******************************************************************************* ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES SUMMARY - February 2007 ******************************************************************************* Intention to Revise Retail Estimates: Monthly retail sales estimates will be revised based on the results of the 2005 Annual Retail Trade Survey. Revised not adjusted and corresponding adjusted data are scheduled for release on March 29, 2007. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $370.5 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent (±0.7%)* from the previous month and up 3.2 percent (±0.7%) from February 2006. Total sales for the December 2006 through February 2007 were up 3.7 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The December 2006 to January 2007 percent change was unrevised from 0.0 percent (± 0.3%)*. Retail trade sales were up 0.2 percent (±0.7%)* from January 2007 and were 3.1 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 9.1 percent (±4.5%) from February 2006 and sales of health and personal care stores were up 6.1 percent (±1.7%) from last year. The Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services for March is scheduled to be released April 16, 2007 at 8:30 a.m. EDT. * The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero. TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--February 2007 (Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2007 2007 2006 2006 2006 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Feb(3) Jan Dec Feb Jan Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 370,495 370,169 370,314 358,926 362,063 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 292,712 293,066 292,512 284,004 284,141 Retail ....................................... 333,999 333,218 332,967 324,051 326,799 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 96,914 95,804 92,494 92,741 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 77,783 77,103 77,802 74,922 77,922 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 71,646 70,929 71,492 68,569 71,521 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 10,207 10,380 10,053 9,842 9,977 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 9,150 9,180 9,427 8,785 8,992 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 7,499 7,464 7,212 7,395 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,681 1,963 1,573 1,597 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 28,628 29,034 29,095 30,621 30,431 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 25,379 25,376 27,161 26,898 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 47,006 46,705 46,615 44,660 44,286 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 41,644 41,409 41,258 39,639 39,292 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 3,305 3,287 3,141 3,102 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 19,292 19,284 19,243 18,190 18,033 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 16,382 16,240 15,080 14,979 447 Gasoline stations................................ 34,749 34,342 34,511 34,528 35,146 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 18,354 18,685 18,234 17,441 17,524 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 875 843 780 772 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,304 3,314 3,164 3,268 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,210 2,197 2,171 2,218 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,063 7,123 7,067 7,315 7,343 452 General merchandise stores....................... 47,443 47,743 47,234 45,581 45,420 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,633 17,915 17,742 17,908 17,994 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 29,828 29,492 27,673 27,426 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 26,232 25,972 24,218 23,916 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,596 3,520 3,455 3,510 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 10,015 9,984 10,148 9,876 9,870 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 24,309 23,655 23,538 22,290 21,855 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 15,793 15,955 14,638 14,595 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 36,496 36,951 37,347 34,875 35,264 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (5) With the introduction of a new sample with estimates for the September 2006 data month, we have identified a change in the seasonal pattern for estimates in Men's clothing stores (NAICS 44811). As a result, we have temporarily suspended the release of seasonally adjusted estimates for this industry. Because of the seasonal adjustment methodology, we have also suppressed from publication all estimates back through the September 2005 data month for this industry. We will continue to provide estimates not adjusted for seasonality; however, these estimates should be used with caution as the new sample estimates may not be comparable with estimates from the old sample. We plan to evaluate the seasonal adjustment of this industry in spring 2007 as part of our annual revision process. (6) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals. TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--February 2007 Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 2 month total % Chg. 2007 2007 2006 2006 2006 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2007 from Feb(2) Jan Dec Feb Jan Code 2006 (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 664,773 3.8 328,847 335,926 424,946 318,184 322,222 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 526,195 3.9 258,126 268,069 352,916 250,199 256,007 Retail ....................................... 597,199 3.7 295,453 301,746 386,553 286,273 289,603 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 83,627 146,882 79,726 79,023 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 138,578 3.3 70,721 67,857 72,030 67,985 66,215 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 127,332 3.8 65,198 62,134 66,130 62,261 60,435 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 50,522 54,991 50,426 49,726 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 5,723 5,900 5,724 5,780 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 18,705 5.3 9,176 9,529 11,832 8,838 8,929 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 5,156 5,550 4,879 4,854 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,373 6,282 3,959 4,075 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 16,957 4.1 8,244 8,713 15,300 7,882 8,400 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 7,049 12,622 6,455 6,848 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,664 2,678 1,427 1,552 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 46,155 -4.5 22,271 23,884 25,322 23,948 24,381 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 21,775 22,585 21,865 22,406 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 87,767 6.0 42,658 45,109 51,562 40,502 42,323 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 78,685 5.8 38,063 40,622 43,981 36,190 38,153 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,783 4,588 2,667 2,562 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 37,727 7.5 18,250 19,477 21,263 17,226 17,871 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 16,611 17,734 14,371 14,904 447 Gasoline stations................................ 60,859 -0.4 29,745 31,114 32,785 29,694 31,385 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 29,251 6.3 15,213 14,038 31,611 14,544 12,970 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 716 1,453 606 620 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 2,597 4,978 2,541 2,536 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 5,247 11,902 5,051 4,699 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 1,704 2,953 1,874 1,681 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 12,304 -2.6 5,530 6,774 12,494 5,742 6,888 452 General merchandise stores....................... 82,068 5.3 41,070 40,998 69,990 39,424 38,541 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 28,682 -0.3 14,512 14,170 30,617 14,771 14,006 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 14,826 31,308 15,136 14,337 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 26,828 39,373 24,653 24,535 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 23,897 34,023 21,699 21,692 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 2,931 5,350 2,954 2,843 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 18,319 1.8 9,120 9,199 12,461 8,993 9,001 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 48,509 9.8 23,455 25,054 29,903 21,495 22,699 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 15,730 21,077 13,174 14,347 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 67,574 4.7 33,394 34,180 38,393 31,911 32,619 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (4) With the introduction of a new sample with estimates for the September 2006 data month, we have identified a change in the seasonal pattern for estimates in Men's clothing stores (NAICS 44811). As a result, we have temporarily suspended the release of seasonally adjusted estimates for this industry. Because of the seasonal adjustment methodology, we have also suppressed from publication all estimates back through the September 2005 data month for this industry. We will continue to provide estimates not adjusted for seasonality; however, these estimates should be used with caution as the new sample estimates may not be comparable with estimates from the old sample. We plan to evaluate the seasonal adjustment of this industry in spring 2007 as part of our annual revision process. (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals. TABLE 2. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--February 2007 (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Feb Jan 2007 2007 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jan Feb Dec Jan Code 2007 2006 2006 2006 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +0.1 +3.2 0.0 +2.2 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -0.1 +3.1 +0.2 +3.1 Retail .................................. +0.2 +3.1 +0.1 +2.0 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +0.9 +3.8 -0.9 -1.1 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... +1.0 +4.5 -0.8 -0.8 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -1.7 +3.7 +3.3 +4.0 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -0.3 +4.2 -2.6 +2.1 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -1.4 -6.5 -0.2 -4.6 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.6 +5.3 +0.2 +5.5 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.6 +5.1 +0.4 +5.4 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 0.0 +6.1 +0.2 +6.9 447 Gasoline stations................................ +1.2 +0.6 -0.5 -2.3 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -1.8 +5.2 +2.5 +6.6 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -0.8 -3.4 +0.8 -3.0 452 General merchandise stores....................... -0.6 +4.1 +1.1 +5.1 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -1.6 -1.5 +1.0 -0.4 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +0.3 +1.4 -1.6 +1.2 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +2.8 +9.1 +0.5 +8.2 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... +2.3 +10.3 -1.0 +8.2 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -1.2 +4.6 -1.1 +4.8 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. Feb Jan 2007 2007 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jan Feb Dec Jan Code 2007 2006 2006 2006 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -2.1 +3.4 -20.9 +4.3 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -3.7 +3.2 -24.0 +4.7 Retail .................................. -2.1 +3.2 -21.9 +4.2 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +4.2 +4.0 -5.8 +2.5 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ +4.9 +4.7 -6.0 +2.8 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -3.7 +3.8 -19.5 +6.7 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -5.4 +4.6 -43.1 +3.7 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -6.8 -7.0 -5.7 -2.0 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -5.4 +5.3 -12.5 +6.6 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -6.3 +5.2 -7.6 +6.5 446 Health & personal care stores.................... -6.3 +5.9 -8.4 +9.0 447 Gasoline stations................................ -4.4 +0.2 -5.1 -0.9 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +8.4 +4.6 -55.6 +8.2 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -18.4 -3.7 -45.8 -1.7 452 General merchandise stores....................... +0.2 +4.2 -41.4 +6.4 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +2.4 -1.8 -53.7 +1.2 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -0.9 +1.4 -26.2 +2.2 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -6.4 +9.1 -16.2 +10.4 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -2.3 +4.6 -11.0 +4.8 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--FEBRUARY 2007 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.