FRIDAY, JANUARY 13, 2006, AT 8:30 A.M. EST
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Intention to Revise Retail Estimates: Monthly retail sales estimates will be revised based on the 2004 Annual Retail Trade Survey and the results of the 2002 Census of Retail Trade. Revised unadjusted and corresponding adjusted data are scheduled for release on March 30, 2006. |
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $357.8 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent (±0.7%)* from the previous month and up 6.4 percent (±0.8%) from December 2004. Total sales for the 12 months of 2005 were up 7.3 percent (±0.2%) from 2004. Total sales for the October through December 2005 period were up 6.3 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The October to November 2005 percent change was revised from +0.3 percent (±0.7%)* to +0.8 percent (±0.3%).
Retail trade sales were up 0.7 percent (±0.8%)* from November and were up 6.3 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Gasoline station sales were up 17.9 percent (±3.3%) from December 2004 and sales of nonstore retailers were up 10.6 percent (±3.5%) from last year.
The scheduled release dates for 2006 are as follows: January 13, February 14, March 14, April 13, May 11, June 13, July 14, August 11, September 14, October 13, November 14, December 13.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau’s full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
The Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report for January is scheduled to be released February 14, 2006 at 8:30 a.m. EST.
For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the
actual change is different than zero.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--December 2005
Data adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2005 2005 2005 2004 2004 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Dec(3) Nov Oct Dec Nov Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 357,841 355,387 352,541 336,432 332,874 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 280,630 280,119 281,332 259,864 258,200 Retail ....................................... 322,693 320,413 317,923 303,677 300,589 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 90,518 90,512 85,656 85,345 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 77,211 75,268 71,209 76,568 74,674 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 70,933 68,981 65,074 70,671 68,961 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 9,263 9,271 9,231 8,774 8,671 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,539 8,550 8,515 7,966 7,996 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 6,960 6,932 6,435 6,391 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,590 1,583 1,531 1,605 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 28,943 29,110 28,710 26,379 25,652 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 25,724 25,420 23,260 22,661 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 44,431 44,248 44,261 42,334 42,221 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 39,573 39,442 39,510 38,096 37,942 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 2,940 2,906 2,649 2,680 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 18,714 18,652 18,460 17,398 17,374 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 15,823 15,675 14,728 14,894 447 Gasoline stations................................ 33,875 33,579 35,779 28,728 29,017 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 17,172 17,179 17,197 16,029 16,043 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 839 830 815 823 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,209 3,173 2,959 2,969 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,153 2,137 1,998 1,942 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 6,875 6,773 6,857 6,609 6,705 452 General merchandise stores....................... 45,302 45,438 45,351 43,113 42,694 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 17,733 18,012 17,905 18,145 18,011 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 27,426 27,446 24,968 24,683 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 23,981 23,964 21,600 21,354 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,445 3,482 3,368 3,329 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,600 9,679 9,769 9,195 9,270 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 22,768 22,666 22,584 20,584 20,272 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 14,251 14,079 12,812 12,689 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 35,148 34,974 34,618 32,755 32,285 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--December 2005
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 12 month total % Chg. 2005 2005 2005 2004 2004 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2005 from Dec(2) Nov Oct Dec Nov Code 2004 (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 4,186,021 7.3 417,895 352,743 345,335 393,631 330,108 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 3,268,966 8.3 342,978 285,942 279,771 319,419 263,375 Retail ....................................... 3,778,839 7.3 381,657 319,588 310,440 360,352 299,470 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 99,315 87,273 134,521 93,285 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 917,055 4.0 74,917 66,801 65,564 74,212 66,733 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 844,233 3.6 68,947 60,703 59,478 68,551 61,237 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 50,568 48,779 58,759 51,984 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,098 6,086 5,661 5,496 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 109,064 5.1 11,412 10,244 9,139 10,809 9,573 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 5,314 4,930 5,371 5,078 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,930 4,209 5,438 4,495 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 100,413 6.2 13,965 9,518 7,766 13,049 8,873 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 7,907 6,232 10,933 7,247 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,611 1,534 2,116 1,626 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 332,593 9.7 25,907 28,068 29,159 23,948 24,733 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 25,390 26,310 21,609 22,457 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 522,643 4.9 49,596 44,063 43,789 46,778 41,782 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 467,150 4.3 42,581 39,245 39,194 40,725 37,487 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 3,014 2,874 3,785 2,752 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 218,297 6.3 21,109 18,260 18,109 19,764 17,044 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 15,522 15,424 16,775 14,611 447 Gasoline stations................................ 387,908 21.0 32,351 31,967 37,496 27,378 27,624 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 201,668 6.1 30,544 18,459 16,549 28,391 17,210 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 921 818 1,413 905 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,379 3,138 4,498 3,109 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 7,432 6,527 10,287 6,944 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,069 2,034 2,671 1,860 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 81,543 1.8 12,491 7,423 6,041 11,963 7,342 452 General merchandise stores....................... 533,162 6.0 67,780 50,220 44,540 65,421 46,925 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 214,682 -0.6 30,972 21,113 17,404 31,936 20,760 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 21,322 17,568 32,317 21,003 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 29,107 27,136 33,485 26,165 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 25,276 23,724 28,274 22,486 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,831 3,412 5,211 3,679 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 114,295 5.9 12,118 9,803 9,634 11,619 9,421 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 260,198 11.5 29,467 24,762 22,654 27,020 22,210 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 15,562 13,854 17,578 13,945 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 407,182 7.1 36,238 33,155 34,895 33,279 30,638 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 2. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--November 2005
Data adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Dec Nov 2005 2005 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Nov Dec Oct Nov Code 2005 2004 2005 2004 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +0.7 +6.4 +0.8 +6.8 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +0.2 +8.0 -0.4 +8.5 Retail .................................. +0.7 +6.3 +0.8 +6.6 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +2.6 +0.8 +5.7 +0.8 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... +2.8 +0.4 +6.0 0.0 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -0.1 +5.6 +0.4 +6.9 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -0.1 +7.2 +0.4 +6.9 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -0.6 +9.7 +1.4 +13.5 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.4 +5.0 0.0 +4.8 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.3 +3.9 -0.2 +4.0 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.3 +7.6 +1.0 +7.4 447 Gasoline stations................................ +0.9 +17.9 -6.1 +15.7 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 0.0 +7.1 -0.1 +7.1 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +1.5 +4.0 -1.2 +1.0 452 General merchandise stores....................... -0.3 +5.1 +0.2 +6.4 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -1.5 -2.3 +0.6 0.0 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -0.8 +4.4 -0.9 +4.4 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +0.5 +10.6 +0.4 +11.8 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.5 +7.3 +1.0 +8.3 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. Dec Nov 2005 2005 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Nov Dec Oct Nov Code 2005 2004 2005 2004 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +18.5 +6.2 +2.1 +6.9 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +19.9 +7.4 +2.2 +8.6 Retail .................................. +19.4 +5.9 +2.9 +6.7 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +12.1 +0.9 +1.9 +0.1 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ +13.6 +0.6 +2.1 -0.9 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +11.4 +5.6 +12.1 +7.0 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +46.7 +7.0 +22.6 +7.3 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -7.7 +8.2 -3.7 +13.5 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +12.6 +6.0 +0.6 +5.5 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +8.5 +4.6 +0.1 +4.7 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +15.6 +6.8 +0.8 +7.1 447 Gasoline stations................................ +1.2 +18.2 -14.7 +15.7 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +65.5 +7.6 +11.5 +7.3 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +68.3 +4.4 +22.9 +1.1 452 General merchandise stores....................... +35.0 +3.6 +12.8 +7.0 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +46.7 -3.0 +21.3 +1.7 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +23.6 +4.3 +1.8 +4.1 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +19.0 +9.1 +9.3 +11.5 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +9.3 +8.9 -5.0 +8.2 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--DECEMBER 2005 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
3rd Quarter 2005 Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division
