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Tropical Storm ELIDA
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
0900 UTC SUN JUL 13 2008
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X 1 5 11 19
TROP DEPRESSION X 2 2 8 26 33 41
TROPICAL STORM 79 59 49 59 58 50 39
HURRICANE 21 39 48 32 12 5 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 20 35 39 26 10 5 1
HUR CAT 2 1 3 7 5 2 X X
HUR CAT 3 X 1 2 2 X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 60KT 65KT 70KT 65KT 55KT 50KT 45KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 16(23) 10(33) 1(34) X(34)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 6(27) 1(28)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
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