Tropical Storm POLO

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TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182008
700 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2008
 
AN SSMIS PASS AT 0105 UTC SUGGESTED A TIGHT CIRCULATION IS
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTER OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS...IN COMBINATION
WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT UPGRADING
THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE RECEIVED SHORTLY AND WILL HOPEFULLY PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 280/13.  THERE IS STILL LARGE SPREAD IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND.  THE
HWRF...GFDL AND THE DEEP-LAYER BAM CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE CYCLONE
TO RECURVE AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST OF THE CYCLONE IN MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A WEAKER SHALLOW
CYCLONE THAT DOES NOT FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH.  THESE MODELS...AND THE SHALLOW-LAYER BAM THEREFORE KEEP
THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT...OR FARTHER EAST...COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN AN
ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE TVCN TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE FORWARD
SPEED IS SLOWED TO ABOUT 6 KT AT 120 HOURS DUE TO THE LARGE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME PERIOD.
 
THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO EXTRACT ITSELF FROM THE ITCZ IN THE PAST
FEW HOURS...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SLOW
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITH WARM SSTS AND LIGHT
SHEAR.  THE GFDL...HWRF AND SHIPS ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
CYCLONE...BRINGING IT TO HURRICANE INTENSITY AT THE 72 HOUR
FORECAST TIME.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO A
PEAK OF 60 KT AT 72 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE COULD BE STRONGER
BY THAT TIME IF CURRENT ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS CONTINUE...ALLOWING
THE CYCLONE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 
WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT DAYS 4-5 DUE TO COOLING SSTS AND AN
INCREASE IN SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z  8.9N 111.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z  9.2N 112.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z  9.7N 114.8W    45 KT
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 10.3N 116.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 10.9N 117.9W    55 KT
 72HR VT     06/0000Z 12.0N 120.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     07/0000Z 13.5N 123.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     08/0000Z 15.0N 125.0W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN
 
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