National Weather Service
Professional Development Series
Professional Competency Unit


Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting

PCU 1: Assessing Climatology Data to Determine the Likelihood of Precipitation

Producer: TBD


Description of Job Duty Competency to be Achieved

Develop knowledge of regional and local climatology to define the type(s) and magnitude of precipitation expected during different seasons.


Description of Need

Forecasters need to understand the seasonal and diurnal variation of the magnitude and types of precipitation expected in their area of forecast responsibility. A complete set of geophysical and climatological information should be available to describe the local and regional effects upon the frequency, magnitude, and seasonal variation of precipitation.


Specific Job Task Skills and Knowledge

 

1.Understand the seasonal variability of precipitation over the region of interest and its relationship to orography and synoptic flow regime

2.Understand the synoptic, mesoscale, and local forcing associated with extreme precipitation events over the region of interest.

3.Use climatological knowledge to assist real time precipitation forecasting.

4.Create and/or employ an easily accessible database of climatological data for forecaster reference.

 


Instructional Components

Instructional Component 1.1: Precipitation Climatology Database.Develop and/or access a climatological precipitation database that illustrates the precipitation variability and extremes in the region of interest.This should include information about the probability of precipitation amount and type as a function of the time of day, month and season.

Instructional Component 1.2: Case Studies.Local case studies of extreme events, which include a detailed description of the synoptic, mesoscale, and local effects upon the storm.

Instructional Component 1.3: Station-led Training.Geographically similar groups of field offices and others should work together to share information and highlight potential/local issues.

Instructional Component 1.4: Bibliography. An on-line bibliography of various precipitation-related reports could be provided.


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Last reviewed or updated on 09/25/01