The Hospital Surge Model estimates the hospital resources needed to treat casualties
arising from biological (anthrax, smallpox, pandemic flu), chemical (chlorine, sulfur
mustard, or sarin), nuclear (1 KT or 10 KT explosion), or radiological (dispersion
device or point source) attacks.
When you run the Hospital Surge Model, you select one of the above scenarios and
specify the number of casualties you want to assume need to be treated in your hospital(s).
The casualties are treated, as necessary, in the Emergency Department (ED), in the
ICU, or on the floor. The hospital provides a standard level of care to all casualties.
The Hospital Surge Model estimates:
- the number of casualties arriving at the hospital,
by arrival condition (e.g., mild or severe symptoms) and day;
- the number of casualties in the hospital, by unit (ED, ICU, or floor) and day;
- the cumulative number of dead or discharged casualties, by day; and
- the required hospital resources (personnel,
equipment, and supplies) to treat casualties, by unit and day
Funding and leadership to support Hospital Surge Model was provided by the U.S. Department
of Health and Human Services' Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response
through an Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality contract. Abt Associates,
Weill Cornell Medical College, and
Gryphon Scientific developed the model. A
Steering Committee helped guide
the project and the MIDAS group provided data
for the pandemic flu scenario. For additional information on the Hospital Surge Model,
contact Tom Rich at
Abt Associates or Sally Phillips at AHRQ. For technical
support in using this web site, contact Tom Rich
at Abt Associates. A description of the model and a user manual are also available.
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