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The Prediction of Soviet Intentions
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Soviet Intentions
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| the products of a centuries-old system of absolutist rule; they are far more isolated from Western ideas and experience than even their Tsarist predecessors. Few among those at the top level have traveled widely, much less spent any period of time in the West. Their narrowness is difficult to comprehend. The Czech Communist leaders, returning from Moscow in late 1968, remarked that they had expected narrow dogmatists, but not "vulgar thugs." While that is perhaps too strong, the fact remains that our perception of situations is probably widely divergent from the Kremlin's perception of those same situations. The Soviet Union is a strange and idiosyncratic polity, not to be understood or dealt with without considerable conscious effort. And often even that is not enough. |
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| Another factor complicating our assessment of Soviet intentions is the role of error and irrationality in the Kremlin. No political leadership is immune to mistakes and, indeed, the Soviets have made their share. Just as important, however, is the mental attitude of the leadership. For example, the Soviets, lacking reliable allies, throughout their history have had a certain siege mentality. Moreover, they are clearly concerned about their relative backwardness, a point underlined by Khrushchev's admission of a sense of inferiority over his smaller plane as he flew into Geneva in 1955 and, even now, their continued insistence on dealing on the basis of "equality." Thus, there is the possibility that after analyzing all the facts and alternatives, the Soviet leadership will react out of personal spite, a sense of psychological or cultural inferiority, or fear. |
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| In discussing the vagaries of personality and differences in culture, we have just scratched the surface of the difficulty of predicting Soviet intentions. For example, one invaluable legacy bequeathed by Lenin to his successors was a sense of political expediency and opportunism probably without modern equal. Stalin and his successors were relieved by historical determinism of the need to be concerned about the final victory or defeat of Communism. Their main task has been the survival of the "home of socialism" and the furthering of its interests. For that task, Lenin's legacy was essential, imbuing Soviet internal and foreign intentions with almost unrivalled flexibility-and unpredictability. |
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| Internal Politics | |
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| The changeability of Soviet intentions, foreign and domestic, is a natural product of the internal political process. The Soviet Union, like other countries, is continually beset by minor crises. In that dictatorial, ultra-centralized system, however, the number of these time- and energy-consuming problems demanding the attention of the top leadership is magnified many times. As a result, the Politburo probably can only rarely take the time-and then only some members of it-to reflect on future problems or future opportunities, and then come to a decision on how best to meet a problem or exploit an opportunity. Consequently, it seems likely that few Soviet "intentions" emerge as the result of a conscious attempt to formulate long-range or even middle-range plans_ |
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| Those few intentions which do receive lengthy consideration and require a clear-cut decision by the leadership generally concern large objectives often intimately related to economic or military issues. The difficulty in reaching decisions even on these is well illustrated by the quinquennial travail over the Five Year Plan, Bruising bureaucratic struggles over resource allocation, priorities for various industries, and even the general direction of the Plan-whether to emphasize heavy industry, the consumer, or agriculture-are involved in a preparation process drawn out over months and even years. Yet after a decision is made, the plan is still subject to alteration and modification throughout its |
Posted: May 08, 2007 08:35 AM
Last Updated: May 08, 2007 08:35 AM
Last Reviewed: May 08, 2007 08:35 AM
