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The Problem of Chinese Statistics
Chinese tendency toward numerical imprecision,
| Chinese Statistics |
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| Statistics and Planning |
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| Having considered the statistical system, the problems, and the attitudes of the people, the reader must be left puzzled by a major unanswered question: if the statistics in China are really so inadequate, then how does the central government, with its various ministries, agencies, bureaus and other institutions and components, accomplish its essential planning and managerial functions? In the West, where the supply and demand of the free market and the public pressures tend to dictate many of the economic and social policies and decisions, statistics are still considered to be indispensable for almost all decision making. How does a country which presumably has a planned economy manage, for example, to perform such vital functions as the allocation of capital investments, skilled manpower, and other essential resources if the statistical data base is either unavailable or inaccurate? Not as efficiently as it might but, surprisingly, better than one might expect. |
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| The whole subject of planning in China is too complex to be considered here and would take us far beyond the scope of this paper. Nevertheless, some comments on the questions raised above are in order. |
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| In theory, both long- and short-term plans are first formulated by the primary national planning agencies such as the State Planning Commission, the State Economic Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Allocation of Materials, and the State Technical Commission. Farther down the line, plans are made by the various ministries, by the special business bureaus, by provinces, cities and other administrative units, and eventually by the smallest teams and workshops. The effectiveness with which all this planning is being accomplished naturally fluctuates both with policies relating to the statistical system itself and with the other policies and programs affecting the functioning of government administration. At all levels and at all times, however, it has been a most frustrating experience. |
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| Peking has made many planning mistakes that have resulted in major economic problems. Even reasonable plans have often been dislocated by the ever-present (and periodically intensified) political considerations. Furthermore, it is not always easy, even for the Chinese themselves, to know just how good or bad their planning might be, because there is no built-in system for enforcement of planning directives or for checking whether a particular plan has been fulfilled. Expert bargainers, the Chinese utilize an ancient gimmick of setting higher targets in order to insure desired production. The only problem is that these targets are increased at each descending administrative level to make sure that the target passed on from above will be met. By the time the prescribed targets get to the person responsible for the actual production, they may be so unrealistically inflated that even the most enthusiastic cadre could not take them seriously. |
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| Since the Cultural Revolution, there has once again been a trend toward local self-reliance which means that the authority and the responsibility for all activities, including planning, are to be located closer to the source of information. This should certainly increase efficiency for-given the problems of the statistical system-it is clear that the closer the planners and the controllers are to whatever they may be planning or controlling, the easier it is for them to determine what is possible, and then to implement the plans. This does not mean that Peking is out of the planning picture. Of course not. The State and party reins are still held tightly in Peking, whence all the broad policies and directives will continue to emanate, as will the controls over the production and distribution of the basic industrial products of national significance. But balancing the allocation and |
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Posted: May 08, 2007 08:35 AM
Last Updated: May 11, 2007 05:43 AM
Last Reviewed: May 08, 2007 08:35 AM
