Operational El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Observing System

• Originates in the tropical Pacific
• Has a periodicity of 2-7 years
• Affects the global atmospheric circulation
• During the warm phase of ENSO, called "El Niño", sea surface temperatures warm, trade winds collapse, and precipitation patterns shift
• During the cold phase of ENSO, referred to as "La Niña", sea surface temperatures cool and trade winds strengthen

El Niño:

• Warmer winters across the northern US
• Gulf states cooler and wetter
• California can be wetter or drier
• Pacific salmon and other fisheries disrupted
• Fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic
  
  La Niña:
  
• La Niña has equally dramatic, often opposite effects on the US

• Computer models show skill in forecasting tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures one to two years in advance
• ENSO forecasts improve the accuracy of seasonal and longer forecasts over the US
• Potential for billions of dollars in benefits to the US economy in:
  • Agriculture
    
  • Energy generation
    
  • Water resources
    
  • Forestry
    
  • Fisheries
    
  • Transportation
    
  • Commerce
    
  • Public health
    

What is needed?

• Long term operational support for Pacific Ocean observations that are the foundation of skillful ENSO forecasts:
  • Moored buoys
    
  • Drifting buoys
    
  • Volunteer ship temperature probes
    
  • Sea level measurements
    
• Total cost of these ocean observations is $4.9 million per year