FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
TUESDAY, MARCH 15, 2005, AT 8:30 A.M. EST
| Notice of Revision: Monthly retail sales were revised based on the results of the 2003 Annual Retail Trade Survey and preliminary results from the 2002 Census of Retail Trade. The Annual Benchmark Report for Retail Trade and Food Services showing revised unadjusted and adjusted data was released on March 31, 2005 and can be found on our website at http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/artstbl.html. |
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $352.1 billion, an increase of 0.5 percent (±0.7%)* from the previous month and up 7.7 percent (±0.8%) from February 2004. Total sales for the December 2004 through February 2005 period were up 8.2 percent (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The December 2004 to January 2005 percent change was revised from -0.3 percent (±0.7%)* to +0.3 percent (±0.3%)*.
Retail trade sales were up 0.4 percent (±0.7%)* from January and were 7.7 percent (±1.0%) above last year. Gasoline station sales were up 16.4 percent (±3.0%) from February 2004 and sales of building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers were up 13.1 percent (±2.3%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
The Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report for March is scheduled to be released April 13, 2005 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the
actual change is different than zero.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--February 2005
(Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2005 2005 2004 2004 2004 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Feb(3) Jan Dec Feb Jan Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 352,138 350,369 349,308 326,875 324,217 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 271,135 269,925 267,121 250,181 249,276 Retail ....................................... 317,660 316,301 315,514 295,000 292,620 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 87,384 86,483 83,956 83,639 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 81,003 80,444 82,187 76,694 74,941 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 73,408 72,777 74,678 69,699 68,084 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 8,961 8,897 8,820 8,519 8,498 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,819 8,681 8,509 8,268 8,293 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 6,323 6,149 5,940 5,905 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 2,358 2,360 2,328 2,388 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 31,750 32,163 31,984 28,061 27,871 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 28,541 28,338 24,820 24,639 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 45,481 45,296 44,979 43,027 43,246 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 40,709 40,623 40,389 38,603 38,817 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 2,799 2,791 2,757 2,759 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 17,631 17,585 17,186 16,404 16,552 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 14,852 14,567 13,996 14,051 447 Gasoline stations................................ 28,339 28,081 27,580 24,348 23,972 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 16,462 16,277 16,001 15,680 15,580 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 979 1,001 919 932 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,105 3,028 2,958 2,966 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 1,965 1,948 1,952 1,945 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 6,656 6,651 6,705 6,925 6,836 452 General merchandise stores....................... 43,925 43,633 43,231 41,202 41,074 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 18,180 18,083 18,026 18,020 17,840 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 25,550 25,205 23,182 23,234 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) 21,984 21,609 19,709 19,771 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,566 3,596 3,473 3,463 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,524 9,482 9,418 8,890 9,019 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 19,109 19,111 18,914 16,982 16,738 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 11,954 11,778 10,778 10,695 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 34,478 34,068 33,794 31,875 31,597 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html. (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html. (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--February 2005
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 2 month total % Chg. 2005 2005 2004 2004 2004 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2005 from Feb(2) Jan Dec Feb Jan Code 2004 (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 623,739 5.5 312,911 310,828 406,081 296,443 294,797 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 481,895 6.0 239,150 242,745 326,927 225,878 228,732 Retail ....................................... 560,645 5.5 281,364 279,281 371,848 266,449 265,064 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 74,060 135,662 73,823 71,941 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 141,844 3.8 73,761 68,083 79,154 70,565 66,065 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 128,299 3.4 66,948 61,351 71,990 64,193 59,846 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 50,696 61,116 53,670 50,665 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,732 7,164 6,372 6,219 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 15,965 2.5 8,038 7,927 10,672 7,778 7,793 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 4,475 5,370 4,411 4,436 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,452 5,302 3,367 3,357 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 15,974 3.5 7,904 8,070 13,769 7,583 7,854 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 5,842 10,515 5,423 5,533 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,228 3,254 2,160 2,321 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 50,161 11.9 24,972 25,189 29,113 22,351 22,465 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 23,204 26,411 20,452 20,623 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 85,225 2.9 41,133 44,092 49,676 39,940 42,902 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 77,222 2.7 37,086 40,136 43,176 36,132 39,050 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,348 3,996 2,324 2,406 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 34,035 5.0 16,767 17,268 19,575 15,879 16,535 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 14,763 16,533 13,520 14,177 447 Gasoline stations................................ 50,126 14.1 24,797 25,329 26,863 21,816 22,102 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 25,756 2.5 13,727 12,029 28,431 13,344 11,773 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 775 1,729 741 756 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 2,400 4,599 2,473 2,343 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,132 9,825 4,274 3,972 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 1,468 2,577 1,708 1,492 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 11,384 -5.6 5,205 6,179 12,290 5,554 6,501 452 General merchandise stores....................... 74,352 4.6 37,605 36,747 65,667 36,355 34,725 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 28,863 -0.8 14,785 14,078 31,757 15,104 13,981 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 14,204 32,112 15,290 14,139 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 22,669 33,910 21,251 20,744 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) (*) (*) 19,852 28,329 18,191 17,932 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 2,817 5,581 3,060 2,812 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 17,240 3.2 8,699 8,541 11,782 8,279 8,425 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 38,583 10.5 18,756 19,827 24,856 17,005 17,924 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 11,512 16,101 9,862 10,577 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 63,094 5.6 31,547 31,547 34,233 29,994 29,733 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html. (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & accessories(448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise(452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores(4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 2. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--February 2005
(Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.) Feb Jan 2005 2005 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jan Feb Dec Jan Code 2005 2004 2004 2004 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +0.5 +7.7 +0.3 +8.1 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +0.4 +8.4 +1.0 +8.3 Retail .................................. +0.4 +7.7 +0.2 +8.1 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +0.7 +5.6 -2.1 +7.3 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... +0.9 +5.3 -2.5 +6.9 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +0.7 +5.2 +0.9 +4.7 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +1.6 +6.7 +2.0 +4.7 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -1.3 +13.1 +0.6 +15.4 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.4 +5.7 +0.7 +4.7 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.2 +5.5 +0.6 +4.7 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.3 +7.5 +2.3 +6.2 447 Gasoline stations................................ +0.9 +16.4 +1.8 +17.1 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +1.1 +5.0 +1.7 +4.5 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +0.1 -3.9 -0.8 -2.7 452 General merchandise stores....................... +0.7 +6.6 +0.9 +6.2 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +0.5 +0.9 +0.3 +1.4 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +0.4 +7.1 +0.7 +5.1 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 0.0 +12.5 +1.0 +14.2 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +1.2 +8.2 +0.8 +7.8 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. Feb Jan 2005 2005 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jan Feb Dec Jan Code 2005 2004 2004 2004 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +0.7 +5.6 -23.5 +5.4 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -1.5 +5.9 -25.7 +6.1 Retail .................................. +0.7 +5.6 -24.9 +5.4 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +8.3 +4.5 -14.0 +3.1 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ +9.1 +4.3 -14.8 +2.5 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +1.4 +3.3 -25.7 +1.7 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -2.1 +4.2 -41.4 +2.8 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -0.9 +11.7 -13.5 +12.1 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -6.7 +3.0 -11.2 +2.8 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -7.6 +2.6 -7.0 +2.8 446 Health & personal care stores.................... -2.9 +5.6 -11.8 +4.4 447 Gasoline stations................................ -2.1 +13.7 -5.7 +14.6 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +14.1 +2.9 -57.7 +2.2 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -15.8 -6.3 -49.7 -5.0 452 General merchandise stores....................... +2.3 +3.4 -44.0 +5.8 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +5.0 -2.1 -55.7 +0.7 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +1.8 +5.1 -27.5 +1.4 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -5.4 +10.3 -20.2 +10.6 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 0.0 +5.2 -7.8 +6.1 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1 of this report. Note: Table 3 provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Individuals who use estimates in this report to create new estimates should cite the Census Bureau as the source of only the original estimates. Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html. SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--FEBRUARY 2005 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous months is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html.
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
4th Quarter 2004 Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division
