USGS National Wetlands Research Center: Jim Grace profile

James B. Grace, Ph.D.

James B. Grace, Ph.D. 1980. Michigan State University. Complex systems analysis and modeling.

Grace's efforts emphasize the study of complex interrelationships in natural systems. This focus has grown out of the recognition that the study of systems (as opposed to individual processes) requires methods that are quite different from the time-honored procedures recommended for statistical analyses (such as ANOVA and multiple regression). In brief, if we are to understand and predict the behavior of systems, we need to develop and evaluate multivariate hypotheses. One approach to the evaluation of multivariate hypotheses involves the use of structural equation modeling (SEM).

While SEM holds great promise for the study of natural systems, there are a number of capabilities of the method that are currently underdeveloped. Grace and his collaborators have been working on several fronts to advance the capabilities and use of SEM, including to (1) develop procedures for including complex variables in structural equation models, (2) develop meta-modeling techniques for generalizing SEM results. (3) integrate the Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures using in modern Bayesian analysis with SEM, and (4) collaborate with other researchers so as to expand the utility of SEM for the natural sciences.

The list of publications below gives an indication of the range of applications we have found for SEM so far. In addition to developing methodologies, topics of current emphasis include global climate change effects, especially the effects of sea level rise on coastal marshes (http://biology.usgs.gov/ecosystems/persistence.html), on restoration of the Great Basin, working collaboratively with the SageSTEP group (http://www.sagestep.org), and with the National Park Service on integrative ways of learning and informing management from their long-term Vital Signs Program (http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/index.cfm).

Select Publications:

The following is only a list of recent publications (plus books published previously). For a complete list of publications, see Grace Publication List (PDF, 57 KB). For assistance with obtaining reprints, please contact the NWRC Library.

Oberle, B., Grace, J.B., Chase, J. accepted pending minor revisions. Energy-species richness relationships in temperate forests: Effects of plant growth form. Global Ecology and Biogeography
Chaudhary, V.B., Bowker, M.A., O’Dell, T.E., Grace, J.B., Redman, A.E., Rillig, M.C., and Johnson, N.C. in press. Untangling the biological contributions to soil stability in semi-arid shrublands. Ecological Applications.
Youngblood, A., Grace, J.B., and McIver, J.D. 2009. Delayed conifer mortality after fuel reduction treatments: Interactive effects of fuels, fire intensity, and bark beetles. Ecological Applications, Special Feature (in press)
Cherry, J.A., McKee, K.L., and Grace, J.B. 2009. Elevated CO2 enhances biological contributions to elevation change in coastal wetlands by offsetting stressors associated with sea-level rise. Journal of Ecology 97:67-77.
Grace, J.B. and Zouhar, K. in press. Fire and nonnative invasive plants in the central bioregion. In: Zouhar, K., Smith, J.K., Sutherland, S., and Brooks, M.L (eds.) Wildland Fire in Ecosystems: Fire and Nonnative Invasive Plants, Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-42-volume 6. Ogden, UT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station.
Larson, D.L., Grace, J.B., and Larson, J.L. 2008. Long-term dynamics of leafy spurge (Euphorbia esula) and its biocontrol agent, the flea beetle Aphthona lacertosa. Biological Control DOI 10.1016/j.biocontrol.2008.07.016
Collins, S.L., Suding, K.N., Cleland, E.E., Batty, M., Pennings, S.C., Gross, K.L., Grace, J.B. Gough, L., Fargione, J.E., Clark, C.M. 2008. Rank clocks and community dynamics. Ecology 89:3534-3541.
Grace, J.B., Youngblood, A., and Scheiner, S.M. 2008. Structural equation modeling and ecological experiments. Chapter 2, pp. 19-46. In: Miao, S., Carstenn, S., and Nungesser, M. (Eds.) Real World Ecology: Large-Scale and Long-Term Case Studies and Methods. Springer Verlag, New York.
Grace, J.B., Carstenn, S., Miao, S., and Sinhoj, E., 2008. Ecology in the real world, how might we progress? Chapter 12, pp. 293-302. In: Miao, S., Carstenn, S., and Nungesser, M. (Eds.) Real World Ecology: Large-Scale and Long-Term Case Studies and Methods. Springer Verlag, New York.
Harrison, S., Viers, J.H., Thorne, J.H. and Grace, J.B. 2008. Favorable environments and the persistence of naturally rare species. Conservation Letters (in press)
Riginos, C. and Grace, J.B. 2008. Savanna tree density, herbivores, and the herbaceous community: bottom-up versus top-down effects. Ecology (in press)
Ewing, R., Bartholomew, K., Winkelman, S., Walters, J., Chen, D., Anderson, G., Grace, J.B., McCann, B., and Goldberg, D. 2008. Growing Cooler: The Evidence on Urban Development and Climate Change. Urban Land Institute, Washington, DC.
Grace, J.B. 2008. Structural equation modeling for observational studies. Journal of Wildlife Management 72:14-22.
Grace, J.B. and Bollen, KA. 2008. Representing general theoretical concepts in structural equation models: the role of composite variables. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 15:191-213.
Drake, J.M., Cleland, E.E., Horner-Devine, M.C., Fleishman, E., Bowles, C., Smith, M.D., Carney, K., Emery, S., Gramling, J., Vandermast, D.B., and Grace, J.B. 2008. Do non-native plant species affect the shape of productivity-diversity relationships? American Midland Naturalist. 159:55-66.
Siemann, E., Rogers, W.E. and Grace, J.B. 2007. Effects of nutrient loading and extreme rainfall events on coastal tallgrass prairies: invasion intensity, vegetation responses, and carbon and nitrogen distribution. Global Change Biology 13:2184-2192.
Nettle, D., Grace, J.B., Choisy, M., Cornell, H.V., Guegan, J.F., and Hochberg, M.E. 2007. Cultural diversity, economic development and societal instability. PLoS ONE 2(9): e929. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0000929.
Clark, C, Cleland, E, Fargione, J.E., Gough, L., Gross, K.L., Pennings, S.C., Suding, K.N. and Grace, JB. 2007. Environmental and plant community determinants of species loss following nitrogen enrichment. Ecology Letters. 10:596-607.
Owens, A, Proffitt, E, and Grace, JB. 2007. Prescribed fire and cutting as tools for managing woody plant succession in a created salt marsh. Wetlands Ecology and Management. 15:405-416.
Grace, J.B., Anderson, T.M., Smith, M., Seabloom, E., Andelman, S., Meche, G., Weiher, E., Allain, L.K., Jutila, H., Sankaran, M., Harpole, W.S., Knops, J., Ritchie, M.E. and Willig, M.R. 2007. Does species diversity limit productivity in natural grassland communities. Ecology Letters. Ecology Letters. 10:680-689.
Anderson, T.M., Ritchie, M.E., Mayemba, E., Eby, S., Grace, J.B., and McNaughton, S.J. 2007. Forage nutritive quality in the Serengeti ecosystem: the roles of fire and hervbivory. American Naturalist. 170:343-357.
Grace, J.B., Safford, H., and Harrison, S. 2007. Large-scale causes of variation in the serpentine vegetation of California. Plant and Soil. DOI 10.1007/s11104-007-9196-6].
Harrison, S. and Grace, JB. 2007. Biogeographic affinity contributes to our understanding of productivity-richness relationships at regional and local scales. American Naturalist 170:S5-S15.
Laughlin, D.C., Abella, S.R., Covington, W.W., Fulé, P., and Grace, J.B. 2007. A structural equation modeling analysis of plant species richness and soil properties in a ponderosa pine forest ecosystem. Journal of Vegetation Science 18:231-242.
Larson, D.L., Grace, J.B., Rabie, P.A., and Andersen, P. 2007. Short-term disruption of a leafy spurge (Euphorbia esula) biocontrol program following herbicide application. Biological Control 40:1-8.
Baldwin, H.Q., Grace, J.B., Barrow, W., Rohwer, F.C. 2007. Association of overwintering grassland birds with time since burn and vegetation characteristics in coastal tallgrass prairie. Wilson Journal of Ornithology 119:188-196.
Drake, D.L., Altig, R., Grace, J.B. and Walls, S.C. 2007. Occurrence of oral defects in larval anurans from protected sites. Copeia 2007(2):449-458.
Grace, J.B. and Bollen, K.A. 2006. The Interface between Theory and Data in Structural Equation Models. USGS Open-File Report 2006-1363. 37 p.
Grace, J.B. 2006. Structural Equation Modeling and Natural Systems. Cambridge University Press. 365 p.
Lichtenberg, J.S., King, S.L., Grace, J.B., and Walls, S. 2006. Habitat associations of chorusing anurans in the lower Mississippi river alluvial valley. Wetlands 26:736-744.
Laughlin, D.C. and Grace, J.B. 2006. A multivariate model of plant species richness in forested systems: old-growth montane forests with a long history of fire. Oikos 114:60-70.
Whitbeck, M. and Grace, J.B. 2006. Estimating biomass in marshes of the upper Texas coast. Wetlands 26:278-282.
Harrison, S., Grace, J.B. Davies, K.F., Safford, H.D., and Viers, J.H. 2006. Exotic invasion in a diversity hotspot: disentangling the direct and indirect relationships of exotic cover to native richness in the californian serpentine flora. Ecology 87:695-703.
Harrison, S., Safford, H.D. Grace, J.B. Viers, J.H. and Davies, K.F. 2006. Regional and local species richness in an insular environment: Serpentine plants in California. Ecological Monographs 76:41-56.
Grace, JB and Keeley, JE. 2006. A structural equation model analysis of postfire plant diversity in California shrublands. Ecological Applications 16:503-514.
Allain, L., Smith, L, Allen, C. Vidrine, M.F. and Grace, J.B. 2006. A floristic quality assessment system for the coastal prairie of Louisiana. Proceedings of The 19th North American Prairie Conference, pp. 1-18.

Books Published Previously:

McCune, B. and J.B. Grace. 2002. Analysis of Ecological Communities. MJM Press, 302 pages.
Grace, J.B. and D. Tilman (eds.) 1990. Perspectives in Plant Competition. Academic Press, New York. 484 pages.

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