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The Economics of Climate Change: A Primer |
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April 2003 |
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Note
Cover photo courtesy of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
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A scientific consensus is emerging that rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are gradually changing the Earth's climate, although the magnitude, timing, and effects of the alteration remain very uncertain. The prospect of long-term climate change raises a variety of domestic and international economic policy issues on which there is little accord. Considerable disagreement exists about whether to control greenhouse gas emissions,
and if so, how and by how much; and whether to coordinate climate-related
polices at the international level, and if so, through what mechanisms.
This Congressional Budget Office (CBO) study--prepared at the request
of the Ranking Member of the House Committee on Science--presents an overview
of issues related to climate change, focusing primarily on its economic
aspects. The study draws from numerous published sources to summarize the
current state of climate science and provide a conceptual framework for
addressing climate change as an economic problem. It also examines public
policy options and discusses the potential complications and benefits of
international coordination. In keeping with CBO's mandate to provide impartial
analysis, the study makes no recommendations.
Robert Shackleton of CBO's Macroeconomic Analysis Division wrote the
study. CBO staff members Robert Dennis, Terry Dinan, Douglas Hamilton,
Roger Hitchner, Arlene Holen, Kim Kowalewski, Mark Lasky, Deborah Lucas,
David Moore, John Sturrock, Natalie Tawil, and Thomas Woodward provided
valuable comments and assistance, as did Henry Jacoby of the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology and Thomas Schelling of the University of Maryland
at College Park. The comments of Chris Webster and John Reilly of the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology and Mort Webster of the University of North Carolina
at Chapel Hill were particularly helpful in developing the discussion of
uncertainty.
Leah Mazade edited the study, and Christine Bogusz proofread it. Kathryn
Winstead prepared the study for publication, and Annette Kalicki produced
the electronic versions for CBO's Web site.
Douglas Holtz-Eakin
Director
April 2003
Figures |
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1. |
The Atmospheric Energy Budget and the Greenhouse Effect |
2. |
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature |
3. |
The Carbon Cycle |
4. |
Uncertainty in Projections of Regional Population and Economic Growth |
5. |
Uncertainty in Projections of Regional Carbon Dioxide Emissions
and Emissions Intensity |
6. |
Range of Uncertainty in Economic and Carbon Dioxide Emissions Projections |
7. |
Historical and Projected Climate Change |
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Boxes |
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1. |
Discounting and the Distant Future |
2. |
An Example of Integrated Assessment |
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