Skip Navigation

A surplus of $22 billion is estimated for January, which would reduce the deficit for the first four months of the fiscal year to $28 billion below last year's comparable level. If revenue growth continues to be strong, a surplus is likely to result for the fiscal year.
 

• The December surplus of $13.6 billion was very close to CBO's estimate of $13.7 billion for the month.
  
  
• A surplus of $22 billion is estimated for January based on the Daily Treasury Statements. Receipts will be relatively high because of quarterly estimated individual income tax collections, while outlays will be unaffected by calendar quirks.
  
  
• The range of error around the CBO estimates of a monthly deficit or surplus is about $2 billion, based on past experience. This means that the actual surplus that will be reported later this month by the Treasury should be somewhere between $20 billion and $24 billion.

• Receipts for the first four months of the fiscal year are estimated to be up 10 percent over the amount collected a year ago, reflecting the continuing strong growth in the economy.
  
  
• Outlays for the first four months are estimated to be 4 percent above last year's level, resulting in a cumulative deficit that is $28 billion below the level recorded a year ago.

• Despite one less working day this year, receipts in January are estimated to be up nearly $12 billion from last year's collections for the month. For the year to date, receipts are up nearly $51 billion over last year's pace.
  
  
• January receipts are boosted by nonwithheld individual income tax payments. Total individual income tax collections through January are estimated to be up 10.5 percent over last year's pace.

• Outlays through January are estimated to be 4.1 percent above last year's level for the same period, which is consistent with CBO's 4.3 percent growth estimate for the fiscal year.
  
  
• About $8 billion of January payments were made in December because January 1 was a holiday, but an equal amount of outlays was shifted from February to January because February 1 was a Sunday, another non-working day.

• The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) estimates a deficit of $10 billion for fiscal year 1998, nearly $5 billion higher than CBO's January estimate. OMB's higher deficit estimate is largely because of a lower estimate of receipts.
  
  
• If revenue growth over last year continues to be strong, CBO's higher receipt estimate is likely to be exceeded, and a surplus for the year could result.
  
  
• The historical track record for CBO and OMB at this point in the fiscal year shows that estimates for total receipts and outlays could each be off the mark by 2 percent. If the estimating errors are not offset, the final budgetary outcome could be different by tens of billions of dollars.