Hurricane IKE

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HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008
 
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IKE
RECENTLY REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 965 MB.  DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE CORE OF IKE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION...AND THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT...BUT THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS. 
HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS...RESTRENGTHENING
COULD OCCUR BEFORE ITS SECOND LANDFALL IN CENTRAL OR WESTERN CUBA. 
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS
UNTIL IKE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND AWAY FROM
CUBA. ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
INTENSIFICATION.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BEYOND 48 HR. 
 
IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OUR BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS NOW 275/12.  TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED ABOUT A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TAKING THE CENTER OF IKE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF CUBA
TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW.  ONCE
IN THE GULF...IKE COULD SLOW DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE.  THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SWING BY AND BE
REPLACED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. SUCH
A PATTERN SHOULD FORCE IKE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD. DYNAMICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER RIDGE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH
5...AND NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD.  SINCE
THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTHWARD BUT STILL LIES NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/2100Z 21.4N  79.7W    70 KT
 12HR VT     09/0600Z 21.8N  81.4W    80 KT
 24HR VT     09/1800Z 22.6N  83.2W    80 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     10/0600Z 23.6N  84.8W    75 KT
 48HR VT     10/1800Z 24.4N  86.0W    85 KT
 72HR VT     11/1800Z 25.5N  89.0W    95 KT
 96HR VT     12/1800Z 27.0N  92.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     13/1800Z 29.0N  96.0W    95 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA
 
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