Geomagnetic Probability forecasts are forecasts of the likelihood (from 1% to 99%) that the daily geomagnetic activity level will reach a particular activity category. The four categories are Quiet to Unsettled, Active, Minor Storm, and Major to Severe Storm. The geomagnetic category assigned to a day is determined by the highest observed k-index for the day. Quiet to Unsettled = k 0 to k 3, Active = k 4, Minor Storm = k 5, and Major to Severe Storm = k 6 to k 9. Middle-latitude forecasts are verified against Fredericksburg, VA observations and High-latitude forecasts are verified against College, AK observations. Forecast lead times range from one to three days.
Middle Latitude Geomagnetic Probability Forecasts
Statistics Summary Tables
Middle Latitude Ranked Probability Score Plot
Middle Latitude Reliability, Resolution 1, Resolution 2 Plot
High Latitude Ranked Probability Score Plot
High Latitude Reliability, Resolution 1, Resolution 2 Plot