|
HOME>
Expert
Assessments>
Hazards Assessment>
Hazards
Briefing>
Hazards Assessment Verification
|
| |
| Hazards Assessment Verification for Heavy Precipitation |
| |
| This page updated on 11/29/2008 |
| |
| |
| The Contingency Table |
|
| |
| Where A=Number of Correct Forecasts, |
| B=Number of Incorrect Forecasts, |
| C=Number of Times Event Occured when no Forecast was Made, |
| D=Number of Times Event did not Occur when no Forecast was
Made |
| |
| |
| Contingency Table for Latest Forecast (Made on:20081114): |
|
| |
| Cumulative Contingency Table: |
|
| |
|
Hit Rate = (a+d)/(a+b+c+d)
|
Threat Score = (a)/(a+b+c) |
|
|
| |
| Probability of Detection = (a)/(a+c) |
False Alarm Rate = (b)/(a+b) |
|
|
| |
| Bias = (a+b)/(a+c) |
|
www.nws.noaa.gov 
