ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES: Latest Release

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

FRIDAY, MAY 11, 2007, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT

Scott Scheleur / Aneta Lukasik CB07-66
Service Sector Statistics Division
(301) 763-2713

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICES

APRIL 2007

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates

Retail trade sales were down 0.2 percent (±0.7%)* but were 3.0 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Nonstore up 9.3 percent (±4.5%) from April 2006 and sales care stores were up 8.1 percent (±1.7%) from last year.

The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent retail and food services firms. Responding firms account estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this

Percent Change in Retail and Food Services (Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday,

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales for Retail and is scheduled to be released June 13, 2007 at 8:30 a.m.
For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site This report is also available the day of issue through STAT-USA (202-482-1986).
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that is different than zero.

TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND OF BUSINESS--April 2007
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) NAICS(1) Kind of Business Code Retail & food services, total.................... Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ Retail ....................................... GAFO(4).......................................... 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... 44312 Computer & software stores...................... 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ 447 Gasoline stations................................ 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... 4482 Shoe stores..................................... 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 452 General merchandise stores....................... 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... 722 Food services & drinking places.................. (*) Advance estimates are not available (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/retail>. the Department of Commerce's The Census Bureau does the actual change FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 Apr(3) Mar Feb Apr Mar (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) 372,034 372,876 369,287 360,607 357,255 295,418 295,459 292,178 284,974 282,253 335,216 336,013 332,929 325,494 322,295 (*) 97,971 96,415 93,549 92,242 76,616 77,417 77,109 75,633 75,002 70,497 71,113 70,989 69,520 68,864 10,585 10,456 10,357 10,007 10,045 9,298 9,237 9,309 8,955 8,937 (*) 7,430 7,454 7,229 7,186 (*) 1,807 1,855 1,726 1,751 28,761 29,429 29,143 30,609 30,778 (*) 25,599 25,440 27,123 27,539 47,428 47,177 46,896 44,479 44,370 42,312 41,976 41,788 39,699 39,644 (*) 3,337 3,271 3,095 3,054 19,724 19,555 19,442 18,253 18,372 (*) 16,544 16,471 15,472 15,476 35,061 34,458 33,403 34,558 32,854 18,502 18,884 18,471 17,671 17,374 (*) (S) (S) (S) (S) (*) 3,389 3,331 3,269 3,205 (*) 2,305 2,224 2,253 2,165 7,347 7,404 7,203 7,336 7,314 47,388 47,961 47,201 45,954 44,994 17,315 17,683 17,511 17,771 17,663 (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (*) 30,278 29,690 28,183 27,331 (*) 26,598 26,188 24,697 23,863 (*) 3,680 3,502 3,486 3,468 10,275 10,233 9,932 9,865 9,803 24,231 23,802 24,463 22,174 22,452 (*) 16,038 15,982 14,883 15,158 36,818 36,863 36,358 35,113 34,960 for this kind of business. (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found .edu/eot2008/20090508060712/http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html">http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals. AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--April 2007 differences, and price changes. Change) 4 month total % Chg. 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 2007 from Apr(2) Mar Feb Apr Mar 2006 (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) 1,406,374 3.9 365,409 380,544 327,624 354,484 364,206 1,106,132 4.2 287,597 295,578 257,427 278,311 281,491 1,264,139 3.7 328,775 342,022 294,356 319,125 328,162 (*) (*) (*) 94,392 83,015 87,157 88,077 300,242 2.8 77,812 84,966 70,197 76,173 82,715 276,442 3.0 71,766 78,366 64,671 70,146 76,233 (*) (*) (*) 63,816 53,428 56,547 62,526 (*) (*) (*) 6,600 5,526 6,027 6,482 38,966 5.0 9,664 10,414 9,249 9,136 9,995 (*) (*) (*) 5,631 5,324 4,903 5,417 (*) (*) (*) 4,783 3,925 4,233 4,578 33,891 3.6 7,883 8,726 8,449 7,611 8,473 (*) (*) (*) 6,917 6,783 6,058 6,683 (*) (*) (*) 1,809 1,666 1,553 1,790 108,774 -4.0 32,118 29,944 22,771 33,377 31,481 (*) (*) (*) 25,727 20,479 27,828 27,980 180,636 6.2 45,847 47,244 42,535 43,687 44,026 162,292 6.0 41,043 42,312 38,194 39,104 39,604 (*) (*) (*) 3,180 2,748 2,906 2,862 77,625 7.7 19,389 20,239 18,450 17,833 19,089 (*) (*) (*) 17,040 15,631 15,085 16,002 127,219 1.3 35,377 34,148 28,292 34,696 32,690 65,053 6.6 17,369 18,266 15,307 16,975 16,493 (*) (*) (*) 811 691 758 721 (*) (*) (*) 3,467 2,665 3,442 3,250 (*) (*) (*) 7,217 5,457 6,534 6,291 (*) (*) (*) 2,363 1,913 2,388 2,174 25,616 -0.5 6,282 6,856 5,647 6,331 6,678 172,863 4.8 44,822 46,397 40,844 44,047 43,066 61,074 -1.1 16,033 16,537 14,426 16,709 16,399 (*) (*) (*) 16,995 14,806 17,186 16,858 (*) (*) (*) 29,860 26,418 27,338 26,667 (*) (*) (*) 26,305 23,438 23,981 23,338 (*) (*) (*) 3,555 2,980 3,357 3,329 37,546 2.5 9,653 9,927 8,849 9,148 9,524 95,708 9.8 22,559 24,895 23,766 20,111 23,932 (*) (*) (*) 16,086 14,400 13,603 15,446 142,235 4.9 36,634 38,522 33,268 35,359 36,044 for this kind of business. (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample.
All other estimates are from the MRTS sample.

(3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443),
clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532).

(4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals. AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--April 2007 the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Apr Mar 2007 2007 adv. prel. from-- from-- Mar Apr Feb Mar 2007 2006 2007 2006 (p) (r) (r) (r) -0.2 +3.2 +1.0 +4.4 0.0 +3.7 +1.1 +4.7 -0.2 +3.0 +0.9 +4.3 -1.0 +1.3 +0.4 +3.2 -0.9 +1.4 +0.2 +3.3 +1.2 +5.8 +1.0 +4.1 +0.7 +3.8 -0.8 +3.4 -2.3 -6.0 +1.0 -4.4 +0.5 +6.6 +0.6 +6.3 +0.8 +6.6 +0.4 +5.9 +0.9 +8.1 +0.6 +6.4 +1.7 +1.5 +3.2 +4.9 -2.0 +4.7 +2.2 +8.7 -0.8 +0.1 +2.8 +1.2 -1.2 +3.1 +1.6 +6.6 -2.1 -2.6 +1.0 +0.1 +0.4 +4.2 +3.0 +4.4 +1.8 +9.3 -2.7 +6.0 -0.1 +4.9 +1.4 +5.4 estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. differences, and price changes. Apr Mar 2007 2007 adv. prel. from-- from-- Mar Apr Feb Mar 2007 2006 2007 2006 (p) (r) (r) (r) -4.0 +3.1 +16.2 +4.5 -2.7 +3.3 +14.8 +5.0 -3.9 +3.0 +16.2 +4.2 -8.4 +2.2 +21.0 +2.7 -8.4 +2.3 +21.2 +2.8 -7.2 +5.8 +12.6 +4.2 -9.7 +3.6 +3.3 +3.0 +7.3 -3.8 +31.5 -4.9 -3.0 +4.9 +11.1 +7.3 -3.0 +5.0 +10.8 +6.8 -4.2 +8.7 +9.7 +6.0 +3.6 +2.0 +20.7 +4.5 -4.9 +2.3 +19.3 +10.8 -8.4 -0.8 +21.4 +2.7 -3.4 +1.8 +13.6 +7.7 -3.0 -4.0 +14.6 +0.8 -2.8 +5.5 +12.2 +4.2 -9.4 +12.2 +4.8 +4.0 -4.9 +3.6 +15.8 +6.9 estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Services--APRIL Information Office, and measures Press Release. Questions Scheleur (301) 763-2713.

Survey Description

The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.

Reliability of Estimates

Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.

(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation, or holiday, or trading-day differences. Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.
(2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median differences are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.
Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html
Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales

Source: U. S. Census Bureau Service Sector Statistics Division

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