FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

WEDNESDAY, JUNE 13, 2007, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT


Scott Scheleur / Aneta Lukasik                                                                                                                                                                                            CB07-79
Service Sector Statistics Division
(301) 763-2713

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICES


MAY 2007

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $377.9 billion, an increase of 1.4 percent (±0.7%) from the previous month and 5.0 percent (±0.7%) above May 2006. Total sales for the March through May 2007 period were up 4.2 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The March to April 2007 percent change was revised from -0.2 percent (± 0.7%)* to -0.1 percent (± 0.2%)*.

Retail trade sales were up 1.5 percent (±0.7%) from April 2007 and were 4.9 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Clothing and clothing accessories stores were up 7.8 percent (±1.5%) from May 2006 and sales of nonstore retailers were up 7.7 percent (±4.5%) from last year.

The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.

Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales

(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales for Retail and Food Services for June is scheduled to be released July 13, 2007 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.



TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--May 2007

Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 NAICS(1) Kind of Business May(3) Apr Mar May Apr Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 377,885 372,631 372,851 359,961 361,376 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 299,291 295,451 295,269 286,201 285,687 Retail ....................................... 340,721 335,708 336,007 324,763 326,298 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 96,894 97,692 93,434 93,703 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 78,594 77,180 77,582 73,760 75,689 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 72,293 70,969 71,271 67,691 69,589 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 10,390 10,357 10,362 10,078 10,051 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 9,380 9,263 9,220 8,962 8,972 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 7,461 7,444 7,219 7,246 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,802 1,776 1,743 1,726 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 29,614 29,014 29,676 30,114 30,736 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 25,571 25,857 26,792 27,149 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 47,547 47,403 47,151 44,823 44,539 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 42,422 42,277 41,950 39,989 39,740 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 3,280 3,336 3,129 3,105 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 19,819 19,652 19,550 18,537 18,309 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 16,666 16,528 15,651 15,472 447 Gasoline stations................................ 36,374 35,046 34,437 35,065 34,835 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 19,061 18,563 18,843 17,676 17,748 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (S) (S) (S) (S) 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,359 3,394 3,245 3,291 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,227 2,279 2,243 2,253 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,461 7,332 7,401 7,280 7,362 452 General merchandise stores....................... 47,864 47,388 47,840 45,754 45,943 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,564 17,345 17,692 17,694 17,760 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 30,043 30,148 28,060 28,183 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 26,516 26,571 24,593 24,697 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,527 3,577 3,467 3,486 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 10,154 10,068 10,140 9,999 9,908 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 24,463 24,442 23,805 22,715 22,206 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 16,175 16,058 14,931 14,899 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 37,164 36,923 36,844 35,198 35,078 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.

TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--May 2007

Estimates not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 5 month total % Chg. 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2007 from May(2) Apr Mar May Apr Code 2006 (a) (p) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 1,802,089 4.1 397,245 364,681 379,742 376,795 354,484 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 1,414,470 4.2 310,220 286,415 294,878 295,340 278,311 Retail ....................................... 1,621,119 4.0 358,594 327,906 341,277 340,330 319,125 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 89,077 94,161 90,552 87,157 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 387,619 3.8 87,025 78,266 84,864 81,455 76,173 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 357,061 4.0 80,390 72,105 78,256 75,137 70,146 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 57,985 63,804 60,716 56,547 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,161 6,608 6,318 6,027 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 48,774 3.8 10,151 9,373 10,362 9,866 9,136 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 5,074 5,641 5,164 4,903 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,299 4,721 4,702 4,233 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 42,420 3.6 8,632 7,815 8,691 8,243 7,611 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 6,193 6,901 6,685 6,058 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,622 1,790 1,558 1,553 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 145,100 -3.3 36,518 31,914 29,956 36,763 33,377 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 26,722 25,728 30,704 27,828 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 229,938 6.3 49,368 45,801 47,224 46,201 43,687 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 206,350 6.2 44,161 40,966 42,286 41,269 39,104 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 3,031 3,176 3,145 2,906 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 97,864 7.3 20,374 19,239 20,254 19,130 17,833 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 16,299 17,024 16,136 15,085 447 Gasoline stations................................ 165,481 1.5 39,029 34,941 33,817 37,485 34,696 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 83,876 7.2 18,805 17,403 18,250 17,234 16,975 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 860 802 760 758 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,466 3,452 3,404 3,442 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 6,675 7,260 6,345 6,534 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,294 2,359 2,223 2,388 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 32,323 0.1 6,745 6,232 6,868 6,545 6,331 452 General merchandise stores....................... 220,404 4.9 47,653 44,864 46,243 45,214 44,047 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 77,921 -1.0 16,854 16,070 16,493 16,912 16,709 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 16,492 16,934 17,396 17,186 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 28,794 29,750 28,302 27,338 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 25,429 26,305 24,814 23,981 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,365 3,445 3,488 3,357 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 48,163 1.9 10,987 9,344 9,866 10,631 9,148 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 119,157 9.6 23,307 22,714 24,882 21,563 20,111 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 15,124 16,106 14,543 13,603 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 180,970 5.2 38,651 36,775 38,465 36,465 35,359 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.

TABLE 2A. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--May 2007

Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) May Apr 2007 2007 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Apr May Mar Apr Code 2007 2006 2007 2006 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +1.4 +5.0 -0.1 +3.1 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +1.3 +4.6 +0.1 +3.4 Retail .................................. +1.5 +4.9 -0.1 +2.9 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +1.8 +6.6 -0.5 +2.0 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... +1.9 +6.8 -0.4 +2.0 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +0.3 +3.1 0.0 +3.0 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +1.3 +4.7 +0.5 +3.2 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +2.1 -1.7 -2.2 -5.6 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.3 +6.1 +0.5 +6.4 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.3 +6.1 +0.8 +6.4 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.8 +6.9 +0.5 +7.3 447 Gasoline stations................................ +3.8 +3.7 +1.8 +0.6 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +2.7 +7.8 -1.5 +4.6 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +1.8 +2.5 -0.9 -0.4 452 General merchandise stores....................... +1.0 +4.6 -0.9 +3.1 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +1.3 -0.7 -2.0 -2.3 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +0.9 +1.6 -0.7 +1.6 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +0.1 +7.7 +2.7 +10.1 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.7 +5.6 +0.2 +5.3 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1A of this report.

TABLE 2B. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--May 2007

Data not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) May Apr 2007 2007 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Apr May Mar Apr Code 2007 2006 2007 2006 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +8.9 +5.4 -4.0 +2.9 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +8.3 +5.0 -2.9 +2.9 Retail .................................. +9.4 +5.4 -3.9 +2.8 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +11.2 +6.8 -7.8 +2.7 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ +11.5 +7.0 -7.9 +2.8 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +8.3 +2.9 -9.5 +2.6 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +10.5 +4.7 -10.1 +2.7 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +14.4 -0.7 +6.5 -4.4 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +7.8 +6.9 -3.0 +4.8 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +7.8 +7.0 -3.1 +4.8 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +5.9 +6.5 -5.0 +7.9 447 Gasoline stations................................ +11.7 +4.1 +3.3 +0.7 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +8.1 +9.1 -4.6 +2.5 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +8.2 +3.1 -9.3 -1.6 452 General merchandise stores....................... +6.2 +5.4 -3.0 +1.9 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +4.9 -0.3 -2.6 -3.8 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +17.6 +3.3 -5.3 +2.1 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +2.6 +8.1 -8.7 +12.9 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +5.1 +6.0 -4.4 +4.0 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from not adjusted estimates provided in Table 1B of this report.
SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--MAY 2007 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.

Survey Description

The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.

Reliability of Estimates

Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.


(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation, or holiday, or trading-day differences. Medians are based on estimates for the period August 2006 to present.

(2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median differences are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html
o Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales

Source: Retail Indicators Branch, U.S. Census Bureau | Last Revised: June 13, 2007