Tropical Storm ODILE

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TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008

ODILE HAS PRODUCED A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C
THIS EVENING...WITH A JUST-RECEIVED SSM/IS OVERPASS SHOWING THAT
THE CLUSTER IS SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS DECREASING...ALTHOUGH THIS HAS NOT
YET TRANSLATED INTO AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB.  BASED
ON THIS AND THE LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/11...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE
A LITTLE FASTER.  ODILE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BUILD
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF ODILE IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE NORBERT
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE ODILE TO
MAKE A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN...IF IT DOESN'T MAKE LANDFALL AND
DISSIPATE FIRST.  THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND HWRF FAVOR THE LANDFALL
SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS...GFDL...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF KEEP ODILE
OFFSHORE AND TURN IT WESTWARD.  INDEED...THE ECMWF SHOWS A
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE MODELS...SHOWING A MOTION VERY CLOSE
TO THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS...AND A SLOW
WESTWARD MOTION AWAY FROM THE COAST THEREAFTER.  THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST
36-48 HR...AND IT IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE FLORIDA
STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.

IF ODILE DOESN'T DISSIPATE OVER LAND...IT SHOULD REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. 
BETWEEN 24-72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING CYCLONIC
NEAR ODILE AFTER 72 HR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS.  PROXIMITY
TO LAND COULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HR...AND
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THIS
TIME.  AS ODILE MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST...THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS FORECAST IT TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HR...WHILE THE
GFDL DOES NOT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS COMPROMISES WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 KT.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE INCREASING
SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
ODILE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.  HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE IS AS FAR SOUTH
AS FORECAST BY THE ECMWF AFTER 72 HR...IT MAY FIND A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0300Z 15.9N  99.4W    50 KT
 12HR VT     11/1200Z 16.6N 100.5W    55 KT
 24HR VT     12/0000Z 17.3N 102.1W    55 KT
 36HR VT     12/1200Z 17.5N 103.4W    60 KT
 48HR VT     13/0000Z 17.5N 104.4W    60 KT
 72HR VT     14/0000Z 17.5N 106.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     15/0000Z 17.5N 107.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     16/0000Z 17.5N 108.5W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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