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CIA Home > Library > Center for the Study of Intelligence > Studies Archive Indexes > Documents > Bayesian Analysis for Intelligence: Some Focus on the Middle East

Bayesian Analysis for Intelligence: Some Focus on the Middle East

~~SECRET~~		**Bayesian Analysis**

	probabilities. It has been our experience that some people think easily in probabilities, others have to work at it every time, and a few need constant attention and retraining to overcome a distorted or unrealistic feeling for probabilities. The only solution for this problem, aside from a careful initial choice and subsequent replacement, is constant attention to the analysts' assessments and frequent retraining using illustrative items of evidence.

	Manipulation--Finally, there is the problem of conscious manipulation. An analyst may assign his probabilities in a manner which reflects a pre-determined goal rather than unbiased judgment. Although we have found this to be quite rare, nevertheless it does occur. In our early studies, the participants were identified with the Bayesian trend lines, and there were occasions of manipulation. Avoiding disciplinary solutions, we have almost entirely circumvented the problem by identifying the participants on the supplementary intuitive graphs and not on the Bayesian charts. This allows them to express strongly-held personal opinions in a forum designed for that purpose, and the methodological purity of the Bayesian calculations is increased greatly.


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Posted: May 08, 2007 08:46 AM

Last Updated: May 08, 2007 08:46 AM

Last Reviewed: May 08, 2007 08:46 AM