FXUS64 KHGX 092347
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
647 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009
.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES MADE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING
SUPPORT MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT TOO. EVERYTHING SHOULD
LIFT AND BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGHOUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  42 
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009/ 
DISCUSSION...
THE FLOW OVER SE TX WAS BASICALLY WESTERLY WITH A SLIGHT SLANT
TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS WAS DUE TO THE MID LEVEL HIGH OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH WAS CAUSING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER N AND
E TX. THIS FACT WILL HELP KEEP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES UNDER
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS TONIGHT AND UNDER THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE LARGEST CAP WILL REMAIN OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT. BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY 
NIGHT THE CAP WILL ERODE TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE SAGS SOUTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER AREA
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NUDGES NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE GULF. THE NAM
WAS A BIT WETTER AND COOLER THAN THE GFS. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WENT WITH MORE OF A BLEND THAT LEANED TOWARD THE
NAM. THUS...KEPT MAINLY ISOLATED POPS IN PLACE WITH SCATTERED POPS
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN SET OF COUNTIES. MONDAY WAS A BIT TOUGHER.
THE MODELS KEEP PUSHING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO SE
TX...BUT AT THE SAME TIME LOWER THE QPF FIELDS. DECIDED TO LOWER
THE POPS TO 20 PERCENT SINCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE BOUNDARY LOCATION.
LATER NEXT WEEK THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST ALOFT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND THE BAJA. OTHER THAN
THURSDAY...A DRYING TREND IS IN STORE AFTER MONDAY NIGHT.
40
MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE SITUATED IN THE EASTERN GULF AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS. WINDS MIGHT INCREASE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  90  72  88  70 /  10  20  20  20  20 
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  89  72  88  71 /  10  20  10  20  20 
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  84  75  85  76 /  10  10  10  10  10 
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR 
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA 
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO 
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...37
AVIATION/MARINE...42