Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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000 FXUS63 KLMK 092348 AFDLMK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 740 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION. .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)... FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR A CHANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ALL SHOWERS HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS OF 1845Z SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MORE PRECIP AS SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE INVADES THE AREA. TONIGHT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AS A COOLER AIR MASS HAS MADE IT/S WAY INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER WAVE MAY GENERATE ISLD TO SCT LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE ALL CONTINUING TO INDICATE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWERS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT IN NATURE AND CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH DRY WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE DAY. THE SHORTWAVE THAT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION...BUT FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE BUILDING IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S ON MONDAY AS CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BRING THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE TIMING ON THIS FEATURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME IS TO END RAIN CHANCES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP A BIT TO MATCH SLIGHTLY BETTER WITH THE FASTER GFS AND ENSEMBLES. THEREFORE IT LOOKS LIKE MOST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ENDED BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. && .AVIATION (00Z TAFS)... EXPECT VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD AS MID MISISSIPPI VALLEY HIGH PRES EXPANDS INTO THE LOWER OH VLY. WITH CONTINUED ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR (LOWER DEWPOINTS)...NOT EXPECTING FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT DESPITE AMPLE GROUND MOISTURE. MAY BE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG BY SUN MRNG. A LIGHT NLY COMPONENT OF WIND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AML LONG TERM....EES AVIATION....DK
