************************************************************************************************ ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES SUMMARY - JANUARY 2005 ************************************************************************************************ Intention to Revise Retail Estimates: Monthly retail sales estimates will be revised based on the results of the 2003 Annual Retail Trade Survey and the preliminary results of the 2002 Census of Retail Trade. Revised unadjusted and corresponding adjusted data are scheduled for release on March 31, 2005. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $347.7 billion, a decrease of 0.3 percent (±0.7%)* from the previous month, but up 7.2 percent (±1.0%) from January 2004. Total sales for the November 2004 through January 2005 period were up 7.6 percent (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The November to December 2004 percent change was revised from +1.2 percent (±0.2%) to +1.1 percent (±0.4%). Retail trade sales were down 0.4 percent (±0.7%)* from December 2004, but were 7.1 percent (±1.0%) above last year. Gasoline station sales were up 17.3 percent (±2.8%) from January 2004 and sales of building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers were up 14.1 percent (±2.3%) from last year. The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau’s full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication. The Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services for February is scheduled to be released March 15, 2005 at 8:30 a.m. EST. * The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero. TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--January 2005 (Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2005 2004 2004 2004 2003 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Jan(3) Dec Nov Jan Dec Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 347,665 348,767 344,877 324,420 320,943 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 268,515 266,899 266,141 249,472 245,532 Retail ....................................... 313,730 315,078 311,555 292,856 290,012 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 86,359 86,173 83,569 82,478 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 79,150 81,868 78,736 74,948 75,411 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 71,550 74,364 71,487 68,084 68,448 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 8,764 8,777 8,732 8,517 8,429 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,401 8,449 8,542 8,323 8,280 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 6,097 6,113 5,930 5,870 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 2,352 2,429 2,393 2,410 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 31,877 31,960 31,409 27,943 27,935 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 28,366 27,848 24,728 24,711 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 45,151 45,004 44,903 43,218 42,663 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 40,652 40,435 40,268 38,779 38,324 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 2,792 2,826 2,756 2,753 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 17,218 17,120 17,174 16,635 16,625 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 14,496 14,590 14,135 14,138 447 Gasoline stations................................ 28,149 27,641 28,243 23,998 22,765 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 16,238 15,953 15,985 15,640 15,417 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 994 997 931 911 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,029 3,036 2,966 3,003 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 1,931 1,926 1,945 1,942 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 6,803 6,761 6,793 6,793 6,711 452 General merchandise stores....................... 43,590 43,204 42,839 40,947 40,337 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 18,039 17,983 17,918 17,787 17,711 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 25,221 24,921 23,160 22,626 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) 21,627 21,355 19,705 19,207 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,594 3,566 3,455 3,419 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,588 9,504 9,511 9,006 8,890 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 18,801 18,837 18,688 16,888 16,549 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 11,742 11,620 10,760 10,593 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 33,935 33,689 33,322 31,564 30,931 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variabIlity. Individuals who use estimates in this report to create new estimates should cite the Census Bureau as the source of only the original estimates. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--January 2005 Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 1 month total % Chg. 2005 2004 2004 2004 2003 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2005 from Jan(2) Dec Nov Jan Dec Code 2004 (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 308,076 4.5 308,076 406,329 342,523 294,797 371,745 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 241,094 5.4 241,094 327,194 271,226 228,732 299,880 Retail ....................................... 276,618 4.4 276,618 372,135 310,900 265,064 340,752 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 135,774 94,343 71,941 128,415 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 66,982 1.4 66,982 79,135 71,297 66,065 71,865 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 60,317 0.8 60,317 71,984 64,338 59,846 65,299 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 61,124 54,083 50,665 56,208 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 7,151 6,959 6,219 6,566 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 7,774 -0.2 7,774 10,664 9,596 7,793 10,182 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 5,351 5,080 4,436 4,981 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 5,313 4,516 3,357 5,201 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 7,759 -1.2 7,759 13,795 9,487 7,854 13,403 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 10,523 6,975 5,533 10,085 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 3,272 2,512 2,321 3,318 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 24,885 10.8 24,885 29,119 30,149 22,465 25,425 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 26,409 27,514 20,623 23,055 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 43,953 2.4 43,953 49,692 44,394 42,902 46,347 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 40,205 3.0 40,205 43,185 39,745 39,050 40,279 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 3,996 2,905 2,406 3,849 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 16,770 1.4 16,770 19,568 16,882 16,535 19,002 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 16,525 14,400 14,177 16,188 447 Gasoline stations................................ 25,334 14.6 25,334 26,922 27,142 22,102 21,786 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 12,024 2.1 12,024 28,453 17,228 11,773 26,890 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 1,730 1,108 756 1,530 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,619 3,182 2,343 4,465 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 9,829 6,633 3,972 9,052 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,565 1,843 1,492 2,519 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 6,381 -1.8 6,381 12,305 7,561 6,501 12,126 452 General merchandise stores....................... 36,835 6.1 36,835 65,734 47,085 34,725 60,817 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 14,083 0.7 14,083 31,757 20,622 13,981 30,735 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 32,112 20,839 14,139 31,138 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 33,977 26,463 20,744 30,082 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) (*) (*) 28,396 22,530 17,932 24,912 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 5,581 3,933 2,812 5,170 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 8,671 2.9 8,671 11,915 9,602 8,425 11,263 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 19,250 7.4 19,250 24,833 20,477 17,924 21,646 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 16,075 12,840 10,577 14,427 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 31,458 5.8 31,458 34,194 31,623 29,733 30,993 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Individuals who use estimates in this report to create new estimates should cite the Census Bureau as the source of only the original estimates. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html TABLE 2. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--January 2005 (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Jan Dec 2005 2004 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Dec Jan Nov Dec Code 2004 2004 2004 2003 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -0.3 +7.2 +1.1 +8.7 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +0.6 +7.6 +0.3 +8.7 Retail .................................. -0.4 +7.1 +1.1 +8.6 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -3.3 +5.6 +4.0 +8.6 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... -3.8 +5.1 +4.0 +8.6 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -0.1 +2.9 +0.5 +4.1 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -0.6 +0.9 -1.1 +2.0 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -0.3 +14.1 +1.8 +14.4 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.3 +4.5 +0.2 +5.5 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.5 +4.8 +0.4 +5.5 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.6 +3.5 -0.3 +3.0 447 Gasoline stations................................ +1.8 +17.3 -2.1 +21.4 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +1.8 +3.8 -0.2 +3.5 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +0.6 +0.1 -0.5 +0.7 452 General merchandise stores....................... +0.9 +6.5 +0.9 +7.1 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +0.3 +1.4 +0.4 +1.5 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +0.9 +6.5 -0.1 +6.9 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -0.2 +11.3 +0.8 +13.8 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.7 +7.5 +1.1 +8.9 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. Jan Dec 2005 2004 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Dec Jan Nov Dec Code 2004 2004 2004 2003 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -24.2 +4.5 +18.6 +9.3 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -26.3 +5.4 +20.6 +9.1 Retail .................................. -25.7 +4.4 +19.7 +9.2 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -15.4 +1.4 +11.0 +10.1 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ -16.2 +0.8 +11.9 +10.2 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -27.1 -0.2 +11.1 +4.7 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -43.8 -1.2 +45.4 +2.9 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -14.5 +10.8 -3.4 +14.5 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -11.5 +2.4 +11.9 +7.2 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -6.9 +3.0 +8.7 +7.2 446 Health & personal care stores.................... -14.3 +1.4 +15.9 +3.0 447 Gasoline stations................................ -5.9 +14.6 -0.8 +23.6 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -57.7 +2.1 +65.2 +5.8 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -48.1 -1.8 +62.7 +1.5 452 General merchandise stores....................... -44.0 +6.1 +39.6 +8.1 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -55.7 +0.7 +54.0 +3.3 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -27.2 +2.9 +24.1 +5.8 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -22.5 +7.4 +21.3 +14.7 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -8.0 +5.8 +8.1 +10.3 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--JANUARY 2005 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.