Mid-Course Adjustment Overview

Slide 1 - The Question 
  “The committee understands that the 5-year, $1,000,000,000 program will not update all flood maps; some maps will merely be converted to a digital format.  The Committee is concerned that this program was originally portrayed as a means to update all of the Nation’s flood maps.  Because this is not the case, the Committee directs EP&R to provide a report, no later than January 16, 2006, on the percentage of maps that will be updated, not merely transferred to a digital format, and the percentage of population that the updated maps cover.”


Slide 2 -2006 Congressional Report
* Delivered to Congress  February 2006

* Describes the Status of Map Modernization as of Sept 30, 2005

* Describes Mid-Course Adjustment


Slide 3 - 2006 Mid-Course Adjustment Report
* Detailed description of Mid-Course Adjustment Report

* Provides supporting documentation for the Congressional report


Slide 4 - Background
* Rationale for Review and Adjustment:

• Midpoint review appropriate on large initiative

• Introduction of floodplain boundary standard

• Stakeholder request for additional engineering 


Slide 5 - Background
* Rationale for Review and Adjustment:

• Lessons learned from State business plans and  recent disasters

• Updates will occur on a sub-county basis prioritized by risk

• The goal of mapping the Nation remains, but is delayed 


Slide 6 - “New” Metrics Benefits

• Provide more detail in high risk flood prone areas
 
• Action is responsive to:

* Congress (quality vs. quantity)

* Stated Map Coalition positions

* Needs as identified through State business planning process


Slide 7 - Potential Implications

• 90% of census block groups at risk would receive digital flood boundaries

• Low risk areas may not receive digital flood boundaries

• This delays achieving the goal of creating a nationwide digital flood layer and requires additional resources beyond NFIP fees after 2008

• Requires combining new digital data with existing products 

• Requires re-sequencing of projects

• “Validation” becomes the process to document what “needs” a new study – e.g., scoping tool, become data justifying funding beyond 2008


Slide 8 - Current Risk / Funding Calculations For FY05
* Ten County-based variables:
* Population
* Housing Units
* All claims
* Rep Loss Claims
* Rep Loss Properties
* Policies
* Total 100K NHD length
* Predicted population growth to 2015
* Cost limiting factor
* Flood disasters


Slide 9 - Refinement of Analysis
* 210,808 Block groups were analyzed

* Higher geographic resolution than counties and census tracts while more manageable than blocks

* Allows the separation of very low risk areas within a county from higher risk areas



Slide 10 - Risk Parameters for Block Groups

• Population density (Census block group data)
• Housing unit density (Census block group data)
• Claims density (From FIA Claims dataset)
• Repetitive losses claims density (From FIA Claims dataset)
• Repetitive loss properties density (From FIA Claims dataset)
• Policies density (From county distribution)
• Disasters (From county distribution)
• Population Growth from 1990-2000


Slide 11 - Area and Population Targets


Slide 12 - FBMS and Validation Targets


Slide 13 - Lowest 10% Risk Areas


Slide 14 - 330 Counties with all Block Groups of 90%–100% Risk


Slide 15 - Implementation of Mid-Course Adjustment – National Tasks


Slide 16 - End State National Goals


Slide 17 - MHIP:  How is the flood map update sequencing determined?  
High-Level Sequencing Process:


Slide 18 - How is the flood map update sequencing determined?
Regional process:
* Review prior sequencing
* Review State business plans and other input
* Review comments on Region-specific sequencing
* Update sequencing for Region


Slide 19 - FY05-FY09 MHIP (V 1.5) Scope
* MHIP includes revised actual completions and projections for Map Mod Key Performance Indicators; reflecting updated flood map update sequencing from State/Regional business planning efforts

* The MHIP supports FEMA’s performance goal:  Improve safety of the Nation’s population through availability of accurate flood risk data in GIS format


Slide 20 - Upcoming:  Release on FEMA Web Site Planned


Slide 21 - Mid-Course Adjustment Summary
* Regions appear to have adequate funds to allow for implementation

* Changes are likely required for FY06

* Re-work for 03-05 studies likely

* The goal of mapping the Nation remains, but is delayed 


Slide 22 - Mapping Status Tools
* Letter of Final Determination list
* Appendix A of the MHIP v2.0