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Tropical Storm ALMA
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
200 PM PDT THU MAY 29 2008
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE FEATURE IS CROSSING THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR THE CITY OF LEON. THE
CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A VERY TIGHT CONVECTIVE COIL SURROUNDING
THE EYE FEATURE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
55 KNOTS. SINCE THE CENTER IS ALREADY MOVING INLAND AND A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH THE HIGH
TERRAIN...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...TORRENTIAL
RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
ALMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY TURNS THE CYCLONE
NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/2100Z 12.4N 87.0W 55 KT...CROSSING THE COAST
12HR VT 30/0600Z 13.6N 87.3W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 30/1800Z 15.0N 88.0W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/0600Z 16.5N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
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