Hurricane IKE

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HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008
 
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IKE
INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE HAS AGAIN INTENSIFIED.  THE PLANE
REPORTED A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 118 KT AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 129
KT.  ADDITIONALLY...CALCULATIONS FROM A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE
NORTHEAST EYEWALL SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 110 KT. BASED
ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT.  WITH
THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER IKE NOW RELAXING AND THE WATERS ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK WARM...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL
IKE REACHES CUBA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.   ONCE OVER LAND...WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE CYCLONE EMERGES BACK OVER WATER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  HOWEVER...ONLY A
SMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE
CORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER AND LESS WEAKENING COULD OCCUR. SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE IKE DEPARTS CUBA SINCE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
 
IKE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF OF
255/13. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING IKE TO MAKE A TURN WESTWARD. IN 3
TO 4 DAYS...AS IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CREATE
A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH OF IKE RESULTING A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CRITICAL PLAYER IN IKE'S EVENTUAL TRACK AT
THE EXTENDED RANGES. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE STILL SPLIT INTO TWO
CAMPS...WITH THE GFDL MODEL SHOWING IKE TURNING NORTHWARD INTO THE
WEAKNESS...WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE
BYPASSING IKE TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. IT IS STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO COMMIT TO EITHER
ONE OF THESE EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
SHIFT IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/2100Z 21.4N  69.7W   115 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 21.2N  71.6W   120 KT
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 21.1N  74.0W   125 KT
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 21.2N  76.5W   120 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
 48HR VT     08/1800Z 21.7N  78.7W    95 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
 72HR VT     09/1800Z 23.0N  82.5W    80 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
 96HR VT     10/1800Z 25.0N  85.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     11/1800Z 26.5N  87.0W   100 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
 
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