CB-04-34FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. ET, Thursday, March 11, 2004
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Intention to Revise Retail Estimates: Monthly retail sales estimates will be revised based on the results of the 2002 Annual Retail Trade Survey.
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The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February, adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $327.2 billion, an increase of 0.6 percent (±0.8%) from the previous month and up 7.9 percent (±1.0%) from February 2003. Total sales for the December 2003 through February 2004 period were up 6.8 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The December 2003 to January 2004 percent change was revised from -0.3 percent (±0.8%) to +0.2 percent (±0.4%).
Retail trade sales were up 0.7 percent (±0.8%) from January and were 7.5 percent (±1.0%) above last year. Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers sales were up 14.7 percent (±2.3%) from February 2003 and sales of electronics and appliance stores were up 12.3 percent (±2.6%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section at the end of this page.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Data adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
This report is available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board. For information call (202) 482-1986.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--February 2004
Data adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (Millions of dollars) 2004 2004 2003 2003 2003 NAICS Kind of Business Feb Jan Dec Code adv. prel. final Feb(r) Jan(r) Retail & food services, total.................... 327,168 325,182 324,509 303,350 306,482 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 249,852 249,897 246,934 232,813 232,643 Retail ....................................... 295,374 293,424 293,190 274,675 277,855 GAFO............................................. (*) 84,342 83,242 78,594 78,282 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 77,316 75,285 77,575 70,537 73,839 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 70,533 68,610 70,822 64,156 67,489 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 8,682 8,718 8,623 7,732 8,008 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,390 8,346 8,329 7,471 7,476 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 6,037 6,000 5,387 5,455 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 2,309 2,329 2,084 2,021 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 28,042 28,036 28,312 24,442 25,819 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 24,565 24,794 21,274 22,648 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 43,391 43,596 42,720 41,824 41,884 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 38,835 39,139 38,381 37,821 37,847 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 2,781 2,765 2,612 2,602 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 16,344 16,550 16,464 15,528 15,423 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 14,188 14,103 13,234 13,257 447 Gasoline stations................................ 23,011 23,044 22,412 22,521 21,693 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 15,728 15,673 15,347 14,350 14,632 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 898 892 798 807 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 3,109 3,100 2,823 2,899 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 1,900 1,882 1,803 1,769 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 6,847 6,930 6,834 6,709 6,810 452 General merchandise stores....................... 41,786 41,246 40,739 38,983 38,008 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 18,412 18,189 18,059 18,289 18,198 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.).................. (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 23,057 22,680 20,694 19,810 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) 19,581 19,230 17,538 16,726 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,476 3,450 3,156 3,084 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 8,900 9,022 8,907 8,535 8,725 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 16,937 16,978 16,928 16,043 15,538 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 10,925 10,793 9,991 9,892 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 31,794 31,758 31,319 28,675 28,627 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these business classifications. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--February 2004
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 2 month total % Chg. 2004 2004 2003 2003 2003 NAICS Kind of Business 2004 from Feb Jan Dec Code 2003 adv. prel. final Feb Jan Retail & food services, total.................... 592,650 8.0 296,387 296,263 374,490 269,569 279,009 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 454,928 8.9 225,160 229,768 302,008 204,635 213,172 Retail ....................................... 533,102 7.5 266,628 266,474 343,390 243,532 252,558 GAFO............................................. (*) (*) (*) 72,815 129,875 66,435 67,077 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 137,722 5.3 71,227 66,495 72,482 64,934 65,837 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 125,616 5.3 65,102 60,514 66,148 59,280 60,065 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 51,577 57,239 50,119 51,561 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 5,981 6,334 5,654 5,772 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 15,922 11.6 7,901 8,021 10,408 6,928 7,343 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 4,602 5,159 3,969 4,181 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,419 5,249 2,959 3,162 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 15,526 12.9 7,605 7,921 13,551 6,626 7,121 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 5,663 10,362 4,730 5,128 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,258 3,189 1,896 1,993 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 44,605 10.9 22,115 22,490 25,531 19,124 21,085 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 20,487 22,984 17,296 19,160 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 83,576 5.9 40,404 43,172 46,724 37,882 41,068 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 75,723 5.1 36,427 39,296 40,607 34,493 37,582 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,428 3,893 2,176 2,253 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 32,175 7.0 15,658 16,517 18,950 14,643 15,423 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 14,202 16,204 12,586 13,323 447 Gasoline stations................................ 42,739 6.0 21,055 21,684 21,291 19,999 20,326 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 25,036 11.2 13,234 11,802 26,895 11,699 10,825 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 740 1,488 608 659 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 2,434 4,663 2,287 2,244 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,939 8,974 3,618 3,601 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 1,457 2,450 1,504 1,334 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 12,096 3.6 5,471 6,625 12,418 5,260 6,415 452 General merchandise stores....................... 71,833 10.7 36,746 35,087 61,470 32,830 32,071 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 29,525 2.2 15,298 14,227 31,243 14,640 14,247 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.).................. (*) (*) (*) 14,449 31,760 14,899 14,471 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 20,860 30,227 18,190 17,824 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) (*) (*) 18,034 25,038 15,539 15,304 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 2,826 5,189 2,651 2,520 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 16,699 4.3 8,312 8,387 11,333 7,897 8,118 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 35,173 7.8 16,900 18,273 22,337 15,710 16,926 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 10,838 14,894 8,972 9,902 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 59,548 13.5 29,759 29,789 31,100 26,037 26,451 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these business classifications. (r) Revised.TABLE 2. PERCENT CHANGE IN ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--February 2004
Data adjusted for seasonal variatons, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (Percent Change) Feb Jan 2004 2004 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jan Feb Dec Jan Code 2004 2003 2003 2003 Prel. Final Final Final Retail & food Services, total.................... +0.6 +7.9 +0.2 +6.1 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... 0.0 +7.3 +1.2 +7.4 Retail .................................. +0.7 +7.5 +0.1 +5.6 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +2.7 +9.6 -3.0 +2.0 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... +2.8 +9.9 -3.1 +1.7 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -0.4 +12.3 +1.1 +8.9 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +0.5 +12.3 +0.2 +11.6 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 0.0 +14.7 -1.0 +8.6 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -0.5 +3.7 +2.1 +4.1 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -0.8 +2.7 +2.0 +3.4 446 Health & personal care stores.................... -1.2 +5.3 +0.5 +7.3 447 Gasoline stations................................ -0.1 +2.2 +2.8 +6.2 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +0.4 +9.6 +2.1 +7.1 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -1.2 +2.1 +1.4 +1.8 452 General merchandise stores....................... +1.3 +7.2 +1.2 +8.5 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +1.2 +0.7 +0.7 0.0 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -1.4 +4.3 +1.3 +3.4 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -0.2 +5.6 +0.3 +9.3 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.1 +10.9 +1.4 +10.9 Data not adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday, trading-day differences, and price changes. (Percent Change) Feb Jan 2004 2004 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jan Feb Dec Jan Code 2004 2003 2003 2003 Prel. Final Final Final Retail & food Services, total.................... 0.0 +9.9 -20.9 +6.2 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -2.0 +10.0 -23.9 +7.8 Retail .................................. +0.1 +9.5 -22.4 +5.5 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +7.1 +9.7 -8.3 +1.0 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ +7.6 +9.8 -8.5 +0.7 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -1.5 +14.0 -22.9 +9.2 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -4.0 +14.8 -41.5 +11.2 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -1.7 +15.6 -11.9 +6.7 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -6.4 +6.7 -7.6 +5.1 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -7.3 +5.6 -3.2 +4.6 446 Health & personal care stores.................... -5.2 +6.9 -12.8 +7.1 447 Gasoline stations................................ -2.9 +5.3 +1.8 +6.7 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +12.1 +13.1 -56.1 +9.0 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -17.4 +4.0 -46.7 +3.3 452 General merchandise stores....................... +4.7 +11.9 -42.9 +9.4 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +7.5 +4.5 -54.5 -0.1 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -0.9 +5.3 -26.0 +3.3 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -7.5 +7.6 -18.2 +8.0 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -0.1 +14.3 -4.2 +12.6 (NA) Not Available. SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--FEBRUARY 2004 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 763-2713.
Source of Data: The Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey each month to provide an early indication of sales of retail and food service companies. The Advance Monthly Retail Survey is a voluntary survey of a sub-sample of about 5,000 firms selected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey. Firms responding to this survey account for approximately 65% of the dollar volume estimate. Reliability of Estimates: The reliability of the estimates is a function of sampling and nonsampling errors. The margin of sampling error, as included on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is a 90% confidence interval. If, for example, the trend estimate is +1.2% and the standard error is 0.9%, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9% or ±1.5%, and the 90% confidence interval is -0.3% to +2.7%. If the interval contains 0, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. For monthly level, the coefficient of variation (CV) is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ± 1.65 x CV x (the estimated value). Estimates of sampling variability are given in Table 3. Nonsampling error, on the other hand, can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, and response errors. Although not directly measured, precautionary steps are taken to minimize nonsampling error. Additional survey information is available at www.census.gov/retail.
(2) Medians are based on estimates from the 12 most recent months.
4th Quarter 2003 Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Service Sector Statistics Division
