Hurricane KATRINA

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HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122005
1500Z SAT AUG 27 2005
 
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF
THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONCHARTRAIN.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.  INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS IS DISCONTINUED FROM KEY WEST EASTWARD.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  85.0W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  940 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  30SE  30SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT.......130NE  90SE  90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE 100SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  85.0W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N  84.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.6N  86.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE  90SE  90SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.3N  87.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.7N  89.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.6N  89.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 33.0N  89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  75SE  30SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 37.5N  86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 41.5N  80.0W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N  85.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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