NOAA
ANNOUNCES U.S. SPRING OUTLOOK
March
15, 2007 � Scientists at NOAA highlighted
near term flooding in portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley and continued
drought in the Southwest as areas of concern from April through June
in the agency’s 2007 Spring Outlook. (Click NOAA image
for larger view of NOAA 2007 National Hydrologic Assessment or flood
risk. Click here
for high resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.”)
“NOAA’s National
Hydrologic Assessment indicates a flooding potential this spring
for southeast Colorado,” said Brig. Gen. David
L. Johnson, U.S. Air Force (Ret.), director of the NOAA
National Weather Service. “The soil moisture is high, due
to the melting of an above normal snowpack, which resulted from record
snowfall in December and January.”
The upper Midwest is currently in the middle of its snowmelt. Warmer
than normal temperatures in recent weeks have increased the risk of
flooding due to ice jams over portions of eastern South Dakota, eastern
Iowa, southeastern Minnesota, southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.
In addition, high soil moisture over northeastern Ohio and northwestern
Pennsylvania and extreme southwestern New York state could lead to flooding
if additional heavy precipitation occurs.
Scientists
at the NOAA National
Climatic Data Center said that precipitation during the December
2006-February 2007 U.S. winter season was above average in much of the
center of the nation. Meanwhile, large sections of the East, Southeast
and West were drier than average. (Click NOAA image for larger
view of NOAA U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook through June 2007. Click
here for high resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.”)
Much of southern California just experienced its driest fall and winter
in more than a century. “With the dry season fast approaching,
there are major concerns that drought conditions will not only fail
to improve but actually worsen in coming months,” said Doug Lecomte,
drought specialist for the NOAA
Climate Prediction Center. “The outlook for any significant
drought improvement from now through spring looks grim for not only
southern California but for much of the Southwest as well.”
In
addition, Florida is approaching its dry season. Abnormally dry winter
weather over the southern half of the peninsula has brought fire danger
indices to abnormally high conditions. (Click NOAA image for
larger view of NOAA spring 2007 precipitation outlook. Click
here for high resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.”)
“The National Interagency Fire
Center’s Seasonal Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for February
through June 2007 calls for the potential for significant wildfire activity
to be higher than normal this spring over portions of the southern tier
of states and northern Minnesota,” said Tom Wordell, Wildland
National Interagency Fire Center fire analyst.
As of March 13, there have been approximately 9,748 wildfires encompassing
137,554 acres. This is 112 percent of the average number of fires, and
63 percent of average total acreage to date.
The U.S.
Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for drought conditions persisting
or intensifying through June over much of the Southwest, potentially
spreading into portions of Utah and western Colorado. Drought conditions
also are expected to persist across peninsular Florida. Some improvement
is predicted over the extreme northern Plains as well as portions of
Texas and Oklahoma.
For the nation as a whole, the U.S. Spring Outlook for April through
June is for increased chances of below-normal precipitation from the
central Rockies into much of Nevada and the southern half of California,
as well as Louisiana, eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma. The remainder
of the country, including Alaska and Hawaii, has equal chances of above,
near or below normal precipitation.
Meanwhile,
above normal temperatures are more likely across a wide area of the
country, from the West through the Plains into the Southeast, while
below normal temperatures are likely for southwest California and Hawaii.
The remainder of the country has equal chances of above, near or below
normal temperature. (Click NOAA image for larger view of NOAA
spring 2007 temperature outlook. Click
here for high resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.”)
An equal chance, either for temperature or precipitation, is predicted
when there are no reliable and skillful signals on which to base the
seasonal outlook.
NOAA wants to remind everyone that springtime weather can often bring
severe storms. NOAA has a variety of weather safety information online
to help keep you safe. Everyone should have a NOAA
Weather Radio All Hazards to stay ahead of the storms.
NOAA, an
agency of the U.S. Commerce Department,
is celebrating 200 years
of science and service to the nation. From the establishment of
the Survey of the Coast in 1807 by Thomas Jefferson to the formation
of the Weather Bureau and the Commission of Fish and Fisheries in the
1870s, much of America's scientific heritage is rooted in NOAA. NOAA
is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through
the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and
information service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental
stewardship of the nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the
emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS),
NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 60 countries and
the European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that
is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.
Relevant Web Sites
NOAA Climate Prediction Center
NOAA
Seasonal Outlooks
NOAA
2007 Hydrologic Assessment
NOAA
National Climatic Data Center
NOAA
Weather Radio All Hazards
Media
Contact:
Carmeyia Gillis, NOAA
Climate Prediction Center, (301) 763-8000 ext. 7163
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