Hurricane NORBERT

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HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
 
THE LARGE EYE OF NORBERT MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA AROUND 1630 UTC.  SINCE THAT TIME THE CENTER HAS
TRACKED ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND IT IS NOW EMERGING OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.  EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS
TILTED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED A LITTLE SOUTHWEST OF
THE EYE THAT IS SEEN IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KT...BASED ON THE RECENT SATELLITE
APPEARANCE.  A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
THAT FLEW INTO ODILE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IS SCHEDULED TO MAKE
A PASS THROUGH NORBERT VERY SOON...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER
ASSESSMENT OF THE HURRICANE'S STRENGTH.  THE CREW OF THE AIRCRAFT
IS COMMENDED FOR THE LONG HOURS SPENT ATTEMPTING TO FLYING INTO
BOTH EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONES TODAY.

NORBERT HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST
AROUND 13 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...WHICH BRINGS NORBERT INTO MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE HURRICANE MAKES FINAL
LANDFALL...DESPITE A 12 HOUR FORECAST WHICH MUST ACCOUNT FOR
WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL.  THEREAFTER...NORBERT SHOULD WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO.
MOISTURE FROM NORBERT IS STILL FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 25.2N 110.9W    85 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 27.2N 109.5W    65 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 30.5N 106.8W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
 
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