NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center

Fredericksburg A-index Forecast Verification

Verification Quick Links
Verification Home, K5 Warnings, K6 Warnings, Proton Warnings,
F10.7 Solar Flux, M-class Flares, X-class Flares, 10 MeV Proton Events,
USAF Estimated Ap, Fredericksburg A, Geomagnetic Probabilities,
Glossary, Bibliography

Forecasts of Fredericksburg A index are integer forecasts of the observed daily (24 hour) geomagnetic A index at Fredericksburg, VA. Forecast lead times range from 1-day to 7-days. Verification results are provided on forecasts from July 1986(the beginning of solar cycle 22) through December 2006.

Stats Table Thumbnail Statistics Summary Tables

Observations Thumbnail Fredericksburg A-index Observed Plot

Joint Distribution Thumbnail Joint Distribution of Forecasts and Observations Plot

Quantile Thumbnail Conditional Quantile Plot

Stack Plot Thumbnail Forecast Mean Error, RMS Error, and Linear Association Plot

Skill Thumbnail Forecast Skill vs Lead Time