110 1.75 1.90 1.87 Nondurable................... 132,355 125,905 128,190 148,181 150,463 143,677 1.12 1.20 1.12 Merchant wholesalers...... 210,289 216,001 211,130 276,265 278,205 259,109 1.31 1.29 1.23 Durable...................... 110,062 114,331 108,970 184,393 183,970 172,726 1.68 1.61 1.59 Nondurable................... 100,227 101,670 102,160 91,872 94,235 86,383 0.92 0.93 0.85 See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3. (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (s) Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment. No revisions were made to Not Adjusted data. Table 2. Percent Changes for Sales and Inventories -- Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers Adjusted Not Adjusted May98/ Apr98/ May98/ May98/ Apr98/ May98/ May98/ Apr98/ May98/ May98/ Apr98/ May98/ Apr98 Mar98 May97 Apr98 Mar98 May97 Apr98 Mar98 May97 Apr98 Mar98 May97 Total business............ 0.1 -0.3 4.3 -0.1 0.1 4.2 0.8 -3.2 2.7 -0.7 0.7 4.1 Durable...................... 0.0 -0.5 6.6 -0.3 0.3 4.3 0.4 -5.7 4.7 -0.4 1.2 4.2 Nondurable................... 0.2 0.0 2.1 0.1 -0.1 4.0 1.3 -0.5 0.6 -1.1 0.0 3.9 Manufacturers............. -0.4 -1.1 3.7 0.1 0.4 4.1 0.3 -6.8 2.9 0.5 1.2 4.0 Durable...................... -0.1 -1.8 6.2 0.1 0.6 4.5 0.5 -10.2 5.3 0.7 1.6 4.4 Nondurable................... -0.7 -0.2 0.7 0.0 0.1 3.4 0.0 -2.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 3.4 Retailers................. 1.2 0.7 7.1 -1.0 0.2 2.2 5.1 2.3 5.2 -2.3 1.0 2.2 Durable...................... 1.8 0.9 10.7 -1.5 0.1 1.4 5.0 2.6 8.0 -2.9 1.2 1.3 Nondurable................... 0.9 0.6 4.6 -0.4 0.4 3.2 5.1 2.1 3.2 -1.5 0.7 3.1 Merchant wholesalers...... -0.3 0.1 2.5 0.6 -0.6 6.6 -2.6 -2.9 -0.4 -0.7 -0.3 6.6 Durable...................... -1.1 0.5 3.9 0.3 -0.1 6.8 -3.7 -4.5 1.0 0.2 0.7 6.8 Nondurable................... 0.6 -0.5 1.0 1.1 -1.5 6.3 -1.4 -0.9 -1.9 -2.5 -2.2 6.4 Table 3. Estimated Monthly Retail Sales, Inventories, and Inventories/Sales Ratios, by Kind of Business (In Millions of Dollars) SIC Kind of Business Code Sales Inventories/1 Percent change in Inventories/Sales Inventories Ratios May98 Apr98 May98 May98 Apr98 May97 May98/ Apr98/ May98/ May98 Apr98 May97 Adjusted/2 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Apr98 Mar98 May97 Retail trade, total.......... 225,464 222,707 210,532 326,699 329,954 319,566 -1.0 0.2 2.2 1.45 1.48 1.52 Total (excl. auto group)... 169,265 167,831 160,071 236,274 237,804 229,367 -0.6 0.2 3.0 1.40 1.42 1.43 Durable goods, total..... 95,111 93,460 85,906 173,849 176,500 171,460 -1.5 0.1 1.4 1.83 1.89 2.00 52 Building materials group stor 13,901 13,816 12,484 25,655 26,138 24,259 -1.8 0.0 5.8 1.85 1.89 1.94 55 Automotive group............. 56,199 54,876 50,461 90,425 92,150 90,199 -1.9 0.3 0.3 1.61 1.68 1.79 57 Furniture group stores....... 13,055 12,913 12,100 25,159 25,476 25,199 -1.2 1.1 -0.2 1.93 1.97 2.08 Nondurable goods, total... 130,353 129,247 124,626 152,850 153,454 148,106 -0.4 0.4 3.2 1.17 1.19 1.19 53 General merchandise group str 29,494 29,351 27,254 58,970 59,707 59,112 -1.2 -0.1 -0.2 2.00 2.03 2.17 531 Dept. strs. (exc. leased dep 23,354 23,217 21,438 48,526 49,177 48,254 -1.3 -0.3 0.6 2.08 2.12 2.25 54 Food group stores............ 36,848 36,584 35,613 29,704 29,668 28,887 0.1 0.8 2.8 0.81 0.81 0.81 56 Apparel and accessory stores. 10,434 10,472 9,706 24,844 24,789 23,285 0.2 0.6 6.7 2.38 2.37 2.40 Not Adjusted Retail trade, total.......... 232,404 221,166 220,869 323,598 331,193 316,787 -2.3 1.0 2.2 1.39 1.50 1.43 Total (excl. auto group)... 172,299 163,229 165,219 231,176 234,595 224,432 -1.5 1.1 3.0 1.34 1.44 1.36 Durable goods, total..... 100,049 95,261 92,679 175,417 180,730 173,110 -2.9 1.2 1.3 1.75 1.90 1.87 52 Building materials group stor 16,171 14,903 14,852 26,733 27,288 25,278 -2.0 1.3 5.8 1.65 1.83 1.70 55 Automotive group............. 60,105 57,937 55,650 92,422 96,598 92,355 -4.3 0.7 0.1 1.54 1.67 1.66 57 Furniture group stores....... 12,307 11,787 11,620 24,304 24,763 24,342 -1.9 2.2 -0.2 1.97 2.10 2.09 Nondurable goods, total... 132,355 125,905 128,190 148,181 150,463 143,677 -1.5 0.7 3.1 1.12 1.20 1.12 53 General merchandise group str 29,371 27,565 27,349 56,833 58,218 57,026 -2.4 1.0 -0.3 1.94 2.11 2.09 531 Dept. strs. (exc. leased dep 23,191 21,778 21,417 46,828 48,046 46,613 -2.5 0.8 0.5 2.02 2.21 2.18 54 Food group stores............ 38,062 36,152 37,263 29,119 29,390 28,349 -0.9 0.5 2.7 0.77 0.81 0.76 56 Apparel and accessory stores. 10,143 10,127 9,696 23,900 24,343 22,423 -1.8 0.3 6.6 2.36 2.40 2.31 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (s) Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment. No revisions were made to Not Adjusted data. (1) Inventories are on a non-LIFO basis as of the end of the month. (2) Adjusted for seasonal variations and, in the case of sales, for trading- day differences and holiday variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment and inventory estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-11 program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the current and previous month estimates and for retail and wholesale estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance estimates (published one month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the advance month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year ago. (3) Manufacturers sales refers to the value of shipments by manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as well as for any variations in the length of the reporting period. Note: The Manufacturing and Trade Inventory and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The sampling variability for retailers and merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent confidence interval for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will cover the true estimate. These intervals are given in parentheses for the estimates on the front page. If, for example, the estimate is up 0.8 percent and the margin of sampling error is +/-1.2 percent, the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.4 percent to +2.0 percent. If the range contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. Manufacturers do not contribute to estimates of sampling variability because the manufacturer's mail panel is not a probability sample from a known frame and standard errors of the industry estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also subject to nonsampling errors which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such errors include coverage error (failure to accurately represent all population units in the sample), response errors, coding errors, and nonresponse. Although no direct measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the collection, processing, and tabulation of the data to minimize their influence.