 | Erin: Welcome to T2A chat as we take a closer look at U.S. – Latin America relations. We are talking with an expert on the region, Abe Lowenthal. He is Professor of International Relations at the University of Southern California. He is co-editor, The Obama Administration and the Americas: Agenda for Change (Brookings Institution Press, 2009). We're talking as the Summit of the Americas prepares to get underway in Trinidad. Challenges facing the region include efforts to control drug trafficking,to develop economic integration and to manage migration. We’ll take a closer look at this, along with focus on Mexico, Venezuela and Cuba. ------------------------------- Erin: Discuss the threat of the international economic crisis on the hemisphere and its fiscal health? Abe: The international economic crisis obviously has a major affect on the countries of the Western Hemisphere as it has throughout the world, but it differs. The strongest effect is in the countries most integrated with the U.S. economically and demographically, Mexico and the countries of Central America and the Caribbean. These countries are very severely affected by what's happened to the U.S. economy in 3 areas: exports to the U.S. are declining as U.S. consumers are cutting back on their expenditures. 2. Tourism is declining, with the numbers of tourists not down as rapidly yet but the expenditures by tourists on a daily basis have declined sharply and these tourist industry, particularly in the Caribbean, has been trying to maintain the number of tourists coming in by offering bargain prices. This is great for the tourists but bad for the local economy. Finay, the remittances by people from the region who are living and working in the U.S. and sending money back to their families back home have begun to decline and in some countries, that's really a major issue. In El Salvador for example, remittances amount to a very substantial contribution to national income and the fallen remittances is already having a severe impact on the economy. In South America, the countries have been a little more cushioned due to the diversity of their economic relationships but as the economic crisis has spread globally, now imports are down in Europe and in China. Some of the commodity exports from Brazil, Chile and Peru, the quantities have gone down and the prices has declined so there's even an effect there. ------------------------------- Erin: Talk about prospects for U.S. policy toward Cuba, Venezuela and Bolivia under the Obama Administration. Abe: Certainly an important question is how the Obama Administration will approach U.S. policy towards Cuba, Venezuela and Bolivia, and what the prospects are for changes in the relationship between the U.S. and those 3 countries. The first step for analyzing that question is to understand that Cuba policy has been in a special category, different from policy toward Venezuela, Bolivia or the rest of the region. Policy toward Cuba has been remarkably consistent for 50 years, even though virtually every aspect of the international situation has changed. The Cold War is over, the Soviet Union no longer exists, the U.S. has developed close relations with China, we negotiate with North Korea, we have established cooperative relations with Libya, we are now talking with Iran -- but policy toward Cuba has essentially been a policy of denial in both senses of that word, substantive and psychological. The only way to explain that paradox, it seems to me, is a combination of two factors: first a lag in mindsets and conceptual approaches, and second the strong control of U.S. policy toward Cuba by a well-placed fraction of the Cuban-American community, largely clustered in southern Florida and New Jersey. These factors and particularly the crucial importance of Florida as a decisive state for the Electoral College, and the importance of the Cuban-American vote in determining electoral outcomes in Florida have largely shaped U.S. policies for many years and especially in Republican administrations. With the 2008 elections, and the arrival in the White House of President Obama and his new team, I think we see at least the beginning of the end of the longstanding U.S. approach to Cuba. This is both because President Obama personally and a number of his advisers have a different mindset about the world in general and about the utility of communication and negotiation - but also and importantly, because of the changing electoral situation in Florida, which President Obama carried, and where the detailed results showed decreasing loyalty by the Cuban-American community to the Republican candidacies, and an increase in the participation of other hispanic voters who largely favored Mr. Obama. An additional and important factor beyond these internal changes and the important changes in the international context are the generational changes occurring both in Cuba and in the Cuban-American community. It is true that the Castro brothers are still in control in Havana, but their generation is surely reaching the end of its time. Similarly, in the United States, the original and powerful Cuban-American group who left the island because of Castro is fading from the scene and the new generation of Cuban-Americans born in this country, as well as the more recent immigrants from Cuba who have come in the last 15 years, have different attitudes about U.S. - Cuba reconciliation. All of this is background for the initial steps taken by the Obama Administration which include reversing the hardening of sanctions that had occurred under the George W. Bush Administration, opening the way for freer travel by Cuban-Americans and expanded transfer of dollars by Cuban-Americans to their relatives on the island, as well as a loosening of restrictions on the export of communications equipment and activities to improve the infrastructure for communication. A second important step taken by the Administration which has not received as much attention as I think it should was the indictment last week of Sr. Posada, who has boasted of his role in blowing up a Cuban airliner some years ago with the loss of 87 lives, as I recall. Mr. Posada has had some legal difficulties in the U.S. because of visa problems but previuos Administrations have not pursued the case against him for terrorist activities, despite all the attention we have been paying to terrorism since 2001. I think the indictment of Sr. Posada, whatever the outcome of the judicial process, is an important sign of change. My expectation is that President Obama will use the Summit of the Americas and particularly informal conversations there to make it clear that the aim of U.S. policy is no longer focused on changing the regime or the leadership in Havana, but rather on increasing the likelihood that Cubans resident on the island can shape their own future and expanding the prospect for cooperation with Cuba on shared interests and challenges. This would be an important change in U.S. policy, a welcome change, in my view. Of course, exactly what happens will depend in part on Cuba's own policy, but it is important not to let U.S. policy be dictated by the Cuban government. ------------------------------- Erin: What about illegal drug trafficking and the U.S. / Mexico relationship..how do you see efforts to control demand and stop trade? Where do you see immigration reform efforts going and what are the factors complicating them? Abe: In my mind one of the most encouraging aspects of the new Administration has been a remarkably rapid change in the U.S. approach to dealing with Mexico. This will be evident in President Obama's trip to Mexico Thursday, but it's important to note that he also met with the President of Mexico in his (Mr. Obama's) period as President-elect when he moved to Washington. President Calderon was the only foreign leader with whom he met during that period. Secretary of State Clinton, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the Attorney General and the head of Homeland Security have all visited Mexico in the first 85 days of the Obama Administration. These visits are not simply symbolic. They have been quite substantive. Sec. of State Clinton took the opportunity of her visit to Mexico to make it clear that she and the Administration understand that the difficult problem of the drug trade and the violence which Mexico experiences are partly the result of causes in the United States. The continuing demand for drugs in our country and the flow of weapons from U.S. gun dealers across the border to Mexico. Acknowledging that U.S. is one of the sources of the problem implies a willingness on the part of the U.S. to help more in addressing these problems as part of an overall program of cooperation with Mexico. And I think we have seen very important steps taken in this direction in just a few weeks. The appointment to head the Drug Enforcement Administration of the former police chief of Seattle who has long emphasized demand reduction through treatment, rehabilitation and public education as the most important way to combat drugs is a very important step. The fact that officials of the new Administration have declined to use language about the so-called failed state in Mexico shows that they are sensitive to the realities and also concerned to build cooperative relations. The appointment of a number of key personnel has been encouraging. Most recently the naming of Alan Bersin, the experienced former U.S. Attorney for San Diego and an authority on both law enforcement and the border region, but also on education and social issues, to coordinate U.S. policy in the border region is another important step. What will be needed further to help address the U.S. - Mexico relationship will be a real attempt by the Obama Administration and Congress to fix our broken immigration laws and system. This will not be easy but I am encouraged by reports that the Administration plans to introduce immigration reform proposals. I think the time has come to recognize that when there is a disjuncture between how the labor market works and how family dynamics work on the one hand, and the law on the other, it is the law that has to change. To take into account the forces of the market and of families, to take into account the contribution of longterm residents of the U.S. and to establish the rule of law on the basis of more realistic provisions and enforcement of them. ------------------------------- Erin: Thank you Professor Lowenthal. Abe Lowenthal is Professor of International Relations at the University of Southern California. He is co-editor, Constructing Democratic Governance: Latin America in the Mid-1990s. We hope you can come back Wednesday, April 22 at 1800 utc, as we mark Earth Day. We will meet an expert on efforts to preserve the planet. David Monsma directs the Energy and Environment Program at The Aspen Institute in Washington, D.C. That’s Wednesday, April 22 at 1800 utc right here on voanews.com See you then!
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