- Info
The Problem of Chinese Statistics
Chinese tendency toward numerical imprecision,
| Chinese Statistics UNCLASSIFIED |
| |
| 15 and 19.39 The overwhelming majority of the recruits, however, are drawn from the very much larger number of youths who have less than six years of primary school. Furthermore, because the PLA does much of its own training, on balance the army returns more skills to the economy than it siphons from it. |
| |
| 2) Industrial Production. As a general rule, it may be said that Peking has more accurate statistics on heavy industry than on light industry, on centrally controlled industries than on local industries, and on modern industries as opposed to those using primitive technology. Another generalization that usually holds for all categories of industrial statistics is that the greater the number of administrative plateaus which serve as resting places for statistics as they are moved up the line, the less accurate are the figures. The central government still controls the output and transfer balances to and from provinces of major industrial products, so that it should have fairly accurate data on the production of iron and steel, petroleum, the output of the major machine-building industries, and other basic commodities. Undoubtedly it can also account for materials for the armed forces, armament industries, and other priority production which require that requisitions for raw materials continue to be submitted through the appropriate central authorities. On the other hand, because production of most of the small-scale industries has been removed from the centrally planned balances, the central government is likely to have only approximate figures on the production of consumer goods and other products of local significance. There are still other products that fall somewhere in between. Building materials and chemical fertilizers, for example, are produced both at major industrial installations and in relatively small rural enterprises that are supposed to meet local requirements. Fairly accurate statistics from major enterprises are probably adjusted for the inclusion of the production in small factories and workshops. |
| |
| 3) Agricultural Production. Accurate estimates of agricultural production are difficult to come by even at the local level, so that there is little doubt that the central government has large information gaps. Production estimates, particularly of major crops, do rely heavily on sample surveys. The government's main concern is not so much with the total grain production of a particular province as with the delivery of a specified quota for interprovincial transfer or for export. Only very approximate estimates would be available in Peking on the production of produce for local consumption. |
| |
| 4) Transportation. Statistics on transportation fall into two categories: those relating to the modern sector, and those relating to the traditional sector. For obvious reasons, data on the modern sector are among the best in China. The miles of railroad track, of all-weather roads, or of navigable inland waterways can be determined and accurately maintained with relative ease; the inventory and annual production of locomotives, railroad stock, motor vehicles, and large water craft are undoubtedly very accurate. Also well known to Peking is the volume of freight moved by the modern sector-most of it between provinces for domestic distribution or foreign trade, and all of it under the control of the Ministry of Communications. |
| |
| _______________________________ |
| 39 Leo A. Orleans, "China's Science and Technology: Continuity and Innovation," in People's Republic of China: An Economic Assessment, Joint Economic Committee, Washington, 1972, p. 206. |
| |
|
UNCLASSIFIED 61
|
Posted: May 08, 2007 08:35 AM
Last Updated: May 11, 2007 05:44 AM
Last Reviewed: May 08, 2007 08:35 AM
