Weekly Forecasts of Tropical Convection and SST using a Coupled Linear Inverse Model (C-LIM)
(Experimental NOAA/ESRL PSD and CIRES/CDC Forecast)
C-LIM VERSION 1.1: updated SST dataset and more recent forecast initialization.
Forecasts:
- Weeks 1-5
- Weeks 12,16,20,24,28
- Separation of OLR and SST anomalies into coupled and uncoupled fields, 1982-present
- How we make these Tropical forecasts
One extra benefit of the C-LIM is that the eigenvectors of its dynamical evolution operator separate into two distinct, but nonorthogonal, subspaces: one governing the nearly uncoupled subseasonal dynamics, and the other governing the strongly coupled longer term dynamics. This results in a dynamically-based filter that, unlike bandpass or EOF-based filtering, can distinguish between variability having similar spatial structures but very different time scales due to differences between coupled air-sea and internal atmospheric dynamics. We project the tropical data onto these two subspaces, producing a real-time clean split of OLR and SST anomalies into subseasonal variations including the MJO ("internal"), and longer term variations including ENSO ("coupled"). Hovmullers of the two filtered datasets are updated daily; also available is an atlas of the C-LIM filtered data going back to 1982.
For a detailed description of the C-LIM, see:
Standard disclaimer: these forecasts are experimental. NOAA/PSD and CIRES/CDC are not responsible for any loss occasioned by the use of these forecasts.