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The Case for a Holistic Intelligence
CONFIDENTIAL |
Holistic Intelligence
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| The "building block" phase of research involves the accumulation, sorting, and organization of the vast amounts of information received which pertain to matters of intelligence concern. It produces the underlying studies that constitute the basis for subsequent, broader-gauged analysis intended to answer specific intelligence questions. Because its focus is on the organization of informational fragments, the "building block" phase of research lends itself-indeed, requires-a microscopic approach taken from the point of view of individual aspects or disciplines if it is to be done efficiently and with sophistication. Such research is an indispensable continuing intelligence function. The need to perform it, however, differs in degree in various problem fields and geographical regions. Much of the crucial information needed for analysis is frequently unavailable to the intelligence analyst. Therefore, the sifting, weighing, piecing, and structuring of bits and fragments of available information on a particular problem is indispensable if the analyst is eventually to have any foundation upon which to make intermediate-level analysis and intelligence estimates.1 |
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| CIA's work over the years in developing "building block" analyses on a country and problem basis has been and remains impressive. The work, for example, begun in the 1950s and extending into the early 1960s on the Soviet and East European economies, political systems, scientific and technical efforts, and weaponry development attest to this excellent performance. More specifically, the numerous research aids produced in the Office of Scientific Intelligence (OSI) in the 1950s on the Soviet Academy of Sciences, its departments, their structure, staff, and research plans, the status of various fields of Soviet science and engineering were indispensable first steps in the structuring of a meaningful data base upon which later more sophisticated assessments of Soviet achievements and prospects for development in various scientific fields and in weaponry were made. Likewise, the pioneering "building block" analyses of the quantity, types of specializations, and quality of Soviet and East European scientific and technical manpower were carried out in OSI through a number of highly specialized studies. Similarly, the research in the 1950s and early 1960s on the Soviet Bloc economies provided the foundations for later more sophisticated economic intelligence analyses. There is, however, somewhat less need now for such work in many problem areas of the USSR and East European countries because both raw data and finished intelligence have been built up to substantial levels, though undoubtedly new problems will continue to arise demanding that such basic research be undertaken. In contrast, "building block" research will continue to be indispensable to intelligence analysis on Communist China across a broad spectrum of problems for several years. |
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| On the intermediate level of analysis, the objective is to aggregate and synthesize the material developed in various "building block" studies to produce interpretative and predictive intelligence analyses. The monodisciplinary microscopic approach that is so important for "building block" research has had, and continues to have, an unfavorable influence upon the analysis work at the intermediate level in two major respects. First, multidimensional problems are approached too narrowly; i.e., they are not considered from all relevant aspects. Second, too little attention has been given to spelling out exactly how the analysis undertaken will lead to the answers sought and how underlying assumptions or uncertainties must qualify the results. A review of prefaces and introductions to |
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| 1it is in this "building block" phase of research that the analysts in the Central Reference Service frequently make crucially important but frequently unheralded contributions. |
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CONFIDENTIAL
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Posted: May 08, 2007 08:43 AM
Last Updated: May 08, 2007 08:43 AM
Last Reviewed: May 08, 2007 08:43 AM
