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A $37 billion deficit is estimated for May, $11 billion lower than the deficit reported for the same month one year ago largely because of calendar quirks. The results through May are consistent with CBO's estimate last month that the fiscal year will end with a total surplus in the range of $43 billion to $63 billion. Excluding the more than $100 billion surplus estimated for off-budget items (Social Security and the Postal Service), the government's on-budget activities would show a deficit on the order of $41 billion to $59 billion.
 

The April surplus of $124.6 billion was $1.6 billion above CBO's estimate for the month, within the typical $2 billion error range for monthly estimates.
 

May receipts are estimated to be only $1 billion higher than a year ago, largely because the month contained one less tax collection day this year. Outlays also are expected to be about $10 billion lower than were recorded for May 1997, largely because of calendar quirks. Last year, June 1 fell on a weekend, so about $8 billion in June payments for military pay and various benefits were made at the end of May. As a result, the estimated deficit of $37 billion for May 1998 is $11 billion lower than a year ago.
 

Receipts for the first eight months of the fiscal year are up $103 billion over the amount collected last year for the same period, while outlays are up by only $20 billion. The cumulative net result for October through May is expected to be a surplus of $17 billion, an $83 billion improvement over the comparable result last year.
 

Receipts through May are up 10.1 percent over the comparable eight-month period one year ago. This year-over-year growth rate is down from the 11.0 percent rate reported last month for receipts through April because May 1998 receipts are estimated to be little changed from May 1997 receipts.

Withheld income and employment tax collections continued to be strong in May. Though they were up by only 5.9 percent over the same month last year, the increase would have been higher if there had been the same number of collection days this year.

Overall, estimated May receipts are consistent with CBO's expected range of $1,705 billion to $1,715 billion for the fiscal year.
 

The relatively low outlay growth of 1.9 percent through May is partly the result of the calendar. As noted earlier, outlays in May 1997 were boosted by roughly $8 billion because June 1, 1997, fell on a weekend. Adjusting for that calendar effect, outlays through May 1998 are up 2.6 percent over last year. Outlays for the fiscal year are expected to be on the order of 3.2 percent to 3.8 percent above last year's level.
 

The OMB Mid-Session Review issued on May 26, 1998, projects a total surplus of $39 billion for the fiscal year, slightly below CBO's expected range of $43 billion to $63 billion. The total budget includes the Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service, which are treated as off-budget items. Excluding the more than $100 billion surplus in the off-budget items, the remaining on-budget component would show a deficit on the order of $41 billion to $59 billion under CBO's May estimates and $63 billion under OMB's estimates.