Hurricane ELIDA

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HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
200 PM PDT MON JUL 14 2008
 
A RAGGED EYE MADE AN APPEARANCE IN ELIDA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
VISIBLE IMAGERY...THOUGH THE EYE REMAINED HIDDEN IN THE INFRARED. 
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 4.5...OR
ABOUT 75-80 KT.  A 1215Z AMSU PASS SUGGESTED ABOUT 80 KT.  THE ADT
INDICATED A WEAKER SYSTEM OF 65 KT...THOUGH THIS TECHNIQUE MAY
HAVE DIFFICULTIES IN THAT THE EYE WAS NOT APPARENT IN THE INFRARED. 
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT.

A 1313Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY PASS ALONG WITH THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY PROVIDE A MORE CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE
POSITION AND MOTION...THE LATTER OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY 275 DEGREES
AT 9 KT.  ELIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST
AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.   
AFTER THAT...ELIDA SHOULD PROCEED WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
RATE AS IT IS ADVECTED ALONG IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  THE
TRACK FORECAST IS THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...UKMET...AND ECMWF
MODELS...AS THE HWRF HAS A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE NORTH OF ELIDA AND
NOGAPS MAINTAINS TOO LARGE A VORTEX TOO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE GFS MODEL ALSO PORTRAYS A UNREALISTIC-LOOKING FUJIWARA
INTERACTION WITH A SECONDARY VORTICITY LOBE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
ELIDA...SO THIS MODEL TOO IS DOWNPLAYED.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION THROUGH THREE DAYS...BUT
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE EARLIER FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

ELIDA MAY HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.  FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS...A
MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE RATHER
SHARP BOUNDARY IN THE INFRARED CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF ELIDA MAY BE INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASED SHEAR
ABOUT TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON THE CYCLONE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...HRWF...AND GFDL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A TOPEX/POSEIDON SATELLITE PASS AT 15Z ALLOWED FOR ADJUSTMENT...AND
EXPANSION OUTWARD...OF THE 12 FOOT SEAS RADII AS ANALYZED BY TAFB.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 15.8N 109.7W    75 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 16.0N 111.1W    75 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 16.5N 113.0W    70 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 17.1N 115.2W    65 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 17.3N 117.7W    60 KT
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 17.5N 122.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 17.5N 126.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     19/1800Z 17.5N 129.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN
 
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