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National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
| 2009
Monsoon outlook |
| for
southeast Arizona |
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| The
Climate Prediction Center
(CPC) has issued its outlook for the upcoming monsoon. Research within
the past decade or so has investigated the possible causes behind
the variability of the North American Monsoon. Specific factors that
were examined include: sea surface temperature anomalies, large-scale
circulation patterns, land surface conditions, tropical convergence
zones and moisture transport mechanisms. |
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| CPC's
precipitation outlook for June, July and August 2009 calls for
enhanced probabilities of above normal precipitation
for southeast Arizona. There are several reasons for
this. 1) an intensifying drought over the central and southern
Plains; 2) below normal mountains snowpack in the central Rockies
this past winter; 3) a developing dipole of below normal sea
surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Caribbean and above normal
SSTs off the southern coast of Mexico ; 4) two separate ensemble
climate/long range model suites are forecasting a rapid development
of the monsoon high in May, followed by a rapid northward advance.
If this northward advance |
 |
| of
the high occurs as expected, it would |
Click
image to enlarge |
|
result in a shift in our winds from predominately westerly to
easterly or southeasterly. This shift in the winds transports
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, Mexico and the Gulf of California
or even the Plains. |
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| Many
factors influence the variability from one monsoon to the next. All
of these factors are interrelated to each other, and likewise none
of them totally account for monsoon variability. The scientific understanding
of this variability has increased substantially over the past 15 years
and remains an active research area. |
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| CPC's
temperature forecast for the 2009 monsoon calls for enhanced probabilities
of above normal temperatures. |
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| The
Climate Predication Center
(CPC) will revise its June, July and August forecast on the May 21st. |
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| Monsoon
rainfall "AVERAGES" across southeast Arizona |
| Monsoon
rainfall "RECORDS" across southeast Arizona |
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Webmaster
US Dept of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Weather Service
Tucson Weather Forecast Office
520 North Park Ave, Suite 304
Tucson, AZ 85719
Tel: (520) 670-6526
|
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