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AGXX40 KNHC 070623 RRA
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT THU MAY O7 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN E TO W RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
THROUGH EARLY MON THEN IT WILL RETRACT E TO THE CENTRAL WATERS
ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF MON AND SATLLING
ALONG 28N MON NIGHT. EXPECT SE TO S 15 TO 20 KT WINDS OVER THE W
CENTRAL AND NW WATERS...EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KT OVER MOST OF
THE REMAINDER FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 KT
RIGHT ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS...AND AROUND THE OCCASIONAL WEAK HIGH
CENTER THAT WILL FORM ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EXTREME E
CENTRAL PORTION JUST W OF TAMPA BAY.

SW N ATLC...
A BROAD LOW LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DRIFTING W OVER THE WATERS
BETWEEN 70W AND 76W IS NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER
AS A REINFORCING UPPER TROUGH SWINGS RAPIDLY E ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND SHOULD PROLONG THE DECAY OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
CYCLONE NEAR 26N72.5W. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A REFLECTED
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE TILL LATE FRI OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FLARE ONLY E OF THE TROUGH SO MAY
NOT SEE ANY SHOWERS IN THE BAHAMAS...BUT OVER THE ATLC JUST E OF
THE ISLANDS. LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT MOVE THE RIDGE AXIS
SOUTHWARD AS FAST PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. NEW TIMING IS FOR RIDGE
TO LIE E TO W ALONG 28N SAT AND ALONG 27N SUN THEN SHIFT BACK N
TO ALONG 28N MON. FOR THE WATERS S OF 22.5N...THIS WILL MAINTAIN
ELY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH SAT...THEN INCREASE BRIEFLY TO
15 TO 20 KT SUN...THEN DIMINISH TO 15 KT MON AS RIDGE SHIFTS A
LITTLE N. ELSEWHERE S OF THE RIDGE ELY WINDS IN 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE EXCEPT 5 TO 10 KT EXTREME NW BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE MORE THAN 15 KT SLY WINDS N OF THE RIDGE
THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
A BROAD LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W SHOULD
BECOME DIFFUSE LATER TODAY. THE FRESH E TRADE WINDS CURRENTLY
THE AREA E OF 70W IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD W ACROSS MOST THE AREA
AS THE ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND LIES E TO W ALONG 27N TO 28N
THROUGH MON. EASTERLY WINDS TO THE LEE OF CUBA WILL REMAIN AT 10
TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND AND SEAS
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA HAVE RETURNED AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.






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