Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
000
FGUS75 KBOU 241710
ESFBOU
COC001-031-035-059-069-087-115-123-050000-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1029 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2009
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOK...AHPS...ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS...
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A STREAM COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE
LEVELS IN THE NEXT 5 MONTHS.
FOR EXAMPLE: THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT DENVER HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF
11 FEET. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE STREAM WILL RISE
ABOVE 6.9 FEET IN THE NEXT 5 MONTHS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES IN FEET AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID APRIL 27 - SEPTEMBER 30 2009
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
----------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
SOUTH PLATTE 7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.5 5.3 5.6
DENVER 11 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.3 6.4 6.9 7.0
HENDERSON 10 6.5 6.6 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.7 8.2 8.4 8.8
KERSEY 10 5.7 6.1 6.5 6.8 7.4 8.0 8.5 8.7 9.6
WELDONA 10 4.4 5.0 5.5 5.8 6.2 7.0 7.5 7.8 8.6
BALZAC 10 4.0 4.1 4.7 5.0 5.7 6.2 6.6 7.2 8.1
JULESBURG 10 4.6 4.9 5.5 5.9 6.5 6.8 7.3 7.8 8.5
PLUM CREEK
SEDALIA 8 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.4
BEAR CREEK
MORRISON 9 6.9 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.4 7.6
SHERIDAN 8 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6
CLEAR CREEK
GOLDEN 10 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.5 7.6 7.8 8.1
DERBY 9 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.7
CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER
FORT COLLINS 9NW 7.5 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.4 6.2
FORT COLLINS 12 4.7 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.9 8.6
GREELEY 9 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 5.6 6.0 8.7
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER OFFICE ISSUES LONG RANGE AHPS
OUTLOOKS FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS. THIS PRODUCT IS UPDATED
NEAR THE END OF EACH MONTH. THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED IN
ADDITION TO THE 5 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER
FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE.
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK
ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED.
THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BOU FOR MORE WEATHER AND RIVER
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.
$$
TH
