Next Generation QPE (Q2)
The next generation QPE (Q2) is the scientific and community-wide convergence towards high resolution, accurate QPE and very short term quantitative precipitation forecast (VSTQPF).
Q2 will glean the best practices of the MPE (Multisensor QPE - Office of Hydrologic Development) and NMQ (NSSL). Q2 continues NSSL's departure from radar-centric precipitation estimation and moves toward a multi-sensor approach focused on high-resolution integration of radar, satellite, model, and surface observations to produce very high-resolution precipitation estimates.
The Q2 project is a joint initiative between the NOAA/NSSL, NOAA/NWS/OHD and the NOAA Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services (OCWSS) and the university research community to improve river forecasts, flood and flash flood watches and warnings as well as to enhance various hydrologic and hydrometeorological services for numerous users and customers.
Q2 focus areas:
- Observation driven QPE
- Near-real-time reanalysis
- Real-time analysis
- Observation and model output mix VSTQPF
- Real-time extrapolation, prediction, and blending with NWP QPF
- Will develop accurate and seamless high-res QPI
Q2 will improve precipitation estimation by:
- Improving the source of data (using dual-polarization radar data, adding Terminal Doppler Weather Radar data, and adding the Canadian Radar System data to precipitation estimation methods)
- Improving algorithms to estimate precipitation
- Quantifying the uncertainty associated with rainfall estimation and forecasts
- Depart from radar-centric precipitation typing to a true multi-sensor approach focused on 3-D mosaic grids of radar, satellite, model and surface observations
- Improve logic for precipitation typing and masking
- Implementation of robust gap filling
and VPR adjustments
- Robust synchronization of satellite imagery with radar for robust/representative regressions
- Identification and precipitation rate adjustments for orographic forced processes
- Optimization and mitigation of gauge biasing latency through parallel QPE processing
Timetable:
- Initial version running CONUS 2005
- Phase out of QPESUMS, December 2006
- Q2 warm season v1.5 implemented, September 2007
- Q2 cool season v1.0 implementation, January 2009