FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. EST, Thursday, January 15, 1998 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES -- NOVEMBER 1997 SALES The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments for November adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at $758.1 billion, down 0.2 percent (±0.2%) from October but were 3.7 percent (±0.4%) above November 1996. Total durable goods decreased 0.1 percent (±0.4%) from October but were 5.3 percent (±0.6%) above November 1996. Total nondurable goods decreased 0.3 percent (±0.3%) from October but were up 2.1 percent (±0.5%) from November 1996. INVENTORIES Manufacturers' and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,044.3 billion, up 0.4 percent (±0.1%) from October and 4.0 percent (±0.5%) above November 1996. Total durable goods increased 0.2 percent (±0.1%) from October and were up 4.3 percent (±0.7%) from November 1996. Total nondurable goods increased 0.6 percent (±0.2%) from October and were up 3.7 percent (±0.6%) from November 1996. INVENTORIES/SALES RATIO The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of November was 1.38. The November 1996 ratio was 1.37. The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Report for December is scheduled to be released February 13, 1998 at 8:30 a.m. Table 1. Estimated Monthly Sales and Inventories for Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers (In millions of dollars) -----------Sales----------- -------Inventories(1)-------- Inventories/Sales Ratios Nov.97 Oct.97 Nov.96 Nov.97 Oct.97 Nov.96 Nov.97 Oct.97 Nov.96 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Adjusted(2) Total business 758,095 759,880 730,974 1,044,278 1,040,265 1,003,740 1.38 1.37 1.37 Durable......... 380,045 380,522 360,773 625,175 623,867 599,485 1.65 1.64 1.66 Nondurable...... 378,050 379,358 370,201 419,103 416,398 404,255 1.11 1.10 1.09 Manufacturers(3) 333,138 334,064 319,296 453,921 452,139 435,200 1.36 1.35 1.36 Durable......... 183,072 183,602 171,426 284,402 283,477 272,198 1.55 1.54 1.59 Nondurable...... 150,066 150,462 147,870 169,519 168,662 163,002 1.13 1.12 1.10 Retailers.... 214,093 213,517 205,966 319,730 319,943 312,870 1.49 1.50 1.52 Durable......... 87,712 86,863 83,561 171,168 171,376 165,498 1.95 1.97 1.98 Nondurable...... 126,381 126,654 122,405 148,562 148,567 147,372 1.18 1.17 1.20 Merchant Wholesalers... 210,864 212,299 205,712 270,627 268,183 255,670 1.28 1.26 1.24 Durable......... 109,261 110,057 105,786 169,605 169,014 161,789 1.55 1.54 1.53 Nondurable...... 101,603 102,242 99,926 101,022 99,169 93,881 0.99 0.97 0.94 Not Adjusted Total business 748,264 788,428 731,366 1,072,901 1,063,267 1,031,242 1.43 1.35 1.41 Durable......... 369,092 395,956 356,093 633,149 627,798 606,938 1.72 1.59 1.70 Nondurable...... 379,172 392,472 375,273 439,752 435,469 424,304 1.16 1.11 1.13 Manufacturers 333,571 344,183 320,385 454,407 453,221 435,162 1.36 1.32 1.36 Durable......... 182,742 188,297 172,028 285,141 283,673 272,612 1.56 1.51 1.58 Nondurable...... 150,829 155,886 148,357 169,266 169,548 162,550 1.12 1.09 1.10 Retailers.... 214,383 215,742 210,236 345,332 339,979 338,080 1.61 1.58 1.61 Durable......... 82,429 87,828 80,826 179,239 175,501 173,277 2.17 2.00 2.14 Nondurable...... 131,954 127,914 129,410 166,093 164,478 164,803 1.26 1.29 1.27 Merchant Wholesalers.. 200,310 228,503 200,745 273,162 270,067 258,000 1.36 1.18 1.29 Durable......... 103,921 119,831 103,239 168,769 168,624 161,049 1.62 1.41 1.56 Nondurable...... 96,389 108,672 97,506 104,393 101,443 96,951 1.08 0.93 0.99 See footnotes and notes at the end of Table 3. (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (s) Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment. No revisions were made to Not Adjusted data. Table 2. Percent Changes for Sales and Inventories - Manufacturers, Retailers, and Merchant Wholesalers ------------------Adjusted--------------------- ----------------Not Adjusted------------------ ---------Sales--------- ------Inventories------ ---------Sales--------- -----Inventories------ Nov.97/ Oct.97/ Nov.97/ Nov.97/ Oct.97/ Nov.97/ Nov.97/ Oct.97/ Nov.97/ Nov.97/ Oct.97/ Nov.97/ Oct.97 Sep.97 Nov.96 Oct.97 Sep.97 Nov.96 Oct.97 Sep.97 Nov.96 Oct.97 Sep.97 Nov.96 Total business -0.2 -0.3 3.7 0.4 0.3 4.0 -5.1 0.6 2.3 0.9 3.0 4.0 Durable......... -0.1 -0.8 5.3 0.2 0.2 4.3 -6.8 -1.8 3.7 0.9 1.9 4.3 Nondurable...... -0.3 0.1 2.1 0.6 0.4 3.7 -3.4 3.2 1.0 1.0 4.5 3.6 Manufacturers -0.3 -0.4 4.3 0.4 0.7 4.3 -3.1 -3.8 4.1 0.3 1.0 4.4 Durable......... -0.3 -1.0 6.8 0.3 0.6 4.5 -3.0 -6.0 6.2 0.5 0.9 4.6 Nondurable...... -0.3 0.4 1.5 0.5 0.8 4.0 -3.2 -1.1 1.7 -0.2 1.2 4.1 Retailers.... 0.3 -0.1 3.9 -0.1 0.0 2.2 -0.6 4.3 2.0 1.6 5.8 2.1 Durable......... 1.0 -0.2 5.0 -0.1 0.5 3.4 -6.1 1.6 2.0 2.1 5.7 3.4 Nondurable...... -0.2 -0.1 3.2 0.0 -0.5 0.8 3.2 6.3 2.0 1.0 5.9 0.8 Merchant Wholesalers.. -0.7 -0.5 2.5 0.9 0.0 5.9 -12.3 4.3 -0.2 1.1 2.9 5.9 Durable......... -0.7 -0.8 3.3 0.3 -0.7 4.8 -13.3 2.8 0.7 0.1 -0.1 4.8 Nondurable...... -0.6 -0.2 1.7 1.9 1.2 7.6 -11.3 6.1 -1.1 2.9 8.1 7.7 Table 3. Estimated Monthly Retail Sales, Inventories, and Inventories/Sales Ratios, by Kind of Business (In millions of dollars) SIC ----------Sales---------- -----Inventories(1)------ -----Percent Change---- --Inventories/Sales-- Code Kind of Business -----in Inventories---- --------Ratios------ Nov.97 Oct.97 Nov.96 Nov.97 Oct.97 Nov.96 Nov.97/ Oct.97/ Nov.97/ Nov.97 Oct.97 Nov.96 (p) (r) (s) (p) (r) (s) Oct.97 Sep.97 Nov.96 Adjusted(2) Retail trade, total. 214,093 213,517 205,966 319,730 319,943 312,870 -0.1 0.0 2.2 1.49 1.50 1.52 Total (excl. auto group)..... 162,174 162,200 156,392 230,191 230,147 225,386 0.0 -0.2 2.1 1.42 1.42 1.44 Durable goods, total............ 87,712 86,863 83,561 171,168 171,376 165,498 -0.1 0.5 3.4 1.95 1.97 1.98 52 Building materials, hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers....... 11,833 11,971 11,372 24,068 24,066 22,281 0.0 -0.1 8.0 2.03 2.01 1.96 55 Automotive group.... 51,919 51,317 49,574 89,539 89,796 87,484 -0.3 0.5 2.3 1.72 1.75 1.76 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores... 11,999 11,857 11,153 22,231 22,283 22,925 -0.2 1.1 -3.0 1.85 1.88 2.06 Nondurable goods, total.............. 126,381 126,654 122,405 148,562 148,567 147,372 0.0 -0.5 0.8 1.18 1.17 1.20 group stores....... 27,865 27,898 26,240 57,953 57,914 59,086 0.1 -0.6 -1.9 2.08 2.08 2.25 531 Dept. stores (excl. leased depts.)... 22,003 22,029 20,444 47,975 47,834 47,889 0.3 0.1 0.2 2.18 2.17 2.34 54 Food stores......... 36,409 36,254 35,571 28,968 28,832 28,616 0.5 -0.4 1.2 0.80 0.80 0.80 56 Apparel and accessory stores............. 9,819 9,785 9,360 24,754 24,875 23,895 -0.5 -0.4 3.6 2.52 2.54 2.55 Not Adjusted Retail trade, total. 214,383 215,742 210,236 345,332 339,979 338,080 1.6 5.8 2.1 1.61 1.58 1.61 Total (excl. auto group)..... 168,575 163,314 164,872 255,026 252,461 249,835 1.0 6.0 2.1 1.51 1.55 1.52 Durable goods, total............. 82,429 87,828 80,826 179,239 175,501 173,277 2.1 5.7 3.4 2.17 2.00 2.14 52 Building materials, hardware, garden supply, and mobile home dealers....... 11,054 12,852 10,921 23,587 23,898 21,835 -1.3 0.9 8.0 2.13 1.86 2.00 55 Automotive group.... 45,808 52,428 45,364 90,306 87,518 88,245 3.2 5.3 2.3 1.97 1.67 1.95 57 Furniture, home furnishings, and equipment stores... 13,211 11,838 12,483 25,388 24,979 26,157 1.6 9.8 -2.9 1.92 2.11 2.10 Nondurable goods, total.............. 131,954 127,914 129,410 166,093 164,478 164,803 1.0 5.9 0.8 1.26 1.29 1.27 53 General merchandise group stores....... 32,809 27,680 31,075 68,362 67,037 69,654 2.0 8.4 -1.9 2.08 2.42 2.24 531 Dept. stores (excl. leased depts.)... 26,293 21,787 24,614 56,658 55,344 56,509 2.4 9.1 0.3 2.15 2.54 2.30 54 Food stores......... 36,173 36,407 35,880 30,371 29,658 30,002 2.4 3.2 1.2 0.84 0.81 0.84 56 Apparel and accessory stores............. 11,090 9,895 10,777 28,244 28,333 27,240 -0.3 6.2 3.7 2.55 2.86 2.53 (p) Preliminary. (r) Revised. (s) Adjusted data were revised due to concurrent seasonal adjustment. No revisions were made to Not Adjusted data. (1) Inventories are on a non-LIFO basis as of the end of the month. (2) Adjusted for seasonal variations and, in the case of sales, for trading- day differences and holiday variations. Concurrent seasonal adjustment is being used to adjust all sales, shipment and inventory estimates. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-11 program. The factors derived from the program are applied to the current and previous month estimates and for retail and wholesale estimates a year ago as well. For retail sales, concurrent seasonal adjustment is also used to adjust the advance estimates (published one month before the preliminary estimates) and the estimates one year before the advance month. This explains the revision to retail estimates from a year ago. (3) Manufacturers sales refers to the value of shipments by manufacturers. The shipments data from individual manufacturers are adjusted prior to tabulation for the number of trading days as well as for any variations in the length of the reporting period. Note: The Manufacturing and Trade Inventory and Sales estimates are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey. The sampling variability for retailers and merchant wholesalers can be used to construct a 90 percent confidence interval for the estimates. Over all possible samples, 90 percent of such intervals will cover the true estimate. These intervals are given in parentheses for the estimates on the front page. If, for example, the estimate is up 0.8 percent and the Novgin of sampling error is +/-1.2 percent, the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.4 percent to +2.0 percent. If the range contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. Manufacturers do not contribute to estimates of sampling variability because the manufacturer's mail panel is not a probability sample from a known frame and standard errors of the industry estimates cannot be calculated. Estimates from all three surveys are also subject to nonsampling errors which can arise in any stage of the survey. Such errors include coverage error (failure to accurately represent all population units in the sample), response errors, coding errors, and nonresponse. Although no direct measurement of these errors has been obtained, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the collection, processing, and tabulation of the data to minimize their influence.